CAPIS Morning Note – 2/25/21: The Word of The Day: Volatility, Futures Lower
Covid-19 Statistics: Total Cases 28,075,173 from 28,000,689 Deaths 495,070 from 492,578 New Tests 1,464,714 from 1,188,609 New Cases 73,258 from 67,879 with positivity rate of 5.0% (down 0.7) Daily Deaths 2,447 Current Hospitalizations 54,118 from 55,058 Earnings Out After The Close Of Note: Beats: BKNG +3.65, NVDA +1.12, LB +0.92, KW +0.83, FNF +0.69, ANSS +0.41,…
Covid-19 Statistics:
Total Cases 28,075,173 from 28,000,689
Deaths 495,070 from 492,578
New Tests 1,464,714 from 1,188,609
New Cases 73,258 from 67,879 with positivity rate of 5.0% (down 0.7)
Daily Deaths 2,447
Current Hospitalizations 54,118 from 55,058
Earnings Out After The Close Of Note:
Beats: BKNG +3.65, NVDA +1.12, LB +0.92, KW +0.83, FNF +0.69, ANSS +0.41, UFPI +0.29, PDCE +0.22, OII +0.22, DRH +0.17, OR +0.16, UPLD +0.16, RVLV +0.15, NVRO +0.14, SRI +0.12, MMSI +0.11, ESTC +0.11, CCRN +0.10, TNDM +0.10, NTNX +0.10, DOOR +0.09, NTAP +0.09, APA +0.09, PSA +0.08, GEF +0.08, SJI +0.08, RDFN +0.07, SPTN +0.07, KALU +0.07, CDNA +0.06, RDN +0.06, CW +0.05, ACAD +0.05, PRDO +0.05, ORA +0.04, PSTG +0.04, STAA +0.04, UNVR +0.03, VIAC +0.03, INGN +0.03, MGNI +0.03, TRUE +0.03, ESI +0.03, AMED +0.02, AGI +0.02, AWK +0.01, WHD +0.01, WTRG +0.01, RCII +0.01, TWNK +0.01
Flat: CNXN +0.00, PING +0.00, PGNY +0.00
Misses: TDOC (2.80), ECPG (0.83), GH (0.47), FATE (0.23), HCC (0.22), FTI (0.16), BILI (0.16), VAPO (0.15), IIPR (0.14), ACA (0.09), CHDN (0.08), SGMO (0.07), PLMR (0.06), ADPT (0.04), EPR (0.04), GBT (0.03), VAC (0.03)
Capital Raises:
IPOs Priced or News:
New SPACs launched:
Secondaries Priced: TROX ADMS RCEL GPRE of note.
Notes Priced of note: SPOT CHEF HALO GPRE of note.
Common Stock filings: IFRX RCEL ADMS of note.
Selling Shareholders of note: ANSS of note.
Mixed Shelf Offerings: WMB BCOV of note.
Convertible Offering Files: GPRE CHEF LMPX of note.
Summary From The Trade Exchange bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box.
News After The Close:
In after hours, GameStop (GME) traded up to $147. Other Reddit/Robinhood/Speculative Names rose as well AMC KOSS as examples.
Dividend Increases: AMH CLNC SWX EBSB AGI KDP
Split Announcement:
Raises Guidance: RCII CR
Lowers Guidance: CW
Stock Buyback New Or Increase: NBHC
Insider Buys: INCY (source The Trade Exchange)
Hourly Action – Updated 2/23 close. Trading remains mixed with 4 hours up and 3 down.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. Quick comment -Futures are lower this morning. The low overnight on the S&P 500 was at 6:00 a.m. EST.
S&P 500 – Dow Jones Industrial Average – NASDAQ – Russell 2000 . Fair values are higher ex the Russell. Asia higher and Europe mixed. VIX is at 24.35 from 25.75 this morning in futures. VIX closed at from 23.11 and the three month futures at from 27.12
Gold lower with silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $134.56 from $135.38 with the yield at 1.454% from 1.36%.
Positive Sectors On Wednesday: Energy, Financials and Industrials of note.
Negative Sectors On Wednesday: Utilities and Consumer Defensive.
One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials of note.
Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.
Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.
Year to Date: Energy, Materials, Healthcare and Financials of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Today After the Close: CRM, ABNB, DASH, WDAY, ADSK, VMW, DELL, CVNA, MNST, RKT, HPQ, EOG, ZS, ETSY, FTCH, EIX, PAGS, LYV, CZR of note.
Friday Before the Open: PEG, DKNG, EVRG, BLDR, LAMR, QRTEA, FL, CRON, PNM, RHP, MODV, FLR of note.
