CAPIS Morning Note – 2/26/21: Futures Higher Now, But Lower Earlier – Can It Hold Today?

Covid-19 Statistics:  Total Cases 28,150,738 from 28,075,173 Deaths 498,208 from 495,070 New Tests 1,837,743 from 1,464,714 New Cases 75,565 from 73,258 with positivity rate of 4.1% (down 0.9) Daily Deaths 3,138 Current Hospitalizations 52,669 from 54,118 Earnings Out After The Close Of Note: Beats: CABO +5.48, AXON +0.64, DELL +0.56, ACHC +0.50, NNI +0.45, ETSY +0.38,…

Covid-19 Statistics: 

Total Cases 28,150,738 from 28,075,173

Deaths 498,208 from 495,070

New Tests 1,837,743 from 1,464,714

New Cases 75,565 from 73,258 with positivity rate of 4.1% (down 0.9)

Daily Deaths 3,138

Current Hospitalizations 52,669 from 54,118

Earnings Out After The Close Of Note:

Beats: CABO +5.48, AXON +0.64, DELL +0.56, ACHC +0.50, NNI +0.45, ETSY +0.38, EOG +0.35, CRM +0.29, ENDP +0.27, GKOS +0.27, HPQ +0.26, ICUI +0.26, MNST +0.26, SEM +0.26, RKT +0.26, GRPN +0.24, ICFI +0.23, WSC +0.22, SFM +0.21, SWX +0.18, ALRM +0.18, WDAY +0.18, ALTR +0.17, NKLA +0.17, VMW +0.17, FIX +0.15, NTUS +0.15, STAY +0.13, BAND +0.12, SUPN +0.12, FOXF +0.11, ADSK +0.11, ERIE +0.11, MRTX +0.11, KWR +0.11, SAIL +0.10, NKTR +0.10, MTZ +0.09, FTCH +0.09, SHAK +0.09, CWK +0.08, ECOL +0.08, MDRX +0.08, ADUS +0.08, MAIN +0.08, EIX +0.06, OGS +0.06, PBA +0.06, LNTH +0.06, ONEM +0.06, FOE +0.06, WW +0.06, PK +0.06, LMAT +0.05, CUBE +0.05, AGO +0.05, HCAT +0.04, ATSG +0.04, ENV +0.04, BMRN +0.03, NPTN +0.03, SWN +0.03, VICR +0.03, NUVA +0.03, SPCE +0.02, FSR +0.02, ZS +0.02, PETQ +0.02, ACMR +0.02, FND +0.02, RMAX +0.02, RLJ +0.02, AMH +0.01, AXNX +0.01, FSLR +0.01, LHCG +0.01, PAGS +0.01, OUT +0.01

Flat:   BLI +0.00, IRTC +0.00, MED +0.00, ZIXI +0.00

Misses: LYV (5.86), ABNB (2.43), DASH (2.36), RUN (1.05), ROOT (1.03), COLL (0.77), HHC (0.60), UHS (0.46), ADT (0.43), FTAI (0.43), XLRN (0.40), CVNA (0.38), CZR (0.31), ZGNX (0.26), TPIC (0.24), NTRA (0.23), BYND (0.22), LPSN (0.21), INT (0.21), KAMN (0.20), PTCT (0.18), DRQ (0.12), PBYI (0.05), PVG (0.05), IOVA (0.03), STOR (0.02), KTOS (0.02), CLI (0.02), PRAA (0.01), NDLS (0.01), VLDR (0.01), ZIOP (0.01)

 Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced or News: 

New SPACs launched: None of note

Secondaries Priced: GTES of note.

Notes Priced of note: CQP of note.

Common Stock filings: STRM APAM  of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: GRPN AVB AKBA SPG of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Summary From The Trade Exchange bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box.

News After The Close:

Beyond Meat (BYND) announces deals with McDonalds (MCD) and Yum!Brands (YUM).

Survey Monkey (SVMK) CFO Debbie Clifford moves to Autodesk (ADSK) as CFO.

Slack (WORK) raises guidance.

AT&T (T) and TPG Capital for new venture to operate Video Business Unit valued at $16.25 billion.

Tesla (TSLA) to up production of Model S/X as demand is high. (Electrek)

Dividend Raises: FIX WSBC EOG CCK WERN LAMR CNS  RKT (Special Dividend)

Split Announcement:

Raises Guidance: SEM

Lowers Guidance: ADSK SAIL

Stock Buyback New Or Increase: CCK

Insider Buys: INCY OLED F UPS PRTA ANAB ABT ATEX (source The Trade Exchange)

Erlanger Valuelines: Volatility is on the rise as noted by the blue highlighting on the EVL Range rising. Updated 2/24

Hourly Action – Updated 2/23 close. Trading remains mixed with 4 hours up and 3 down.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. Quick comment -Futures are lower this morning. The low overnight on the S&P 500 was at 6:00 a.m. EST.

