CAPIS Morning Note – 12/28/23: Stocks Trading Flat This Morning.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.14% at 4781.58 from Tuesday higher by 0.42% at 4774.75. The overnight high was hit at 4841.50 at 10:05 p.m. EST while the low was hit at 4831.50 at 7:20 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 10 points as of 7:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of…

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.14% at 4781.58 from Tuesday higher by 0.42% at 4774.75. The overnight high was hit at 4841.50 at 10:05 p.m. EST while the low was hit at 4831.50 at 7:20 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 10 points as of 7:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 16.40 from 16.10.  The average for May-November average was 21.43 from 22.06. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by 0.50 at 7:35 a.m. EST
Breaking News:

Executive Summary:  Two trading days left in the year. News is slow into year end.

  • NYSE Short Interest Rose 0.95%. NASDAQ Short Interest Fell by -0.16%

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:  None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • PROF files a common stock offering no specifics.
    • SIDU files a S-1 197,006 Class A common shares.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
    • None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • RGLS: Filed 150,000,000 mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note. None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Weekend:

  • News Items After the Close:
    • Apple (AAPL) resumes sales of watches. (Bloomberg)
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • flyExclusive and EG Acquisition Corp close on business combo and begins to trade today as flyExclusive (FLYX).
    • Chord Energy  (CHRD) announces Susan Cunningham as Independent Chair of The Board of Directors and Darrin Henke as COO.
    • Echostar (SATS) to join S&P 600 on January 2nd replacing DISH Network (DISH) which Echostar is buying.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • After The Close Movers:
    • Ups: SQM +6.6%, SATS +4%, LGFA +2%.  
    • Downs: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    •  None of note.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +3, Dow Jones -21,  NASDAQ +53, and Russell 2000 -5.01.  (as of 8:15 a.m. EST).  Asia is higher ex Japan and Europe is lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 13.90 from 15.50 this morning.  Gold, Silver and Copper are lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.813% from 3.85% from yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $42,903 from $43,571 lower by -1.18% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Daily this week):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Healthcare, Materials, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate were higher yesterday.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Communication Services and Energy of note.
  • One Month Winners: Real Estate, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Financials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Real Estate, Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals and Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners:  Communication Services, Financial, Technology, Energy and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Industrials and Financials of note.

The S&P 500 closed just shy of an all-time high Wednesday, a sign of the optimism that has sent stocks rallying this year after a punishing 2022. The benchmark index crept up 0.1% Wednesday, leaving it 0.3% shy of its January 2022 record close. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, or about 111 points, its sixth record high this month.

It has taken the S&P 500 almost two years to come back to its previous highs and notch a new record. Sticky inflation, aggressive interest-rate increases and Russia’s war in Ukraine robbed stocks of upward momentum last year. Investors entered 2023 worried that a recession loomed. Much the concern calmed this year. The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate rises helped tame inflation without igniting a recession. The Fed signaled earlier this month that it could cut interest rates next year, sending investors to their “buy” buttons. The Dow hit new records for five days in a row after the Fed news.

The sharp December rally could set investors up for disappointment in 2024. Investors are watching to see whether inflation continues to trend down next year and whether the Fed actually eases rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has left the door open to further rate increases if needed. A sharp stock market rally and a strong economy could make it harder for the central bank to ease.

What’s more, the S&P 500’s gains have been driven by a handful of big tech companies with outsize influence on the index. When just a few stocks are responsible for most of the market’s gains, it becomes more vulnerable to downturns too. “Markets have celebrated the Fed’s mission accomplishment of inflation. We’re going through this bit of party mode,” said Peter Essele, head of portfolio management at Commonwealth Financial Network. For now, though, it practically feels like the pre-rate-hike days of 2021, when the markets seemed to always go up. The S&P 500 is up more than 24% for the year. Last year, it fell 19%. Stocks are also on track for a so-called Santa Claus rally—the bump stocks often get in the period spanning the last five trading days of the year and first two of the next.

“Markets have celebrated the Fed’s mission accomplishment of inflation. We’re going through this bit of party mode,” said Peter Essele, head of portfolio management at Commonwealth Financial Network. For now, though, it practically feels like the pre-rate-hike days of 2021, when the markets seemed to always go up. The S&P 500 is up more than 24% for the year. Last year, it fell 19%. Stocks are also on track for a so-called Santa Claus rally—the bump stocks often get in the period spanning the last five trading days of the year and first two of the next.

 (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: none of note
  • Friday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses:  None of note.
  • Still to Report:  None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Mixed Guidance:  None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: SNES +89%, CYTH +17% of note.
  • Gap Down:  of note.

Insider Action: Several stocks sees Insider buying with dumb short selling (rating of 4 or 5).   SYRS VRCA see Insider buying with smart short sellers (rating of 1 to 3).

Rags & Mags.Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves before the bell: TSLA NTES JD NYT CHRS (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Global Bond “Carnival” Sets Stage For Record Two Months. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Second Most Shared Story: Apple resumes sales of watches after U.S. Appeals Court lifts ban. (Bloomberg)
  • NASDAQ Set  For Best Year Since 1999; Bonds Stall: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • 100%.  Strength remains.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • President Biden has no public events scheduled.
    • President Biden and The First Lady are inthe U.S. Virgin Islands for a little R&R.

Economic:

  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest will be released after the close for the period November 28th through December 13th the S&P500 rose by 3.34%.
  • November Pending Home Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to come in at 0.5% from -1.5%.
  • Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.
  • Weekly Natural Gas Report is due at 10:30 a.m. EST.
  • Weekly Crude Oil Report is due at 11:00 a.m. EST.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  None of note.

M&A Activity and News: 

  • None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls:  None of note.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings: None of note.
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: