CAPIS Morning Note – 12/15/23: Quadruple Witching Today, Futures Higher, Party on Garth!!

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 0.26% at 4719.55 with Wednesday higher by 1.37% at 4707.09. The overnight high was hit at 4789 at 5:25 a.m. EST while the low was hit at 4767.50 at 6:10 p.m. EST. The range overnight was 22 points as of 7:20 a.m. EST. The 10-day average…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 0.26% at 4719.55 with Wednesday higher by 1.37% at 4707.09. The overnight high was hit at 4789 at 5:25 a.m. EST while the low was hit at 4767.50 at 6:10 p.m. EST. The range overnight was 22 points as of 7:20 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 16.30 from 15.70.  The average for May-November average was 21.43 from 22.06. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +11 at 7:20 a.m. EST.  

Executive Summary: 

  • November Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.20% from -0.60%.
  • Today is the Quarterly Triple Witching, $5 Trillion in expiring Options with an index rebalance.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: LEN +0.23, COST +0.07 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • ZKH Group (ZKH) 4 million share IPO priced at $15.50.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • EOSE: Pricing of $50 Million Public Offering 34,482,759 shares @$1.45. (TD and Stifel bookmanager)
    • HRTG: Prices 3,703,703 share offering at $6.75 per share.
    • SING: Announces Pricing of $4 Million Public Offering, Uplisting to Cboe Global Markets and Reverse Stock Split.
    • SNDX: Prices offering of 10,810,810 shares of common stock at $18.50 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BLBD: Launch of Secondary Public Offering.. 2,500,000 shares. (BAC and BCS Underwriters)
    • EOSE: Launch of Proposed $40 Million Public Offering. (TD and Stifel bookmanager)
    • HRTG: Announces launch of primary offering of shares of common stock. (JonesTrading Bookmanager)
    • SGRY: Proposed Secondary Offering of Common Stock.. 8,000,000 shares. (Jefferies Underwriter)
    • SNDX: Proposed $150 Million Public Offering of Common Stock – $150 million of shares. (GS, JPM, TD and Stifel Bookmanager)
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • NB: Private Placement for Gross Proceeds of US$1 Million.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • COKE: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • CPIX: Filed Form S-3.. $100Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • ERNA: $9.2 Million Convertible Debt and Warrant Financing.
    • IEP: Intends to Offer Additional New Senior Notes.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours Movers: 
    • GETR: +148% Strong 3Q 2023 Results with 42% Year-Over-Year Growth in Revenue
    • NCPL: +38% Revenues Increase by More Than 150%
    • HSCS: +30% Earnings
    • AADI: -49% Interim Results from PRECISION1 Trial of nab-Sirolimus Demonstrating Anti-Tumor Activity in Solid Tumors with TSC1 or TSC2 Inactivating Alterations
    • EOSE: -20% Proposed $40M Public Offering
    • SCHL: -10% Earnings
    • NX: -10% Earnings
    • SGRY: -5% Proposed Secondary Offering of Common Stock
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Home builder Lennar (LEN) reports boost in fourth-quarter sales. (MarketWatch)
    • Scholastic’s (SCHL) revenue drops in crucial back-to-school quarter, stock drops more than 10%. (MarketWatch)
    • Citi (C) Shuts Muni Business That Once Was Envy of Rivals. (Blomberg)
    • Lennar (LEN) CEO: “Higher interest rates tested homebuyer sentiment, although purchasers remained responsive to incentives …The well-documented production deficit and chronic supply shortage continued to result in housing demand outweighing short supply”.
    • Traders brace for chaotic ‘triple witching’ Friday as $5 trillion in expiring options collides with index-rebalancing mania. (MarketWatch)
    • Blackstone (BX): FDIC Signature Bridge Bank (SBNY) receivership sells 20 percent equity interest in entity holding $16.8 billion of commercial real estate loans.
    • In our opinion the new tech bull market has begun and tech stocks are set up for a strong 2024 as we expect tech to be up 20%+ led by Big Tech as the AI spending tidal wave hits the shores of the tech world. Now the rest of the tech sector joins the Magnificent 7 in the rally. (Dan Ives Wedbush)