Earnings This Morning Of Note:
Beats: LAUR +1.37, SAFM +0.91, GTN +0.89, CM +0.78, BBY +0.54, FCN +0.44, TREE +0.39, VIPS +0.39, TD +0.36, W +0.33, SRE +0.33, SJM +0.24, GIL +0.23, PWR +0.23, TFX +0.20, SEAS +0.16, FLIR +0.16, CSTM +0.16, SWTX +0.16, MGPI +0.13, GOLF +0.13, DEN +0.13, WBT +0.12, TMX +0.11, CNP +0.08, AEP +0.08, EXLS +0.08, LI +0.07, AMRN +0.07, NLSN +0.07, SHOO +0.06, AAON +0.06, CLVT +0.05, WWW +0.04, AES +0.04, ACIW +0.04, PRG +0.04, PLAN +0.03, HSC +0.03, EVOP +0.02, SPNS +0.02, TGP +0.02, EME +0.02, VGR +0.02, ICPT +0.01, STWD +0.01, DCI +0.01
Flat: CGEN +0.00, NOMD +0.00
Misses: PLUG (1.00), PLTK (0.94), RCKT (0.58), NTES (0.57), REZI (0.51), CARS (0.38), CCOI (0.37), MRNA (0.33), BUD (0.33), INSM (0.32), TNK (0.26), NCLH (0.17), EDIT (0.14), AMWD (0.13), DPZ (0.13), AGIO (0.10), NVCR (0.08), NTLA (0.08), PZZA (0.08), AMT (0.06), SRCL (0.05), CLF (0.04), ROCK (0.04), KL (0.02), OGE (0.02), KDP (0.01)
Still to Report: CWT, CWH, FSS, MLCO, PCRX, PRFT, DOC, PRMW, SWI, TNC, TRS, USPH
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart/Table –Updated through 2/24. Breadth continues to deteriorate. A precursor or noise?
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
Gap up:
KOSS +59%, GME +55%, CCRN +26%, AMC +17%, EXPR +17%, TS +15%, TNDM +14%, JOE +12%, SELB +11%, BILI +11%, RCII +8%, ANGI +8%, MAXR +7%, RVLV +7%, OII +6%, MRNA +6%, VIPS +6%, AES +5%, RFL +5%, GTHX +5%, BB +5%, KDP +5%, CERS +4%, LI +4%, UFPI +4%, PSTG +4%, CLNC +4%, FNF +4%, DRH +4%, OGE +4%, NTNX +4%.
Gap down:
PING -14%, WHD -11.2%, PGNY -8.7%, RCEL -8.4%, ORA -7.5%, ECPG -6.8%, TDOC -6.5%, NTAP -6.4%, GPRE -5.9%, ADMS -5.9%, GBT -5.5%, BUD -5.3%, AMED -4.8%, ACA -4.7%, LMPX -4%
Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – GME KOSS W (CNBC)
Biggest Analyst Calls – NKE DIS T SQ NVDA (CNBC)
Covid Update: Vaccine passports being considered. (CNBC)
5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens (CNBC)
10 Year Yield moves to 1.45% the highest level in a year. (CNBC)
Reddit/Robinhood stocks are going crazy. (CNBC)
Federal Reserve systems were back up after a four hour outage. (Bloomberg)
Foxconn (FXCNY) will make electric cars with Fisker (FSR). (WSJ)
India puts new rules on social media. (Bloomberg)
Current through 2/24 close. Overall confidence moves from 54% to 87%.
Bold means a change from prior day.
2/24 results.
Geopolitical:
The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, White House Situation Room, 9:50 a.m. EST
Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, James S. Brady Press Briefing Room, 12:00 p.m. EST
The President has lunch with The Vice President, Private Dining Room, 12:30 p.m. EST
The President and The Vice President receive a COVID-19 briefing, Oval Office, 1:45 p.m. EST
The President participates in an event commemorating the 50 millionth COVID-19 vaccine shot; The Vice President also attends, South Court Auditorium, 2:30 p.m. EST
The President participates in the National Governors Association’s Winter Meeting, South Court Auditorium, 4:30 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve Governor Quarles speaks at 11:00 a.m. EST.
Economic:
The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is due out after the close for the period ended on settlement date of 2/12. During this period from 1/27/21 through 2/10 on a trade date basis the S&P 500 rose 4.24%, so expect more short covering.
Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.
Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.
$62 billion of 7 Years to be auctioned at 1:00 p.m. EST.
Investor, Sellside and Industry Meetings
MLM HAS AWR AWK CR AKAM EDPFY (Investor Day) TWTR (Analyst Day) TGEN (Event) EXPO (Webinar)
Sellside Confrerences: SVB Leerink 10th Annual Global Healthcare Conference (2/22-2/26) KBW Fintech Conference (2/23-2/25) Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum (2/24-2/26) Wells Fargo Real Estate Conference (2/24-2/25) Citi Healthcare Services. Medtech, Tools & HCIT Conference (2/24-2/25)
Industry Conferences:
M&A Activity:
NuVasive (NUVA) to buy Simplify Medical (NUVA) for $150 million in cash.
Upgrades & Downgrades of Note This Morning: Note that downgrades remain prevalent in February. We will update today’s recs tomorrow as out of time.
Wednesday’s Sellside Recommendations below.
