Morning Note – 2/21/19

Fun Fact & Considerations–  With yesteday’s close, the S&P 500 is up 18.44% from the Christmas Eve close. This is the exact move that we saw from August of 2017 to January 26 of last year from where stocks began a nasty correction. As Yogi Berra would say, “Deja vous all over again?” In After…

Fun Fact & Considerations–  With yesteday’s close, the S&P 500 is up 18.44% from the Christmas Eve close. This is the exact move that we saw from August of 2017 to January 26 of last year from where stocks began a nasty correction. As Yogi Berra would say, “Deja vous all over again?”

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck This Week:  Two on deck were scheduled for this week including  Acamar Partners Acquisition and DiamondPeak Holdings

IPOs on deck for Today: None of note.

Secondaries on deck:   ADIL of note. 

Senior Notes on deck: AM of note.

IPO Filings Announced After The Close  No common stock offerings filed today.  Potential for Lyft to file next week.

Announcements For Secondary Filings & Financings  CBS files senior notes. SAND files mixed shelf offering.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: Y +0.96, EIG +0.63, ROG +0.40, KALU +0.25, CAR +0.20, CDE +0.18, TS +0.18, CYH +0.17, XEC +0.17, LOPE +0.14, SAM +0.13, MMI +0.13, QEP +0.12, SNPS +0.11, WK +0.10, GDDY +0.10, CHE +0.09, ATR +0.07, VIPS +0.07, JACK +0.07, GDOT +0.06, ALB +0.06, OR +0.06, ESRT +0.06, NUVA +0.06, EFX +0.06, IVR +0.05, O +0.05, PI +0.05, CONE +0.04, TRN +0.04, CBLK +0.04, CECO +0.04, PEGA +0.04, NE +0.03, A +0.03, EVTC +0.02, SRC +0.02, EXR +0.02, LASR +0.02, RBBN +0.01, RPT +0.01, SITC +0.01, ICLR +0.01


Missed: SUN (1.78), TMST (0.85), FTI (0.47), TSLX (0.31), CUTR (0.26), NDSN (0.21), CAI (0.18), ET (0.13), RGR (0.10), GHDX (0.07), SPTN (0.06), SEDG (0.06), AXTI (0.05), INOV (0.04), ES (0.03), VMI (0.03), WPX (0.03), MANT (0.02), CAKE (0.02), IAG (0.02), SM (0.02), WRI (0.02), OGS (0.01)

News After The Close:

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker plans to sell $2 billion in bonds to fund retirement system.

Raymond James (RJF) sees assets grow to $765.2 billion which is an increase of 5% over December and 2% a year ago.

Lyft to file IPO as early as next week and will list on NASDAQ.

Carbon Black (CBLK) CFO Mark Sullivan to resign as of March 11th.

Fitch places the United Kingdom “AA” IDRs on rating watch as a negative.

Sailpoint (SAIL) postpones Q4 release and call due to implementation of ASC 606.

Canopy Growth (CGC) files ammends EBITDA for nine months ended 12/31/18 from $69 million to $155 million.

Dividend Increase: FL XEC KRO RMAX NTES

Stock Repurchase Announcement: LEE

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Intraday action remains strong since the beginning of the year with the last two weeks have seen mixed action. Early is better this week and the afternoon is being sold.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures have turned lower after trading in range of 18 points as we came into 6:00 a.m. EST.

U.S. futures: S&P -3.75, Dow Jones -25,  NDX -3.75 and Russell 2000 -1.00  with fair values LOWER ADDING TO OPEN  Asia higher  and Europe mixed (for country change click through)

Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude higher and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.98 with yields higher since Wednesday morning with the yield at 2.672% from 2.632%. Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Wednesday: Industrials, Materials, Consumer Goods and Financials.

Weakest Sectors Wednesday: Healthcare.

One Month Winners:  Industrial Goods, Technology, Utilities,  Consumer Goods and Services.

Three Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Utilities and Services.

Six Month Winners: Utilities and Healthcare.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Healthcare, Conglomerates and Services.

Year to Date: All higher led by Industrial Goods, Conglomerates, Materials, Services, Technology and Financials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest):


Friday Before The Open:  RY MGA WPC W COG PNW ITT USM CNK TDS AN B COT ERF ETM of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates: SGMS +2.13 VC +.49 SCL +.21 DLPH +.19 NEM +.14 DIN +.13 HEES +.13 MCRN +.11 ITGR +.10 COMM +.08 ROCK +.07 PWR +.06 NCLH +.05.


Missed Estimates:  RS (0.68) CSTM (0.53) SATS (0.18) BG (0.14) DPZ (0.07) UNT (0.04).

Rags & Mags:

Top Story:  U.S. and China are drawing up 6 Memorandum of Understanding on structural issues. (Bloomberg)

5 Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg) –  European PMI slows, Trade talk attempt building blocks, ECB notes out and markets mixed.

Despite the potential MOUs both President Trump and President Xi being pressured to take a tough stance at talks. (WSJ)

President Trump and European Union are far apart on deal to avoid auto tariffs. (Bloomberg)

Eurozone PMI fell to 49.2 for February which is impacting the FTSE of -0.70%. (FXstreet)

EU’s Jean Claude Juncker calls Brexit a “disaster”. (Bloomberg)

Nike (NKE) falls as Duke Basketball player Zion Williamson shoe brokoe apart causing injury to his knee. (USA Today)

Healthcare venture between Amazon (AMZN), Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) and J.P. Morgan (JPM) focusing on complexity of healthcare. (WSJ)

CNBC Interview with Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard. Believes that rate hikes and balance sheet reduction will come to end. (CNBC)

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 1777 stocks rise and 1123 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1684 rise and 1433 fall.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 day simple moving average and now above its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is also above its 50 day simple moving average  and also above its 200 day simple moving average.  All three indexes are now above their 5, 10 and 20 day moving averages. 

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell which right now seems a long ways off. 

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  86% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 2/8/19 close with next update on 2/15/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.


Last week ended on a strong note. It is a strong week so far as stocks continue to advance.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related: 

API Petroleum Institute Data  out at 4:30 p.m. EST yesterday and saw Crude Oil build by 3.2 mln barrels with Gasoline drawing 1.1 million barrels.

Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.

December Durable Goods due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and expected to rise to 0.2% from -0.3%.

February Philadelphia Fed Index due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and expected to fall to 12 from 17.

January Existing Home Sales due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to rise to 5.05 million from 4.99 million.

January Leading Indicators due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to 0.1% from -0.1%.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories due out at 11:00 a.m. EST.


China Mid Level Trade Talks continue in Washington D.C. this week.

The House Committee on Oversight and Reform to question President Trump’s Attorney Michael Cohen on 2/27/19 at 10:00 a.m. EST.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: ITRI (conference call), PRPO (update), VZ (investor meeting) RGNX (investor day). TFSL (investor meeting).

Sellside Conferences: Citi Global Industrials Conference. Barlcays Select Industrials Conference.

Industry Conferences: Consumer Analysts Group of New York Conference.

M&A News & Rumors:

PVH Corp (PVH) buys Gazal Corporation.

Significant Upgrades (to buy) & Downgrades (to sell or underweight)

Few upgrades or downgrades today. No major firms with recommendations?

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners: IMDZ +306%, SRCI +16%, CAR +12%, CYH +12%, CSTM +11%, TNK +8%, HTZ +6%, PEGA +6%, ALB +6%, LOPE +5%, JACK +4%

Losers: BLK -20%, SPTN -11%, LASR -8%, VIPS -8%, FTI -8%, FLS -7%, NAVI -6%, EVTC -5%, XPER -5%, MIC -5%,