CAPIS Morning Note – 5/29/24: Conoco to Buy Marathon Oil. Stocks Lower As Yields Are Spiking.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.02% at 5306.04 from Friday higher by 0.70% at 5304.72. The overnight high was hit at 5,330.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5288.75 at 5:40 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 42 points. The current price is 5295 at 6:35 a.m. EDT…

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.02% at 5306.04 from Friday higher by 0.70% at 5304.72. The overnight high was hit at 5,330.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5288.75 at 5:40 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 42 points. The current price is 5295 at 6:35 a.m. EDT down by -29.75.

Executive Summary.
  • Treasury holds a 7-Year Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Fed Beige Book is out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
Earnings Out After The Close
  • Beats:   CAVA +0.08, HEI +0.07, APPS +0.05, BOX +0.03 of note.
  • Flat:   None of note.
  • Misses:  None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: KDLY
  • New SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed:
  • Secondaries Files or Priced:
    •  CCCS priced50 million shares at $11.50.
    • FTAI secondary offering of 2,090,561 shares.
    • INSM proposed $500 million offering of common stock.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • MRUS filed a proposed public offering of $300 million of common stock.
    • NKTR filed a proposed public offering of 25 million shares of common stock.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • ALRM prices $425 million of convertible senior notes due 2029.
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    •   ARQ files for 2,142,858 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    •   PR files for 6.242 mln share offering by selling shareholders.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • HSY announced debt filing.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BFST: Filed a $180 Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • RENT: Filed a $40 Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Rights Offering:
  • PIPE:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • MCHP files a $1.1 billion convertible offering due in 2030.
  • Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • Biggest Gainers and Losers:
    • ODMA +18.3%, HOOD +5.3%, TITN +3.6%,  HEI +3.3%, DRS +2.2%, .  
    • AAL -8.3%, APPS -7.6%, CCCS -3.3%, NKTR -3.3%, CAVA -2.6%,. 
  • News Items After the Close & Weekend:
    • American Airlines (AAL) lowers guidance for Q2 to $1.00 to $1.15 from $1.15 to $1.45.
    • United Airlines (UAL) reaffirms their guidance despite American weaker guidance.
    • Palomar Holdings (PLMR) raised guidance to $122-$128 million from $113-$118 million.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • HOOD has filed to buyback up to $1 billion of common shares.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    •  GSL initiates a quarterly dividend of $0.075.
    • Stocks Ex Div Today: HD QCOM GS VLO XYL CHE SSTK
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • NBIX announces that Kevin Gorman, Ph.D., will retire as CEO on October 11, 2024; Kyle Gano, Ph.D., currently the company’s Chief Business Development and Strategy Officer, will succeed him as CEO.
    • AVNW appoints Michael Connaway as Chief Financial Officer, effective as of today.
    • WHD names Jay Nutt as EVP, CFO and Treasurer. 
    • WOOF names James Roth as Chief Stores Officer. 

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value. Futures on the Dow -209, S&P 500 -32, NASDAQ -124 and Russell +8.63. Asia and Europe are lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 13.84 from 13.36 from a day agoGold lower, Silver higher and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.5639% from 4.465%  yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the YenBitcoin is at $67,875 from $68,298 lower by -0.60% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Technology and Communication Services of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors:  Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Utilities, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials Financials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: All led by Utilities, Technology, Energy,  Materials, Financials and Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Industrials and Financials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials,  Industrials, and Consumer Cyclicals of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Energy, Utilities, Technology, Financials, Industrials and Consumer Defensive of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close:   

  • Thursday Before The Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  DKS +0.34 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses:  VIK -0.77, BMO -0.18, CMCO -0.09, AAP -0.01 of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance:   None of note.
  • Negative Guidance:  None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+4% or down more than -4%):

  • Gap Up: OOMA +17%, ALRM +3.9%, HOOD +3.3%, CATY +3.1%, PRTA +2.4%, DRS +2.2%, TKR +2.2%, TITN +2.1%, FMC +2.1% of note.
  • Gap Down: APPS -9.4%, AAL -8.2%, YY -7.4%, ARQ -3.8%, CCCS -3.3%, FTAI -3.1%, NBIX -2.9%, CAVA -2.9%, NKTR -2.7%, INSM -2.1% of note.

Insider Action:   There is no Insider buying with dumb short selling.   SSTK sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: ConocoPhillips to buy Marathon Oil in $17 billion deal. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: COP MRO HOOD. (CNBC)
  • Market Wrap: Stocks slide with bonds after yields spike. (Bloomberg)
  • ANF posts its strongest first quarter ever. (CNBC)
  • Global debt now at $315 trillion. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update: Score at 73% from 66%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • There is no Daily Briefing scheduled today.
    • President Biden heads to Philadelphia for campaign events at 1:30 p.m. and 3:15 p.m.


  • The Latest Federal Reserve Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
  • MBA Mortgage Applications were out at 7:00 a.m. EDT and fell -5.7%.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams speaks at 1:45 p.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

  • ConocoPhilips (COP) to buy Marathon Oil (MRO) in $17 billion deal.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Key Banc Industrials and Materials Conference
    • Stifel Tailoring Genese Genetic Medicine Forum
    • TD Cowen Oncology Innovation Summit
    • Wells Fargo West Coast MedTech Tour
  • Top Shareholder Meetings:ALKS, ANRO, APCX, BIG, BNOX, BTAI, CART, CG, CVX, DG, DOCU, FUSN, GGR,
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AURA, BBIO, BHVN, EPRX, LTRN, PBI, TOST, VSTO, ZBH
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: BHVN ARWR
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:
    • ASCO begins.
    • Leerink Partners Healthcare Crossroads Conference
    • The Mining Investment Event
    • Spinal Cord Injury Investor Symposium

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

  • Downgrades TPVG OZK GSBD SAGE