CAPIS Morning Note – 12/27/23: Can the S&P 500 Take Out Its All Time High of 4818.62 Before Year End?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.42% at 4774.75 from Friday higher by 0.17% at 4754.63. The overnight high was hit at 4830 at 6:15 p.m. EST while the low was hit at 4821.50 at 7:20 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 9 points as of 7:35 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of…

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.42% at 4774.75 from Friday higher by 0.17% at 4754.63. The overnight high was hit at 4830 at 6:15 p.m. EST while the low was hit at 4821.50 at 7:20 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 9 points as of 7:35 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 16.10 from 16.60.  The average for May-November average was 21.43 from 22.06. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -1.25 at 7:35 a.m. EST
Breaking News:

Executive Summary:  The S&P 500 gained back 1.03% after losing 1.47% Wednesday and it is now higher for the week by 0.58%. Lack of follow-through supports the bullish bias to the market.

  • Latest Short Interest from NYSE and NASDAQ is out after the close.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:  None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • TOMZ files a S-1 common stock offering of 2,080,000 shares.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
    • None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • None of note: Filed mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note. None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Weekend:

  • News Items After the Close:
    • Coherus (CHRS) gets FDA Approval UDENYCA ONBODY.
    • Nio (NIO) gets a $2.2 billion equity strategic investment from CYVN..
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Life Time Fitness  (LTH) announces CFO Robert Houghton to resign naming Eric Weaver as Interim CFO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • After The Close Movers:
    • Ups: FWBI +136%, CHRS +34%, BTBT +9%.  
    • Downs: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    •  None of note.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +2.75, Dow Jones -1,  NASDAQ +18.25 , and Russell 2000 6.51.  (as of 8:15 a.m. EST).  Asia is lower ex Japan and Europe is lower ex the FTSE this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.50 from 15.75 this morning.  Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.85% from 3.885% from yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $43,571 from $44,048 higher by 1.01% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Daily this week):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: All sectors were higher yesterday.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners: Real Estate, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Financials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Real Estate, Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals and Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners:  Communication Services, Financial, Technology, Energy and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Industrials and Financials of note.

Major indexes advanced to start the holiday-shortened trading week, with stocks looking to close out a positive year after a bruising 2022. The benchmark S&P 500 gained 0.4% Tuesday, leaving it within 0.5% of a record close. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%, or about 159 points. The small-cap Russell 2000, which has outperformed the leading indexes in December, climbed 1.2%.

The rise is a sign that the year may end with a so-called Santa Claus rally, which refers to the tendency of U.S. stocks to rise during the period comprising the last five trading sessions of a year and the first two of the next year. Investors are broadly optimistic heading into 2024. Interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve have tamed inflation while avoiding a recession. Money managers expect the central bank will cut interest rates next year. Fresh data out Tuesday showed that shoppers kept spending during the holiday season.

“We’re gonna finish December on a very positive note,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates. “There’s a lot to look up to.”

Front-month futures for benchmark Brent crude oil rose 2.5% to $81.07 a barrel, reflecting shipping troubles in the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea, as well as the Arabian Sea. Both U.S. and Brent crude finished Tuesday at their highest levels of the month. That helped the energy sector lead broad-based gains in the S&P 500, adding 0.9%. Marathon Oil shares added 2.1%.

 (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: none of note
  • Thurssday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses:  None of note.
  • Still to Report:  None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Mixed Guidance:  None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: of note.
  • Gap Down:  of note.

Insider Action: Several stocks sees Insider buying with dumb short selling (rating of 4 or 5).   SYRS VRCA see Insider buying with smart short sellers (rating of 1 to 3).

Rags & Mags.Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves before the bell: CHRS NTES AMZN TSLA  (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens on Wednesday. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: The Late Night Email To Tim Cook That Set The Apple Watch Saga in Motion. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Second Most Shared Story: Apple’s iPhone Design Chief Enlisted Jony Ive, Sam Altman to work on AI Devices. (Bloomberg)
  • US Futures Steady As S&P 500 Record in Site: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • 100%.  Strength remains.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • President Biden receives the Daily Briefing at 8:00 a.m. EST.
    • President Biden and The First Lady head to the U.S. Virgin Islands for a little R&R at 9:20 a.m. EST.

Economic:

  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest will be released after the close for the period November 28th through December 13th the S&P500 rose by 3.34%.
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index up at 10:00 a.m. EST.
  • 2-Year Note Auction at 11:30 a.m. EST.
  • 5-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EST.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  None of note.

M&A Activity and News: 

  • None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls:  None of note.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings: None of note.
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: