CAPIS Morning Note – 12/20/22: Stocks Trying to Hold 3800 On The S&P 500

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 3817.66 (lower by -0.90%) from Friday at 3852.36 (lower by -1.11%).  The overnight high of 3854.75 was hit at 8:35 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 3803.50 at 12:40 a.m. EST, a range of ~51 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 3817.66 (lower by -0.90%) from Friday at 3852.36 (lower by -1.11%).  The overnight high of 3854.75 was hit at 8:35 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 3803.50 at 12:40 a.m. EST, a range of ~51 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was -1.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: SCS +0.02, HEI +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Fun Story Of The Day: John Daly played with his son in the PNC Father-Son this weekend. His warmup was legendary, read on. (Golf Digest)

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in awhile you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Brilliant Acquisition Corporation (BRLI) Announces Extension of Completion Window to January 23, 2023.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ATXS: Closing of Underwritten Offering and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
    • LCID: Announces Successful Capital Raise of Approximately $1.515 Billion.
    • PXMD: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 13,102,199 Shares of Common Stock.
    • STAF: Filed Form S-1.. Staffing 360 Solutions, Inc. 124,332 Shares of Common Stock.
    • TERN: Proposed Public Offering — $75 Million. (Jefferies and Cowen bookmanagers)
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • VJET: Private Placement of Ordinary Shares.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • MDXH: Filed Form F-3.. $150 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: BCOR +17%, SMCI +6%, LCID +4%.
    • Trading Down: TRDA -32%, RCUS -21%, TERN -5%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Sam Bankman-Fried’s Lawyers Hash Out His Transfer to U.S. After Confusion in Court. (WSJ)
    • Lucid Group (LCID) stock rises after raising $1.515 billion. (MarketWatch)
    • Disney (DIS) shares fall following softer-than-expected ‘Avatar’ opening weekend. (CNBC)
    • FCC Deadlock Shields Wireless Companies From Privacy Penalties. (WSJ)
    • Supreme Court Temporarily Blocks Biden From Ending Trump-Era Border Policy. (WSJ)
    • U.S. Navy Awards Amazon (AMZN) Web Services Contract Worth Over $700 Million.
    • ARKK is now down 80% from its all-time highs closing today at its lowest level since 2017.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Index Changes:
      • SMCI to be added to SP400 (replacing STLD)
      • STLD – To be added to the SP500 
    • BitNile Holdings (NILE) Plans to Change Name to Ault Alliance.
    • Enfusion (ENFN) Appoints Brad Herring as New Chief Financial Officer.
    • Everbridge (EVBG) Appoints RSA Chief Executive Officer Rohit Ghai and Blackbaud Executive Vice President David Benjamin to its Board of Directors.
    • Flotek (FTK) Appoints Bond Clement to Role of Chief Financial Officer.
    • NASDAQ  (NDAQ) CEO Adena Friedman elected to additional role of Chair of the Board.
    • NewAmsterdam Pharma (NAMS) appoints David Topper as CFO.
    • Par Pacific (PARR) appoints William Monteleone as President.
    • Simmons First National (SFNC) Chairman and CEO George Makris, Jr. will assume role of full-time Executive Chairman; COO Robert Fehlman will assume role of CEO.
    • Xylem (XYL) announced the appointment of Matthew Pine as COO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Arch Capital (ACGL) increases its share repurchase authorization to $1 bln; new program replaces existing share repurchase authorization.
    • Blucora (BCOR) authorizes repurchase up to $250 million through modified Dutch Auction in 1Q23; authorizes repurchase up to $200 million of common stock.
    • Lazydays Holdings (LAZY) authorizes $50 million share repurchase plan.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • HEICO (HEI) increases semi-annual dividend 11% to $0.10 per share.
    • ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS) increases quarterly cash dividend by $0.05 to $0.28 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -6, Dow Jones +15,  NASDAQ -45,  and Russell 2000 -1. (as of 7:56 a.m. EST).  Asian markets are lower.  Europe markets are trading lower as well. VIX Futures are at 24.12 from 24.40.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas lower. $ barely down. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.649% from 3.541%. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $16,830 from $16,727 higher by 1.46%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Basic Materials, Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Industrials, and Healthcare of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Industrials, Energy, Healthcare of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy,  of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stocks ended down Monday, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite falling sharply, deepening last week’s losses as concerns over an economic slowdown persisted. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.5% lower, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite sank 1.5%.  (MarketWatch)

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Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: NKE, WOR, AIR, EPAC, CVGW of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: CTAS, TTC, CCL, RAD of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: FDS +0.36, GIS +0.04.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: FCEL (0.11).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: SCS, SCHN, RKLB of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: VRNA +37%, BCOR +17%, ALT +12%, IAG +6%, SMCI +6%, LCID +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: TRDA -32%, RCUS -21%, TERN -5% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: GIS, SCS, LCID, RKLB, TTD, GNRC, SFIX, BEAM, VERV (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Whoops, only Blue Members can vote on Elon running Twitter. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Whoops, only Blue Members can vote on Elon running Twitter. (Bloomberg)
  • UAE may reexamine its relationship with OPEC+ as wants to pump more oil. (Reuters)
  • Bank of Japan Yield Band Pivot rips through currency markets as dollar falls. (Bloomberg)
  • Economists call for a 70% chance of a recession in U.S. in 2023. (Bloomberg)
  • Amazon (AMZN) settles Antitrust with EU. (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 5%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:50 a.m. EST

Economic: 

  • November Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and the estimate is 1,395,000 against 1,425,000.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) to Acquire Exacta Systems for  $250 million in cash.
  • KKR to acquire Bushu Pharmaceuticals.
  • Magna (MGA) to acquire Veoneer Active safety business for $1.525 billion in cash.
  • Stewart Info (STC) acquires BCHH.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Mizuho CES Outlook Series: Semis and Autos
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • None of note.
  • Company Meetings: AMMX, CRBP, FRO, IMPP, SLAC.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: TMBR, VRNA.
  • Update:
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • ASCO Monthly Plenary Series
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • BIO Partnering Conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: