CAPIS Morning Note -2/12/20 Market Likes Bernie Sander vs President Trump

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Paper – Employment data provides best predictor of recessions. IPOs on deck: None of note. IPOs Filed:  None of note. Secondaries Priced: MRNS XERS ADVM  TBPH    of note. Notes Priced: None of note. Common Stock filings: BLBD of note. Mixed Shelf Offerings: ATO HAL of note. Convertible Offering Files: None of…

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research PaperEmployment data provides best predictor of recessions.

IPOs on deck: None of note.

IPOs Filed:  None of note.

Secondaries Priced: MRNS XERS ADVM  TBPH    of note.

Notes Priced: None of note.

Common Stock filings: BLBD of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: ATO HAL of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:


EXAS +0.90, PEAK +0.36, LYFT +0.20, AMCR +0.14, PRI +0.11, AKAM +0.10, CPSI +0.09, CNO +0.06, DENN +0.06, ACGL +0.06, ACCO +0.05, BXMT +0.04, DIOD +0.03, LSCC +0.02, NSP +0.02, KRNT +0.01, NCR +0.01, REXR +0.01  of note.


DCP (0.48), AIZ (0.10), VNOM (0.09), UDR (0.07), WU (0.05), VREX (0.04) of note.


DEI +0.00, HCSG +0.00, TGH +0.00

Hourly Action This Week: Updated 2/11

News After The Close (In Order of Time)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) will tackle coronavirus with Health & Human Services.

Invesco (IVZ) sees assets drop 0.6% from December.

Artisan Partners (APAM) sees assets fall by 0.66%.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) falls -26% on weak holiday sales.

Stock Repurchase Announcements: 

Dividend Increases: HE GOLD IPG

Gap Higher:  PERI +9%, CPSI +7%, CSGP +5%, CVE +4%, ADMS +4%, LSCC +4%, BG +4%, MGI +4%

Gap Lower: BBBY -25%, NSP -19%, VREX -18%, MRNA -6%, LYFT -5%, WU -5%, TNAV -5%, KRNT -4%, BLBD -4%, NCR -4%

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. 

S&P 500 +14 Dow Jones Industrial Average +140  NASDAQ +51  Russell 2000 +11. Fair values are lower. Asia and Europe higher.

Gold and silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $130.75 from $130.95 with yields at 1.623%  from 1.587%.  Prices as of 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Materials, Energy, Services and Conglomerates  of note.

Negative Sectors On Tuesday:  None of note.

One Month Winners: Conglomerates, Utilities, Technology and Consumer Goods.

Three Month Winners: Healthcare, Consumer Goods and Technology.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Goods, Utilities, Healthcare, Technology, Industrials and Financials.

Twelve Month Winners: Consumer Goods,Technology, Utilities, Industrials and Services.

Year to Date: Conglomerates, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Goods and Industrial Goods.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)



Earnings This Morning Of Note


BG +0.98, TAP +0.24, SHOP +0.23, LAD +0.21, CYBR +0.16, AB +0.15, CIM +0.12, CIGI +0.10, MCO +0.08, IPG +0.05, CVS +0.04, NBL +0.03, GOLD +0.03, IQV +0.02, GPN +0.02, TEVA +0.01, CVE +0.01 of note.


PVG +0.00, ECOM +0.00, TW +0.00, ARCC +0.00


WNC (0.04), CME (0.03), RDWR (0.01) of note.

Still To Report: NSIT, TRVG

 Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top News Story: 

5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)

5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)

Stocks Moving This Morning. (CNBC)

Coronavirus (COVID 19) update sees over 1100 dead from 1000 and over 45,000 from 44,000 infected. (NYT)

COVID 19 map in Asia. (NYT)

In Hong Kong looking to see if the coronavirus can spread through pipes and drains. (CNN)

OPEC takes down 2019 world oil demand growth by 0.02 mb/d.

Senator Bernie Sanders wins the New Hampshire Democratic primary giving him a legitimate victory post the debacle in Iowa. (CNN)

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicates may not have the tools to combat the next recession. (Bloomberg)

Stock Index Tracking

All back to positive. Current through 2/11 close.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The advance/decline line model moved to cash 1/31. Updated through 2/11. In 2019, the model was up 16.48% on the S&P 500 and this year is up 2.08%. 5 buy signals and 4 cash signals in 2019. Current buy signal ended with a gain of 9.83% and began on 10/17/19. We failed to get back to a buy this morning and now the earliest it could come would be Friday morning.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Update through 2/11.

Economic & Related:

The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is out  through the end of January and the NYSE fell -1.36% while NASDAQ fell -1.98%.

The latest API Petroleum Institute data was out at 4:30 p.m. EDT and saw crude oil build by 6 million barrels with estimates of 2.978 million barrels.

MBA Mortgage Applications rose 1.1% after rising 5% last week.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.


President Trump will lunch with the vice president and then meet with the President of Ecuador at 2:25 p.m. EDT and then attend a fundraiser at the Trump International Hotel.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will conclude two days of testimony before Senate at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

$27 Billion of 10 Year Treasuries at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Meetings, Calls & Conferences

Investor/Analyst Days & Conference Calls of Note:  (Investor Day) HTLF CSGP (Conference Call)

Sellside Conferences: Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference (2/11-2/13). Stifel Transportation and Logistics Conference (2/11-2/13). Loop Capital Transportation, Logistics and Materials Conference (2/12-2/13).

Industry Conferences: Metro Connect USA (2/10-2/12). BIO CEO & Investor Conference (2/10-2/11). Chicago Auto Show (2/8-2/17). Enercom Dallas Energy Investment Conference. (2/11-2/12). Developers SF Bay Area Conference and Expo 2020 (2/12-2/16).

M&A Activity

Heartland Financial (HTLF) to buy AIM Bancshares in cash and stock deal worth $280 million.

CoStar Groupbuys RentPath out of Chapter  11 for $588 million in cash.

Upgrades & Downgrades through 8:30 a.m. EDT 2/11