S&P 500 +16  Dow Jones Industrial Average –18   NASDAQ +118  Russell 2000 +2.43 . Fair values are higher ex the Russell. Asia and Europe lower. VIX is at 27.77 from 24.35 this morning in futures. VIX closed at 28.89 from 23.11 and the three month futures at 30.24 from 27.12.

Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $132.70 from $134.56  with the yield at 1.46% from 1.454%. Note yesterday hit 1.60%.

Positive Sectors On Thursday:  None of note.

Negative Sectors On Thursday: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Communication.

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Energy, Materials, Healthcare and Financials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)


Friday Before the Open: PEG, DKNG, EVRG, BLDR, LAMR, QRTEA, FL, CRON, PNM, RHP, MODV, FLR of note.

 Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beats: AMCX +2.18, QRTEA +0.83, SSP +0.44, SLCA +0.40, BLDR +0.36, LAMR +0.30, FL +0.20, PNM +0.06, EVRG +0.03, AMRX +0.01, PEG +0.01, NWN +0.01

Flat: none

Misses: FLR (1.10), MODV (0.54), CNK (0.53), CRI (0.27), CRON (0.21), DKNG (0.20), STRA (0.11)

Still to Report: HMSY, RHP

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart/Table –Updated through 2/25. Breadth continues to deteriorate. A precursor or noise?


Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap up:

AMRX +18%, SEM +14%, AMRK +12%, LPSN +11%, EB +9%, IHRT +9%, SFM +8%, GRPN +7%, RKT +7%, RILY +7%, CLI +6%, STC +6%, NTRA +6%, ZS +5%, ALLO +5%, ETSY +5%, ECOL +4%

Gap down:

CDA -25%, MDRX -16%, SPCE -14%, FIX -13%, ENV -12%, DASH -12%, TPIC -10%, GNMK -10%, WATT -9%, ADT -9%, FL -9%, IOVA -9%, ENDP -8%, BNGO -8%, ATSG -8%, SUPN -8%, ROOT -8%, NXE -7%, ZIXI -7%, WDAY -7%, KTOS -6%, REGI -6%, APPS -6%, FCH -6%, LHCG -6%, PLUG -6%, ADT -5%, VLDR -5%, ZGNX -4%, CRM -4%, STAY -4%, STRA -4%, WW -4%, MED -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves –FL BYND DASH  (CNBC)

Covid Update: U.S. government buy 100k of doses of Eli Lilly antibody treatment. (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens (CNBC)

U.S. conducts an airstrike in Syria against Iranian rebels. (WSJ)

House to pass the Stimulus Bill today. (CNBC)

10 year yields back of high of 1.60% yesterday. (CNBC)

Petrbras (PBR) CEO to resign as predicts a couple days ago here. (WSJ)

Nikola (NKLA) completes an internal review. (FT)

Current through 2/25 close. Overall confidence moves from 87% to 40%.

Bold means a change from prior day.

2/25 results.


The President and The First Lady depart the White House en route Joint Base Andrews, South Lawn, 9:40 a.m. EST

Press Briefing by White House COVID-19 Response Team and public health officials, The White House, 11:00 a.m. EST

Press Secretary Jen Psaki and Homeland Security Advisor and Deputy National Security Advisor Dr. Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall Gaggle on Air Force One, Joint Base Andrews, 11:30 a.m. EST

The President tours Harris County Emergency Operations Center, Harris County Emergency Operations Center, Houston, TX, 1:55 p.m. EST

The President and The First Lady tour Houston Food Bank and meet volunteers, Houston Food Bank, 3:20 p.m. EST

The President delivers remarks at the FEMA COVID-19 vaccination facility at NRG Stadium; The First Lady also attends, NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas, 6:00 p.m. EST

Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on the Solarwinds (SWI) hacking by the Russian at 9:00 a.m. EST.


Core PCE for January (which Fed follows) out at 8:30 a.m. EST was up 0.3% which fine and indicating we are not running too hot.

January Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 2.3% from -0.2%. Up 10% with spending up 2.4%, $600 payment impacted this number.

February Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 60 from 63.8.

February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final) is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 76.4 from 79.

Investor, Sellside and Industry Meetings

 SAIL  (Analyst Day) AMGN JADSF(C Call) HGEND (Fireside Chat with Cantor Fitzgerald)

Sellside Confrerences: SVB Leerink 10th Annual Global Healthcare Conference (2/22-2/26)  Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum (2/24-2/26)

Industry Conferences:

M&A Activity:

Axonics Modulation (AXNX) buy Contura for $200 million in cash and stock.

Digital Turbine (AAPS) buys AdColony from Otello for $400 million.

Upgrades & Downgrades of Note This Morning: Note that downgrades remain prevalent in February. 

Thursday’s Sellside Recommendations below.