    • Thursday’s put/call ratio for ETFs was .73, the lowest reading since 11/12/21.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Brixmor Property (BRX) announces that Angela Aman will step down as President and CFO.
    • First Savings Finl (FSFG) to delay 10-K filing.
    • Gildan Activewear (GIL) shareholder Turtle Creek Asset Management urges the Board to reverse its termination of former CEO Glenn Chamandy.
    • Grupo Aeroportuario (OMAB) is not currently aware of any event that requires disclosure and is causing unusual movements in stock price.
    • Hanesbrands (HBI) announces that its Board of Directors has appointed William S. Simon to serve as Chairman of the Board.
    • Kilroy Realty (KRC) names Angela Aman as CEO.
    • Mettler-Toledo (MTD) announces that Board Chair Robert Spoerry will retire and not stand for re-election.
    • Rio Tinto (RIO) confirms that Dr Megan Clark has stepped down as a non-executive director.
    • RLI Corp (RLI) Chairman of the Board Jonathan Michael to retire; David Duclos to serve as Chairman.
    • RTX announces that President and COO Christopher Calio will succeed Gregory Hayes as CEO. (MarketWatch)
    • Sweetgreen (SG) announced that Jim McPhail, the Company’s Chief Development Officer, will no longer be with the Company.
    • Ucommune (UK) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • ATN International (ATNI) authorizes expansion of share repurchase program to $25 million. (see Dividend)
    • Constellation Energy (CEG) approves $1.0 billion increase to its existing share repurchase program.
    • Corebridge Financial (CRBG) Announces $150 Million Share Repurchase from AIG and Blackstone.
    • Millicom International Cellular (TIGO) launches share repurchase program.
    • Red River Bancshares, Inc. (RRBI) Announces Renewal of Stock Repurchase Program.
    • Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) renews stock repurchase authorization.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • HUBC 1/10 reverse split for today.
    • TCBP 1/20 reverse split for today.
    • TFF Pharmaceuticals (TFFP) Announces Reverse Stock Split. Common Stock Will Begin Trading on a Split-Adjusted Basis on December 19, 2023.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Andersons (ANDE) increases quarterly cash dividend 3% to $0.19 per share from $0.185 per share.
    • ATN International (ATNI) approves quarterly dividend increase of 14% to $0.24 per share.
    • Costco (COST) declares special cash dividend of $15 per share.
    • Edison (EIX) raises quarterly divided by 5.8% to $0.78 per share, equating to new annualized yield of 4.4%.
    • Ensign Group (ENSG) raises quarterly dividend to $0.06 per share from $0.0575 per share.
    • Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) increases quarterly dividend to $1.82 per share from $1.80 per share.
    • Lamb Weston (LW) increases its quarterly dividend by 29% to $0.36 per share; 1.4% annual yield.
    • NewLake Capital Partners (NLCP) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.40 per share from $0.39 per share.
    • New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT) decreases quarterly cash dividend to $0.20 per share from $0.30 per share.
    • Nucor (NUE) increases its quarterly dividend 5.9% to $0.54 per share; 1.3% annual yield.
    • Pfizer (PFE) increases its quarterly dividend by 2.4% to $0.42 per share; annual yield of 6.4%. (MarketWatch)
    • Ready Capital (RC) decreases quarterly cash dividend to $0.30 per share from $0.36 per share.
    • Vapotherm (VAPO) Announces Suspension of NYSE Listing Common Stock Expected to Begin Trading Promptly on OTCQX.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +9, Dow Jones +91,  NASDAQ +42, and Russell 2000 +10.  (as of 7:56 a.m. EST).  Asia is higher while Europe is higher ex the FTSE this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.07 from 14.05 this morning.  Gold, Silver and Copper are higher this morning for a second day in a row. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.90% from 3.947% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $42,701 from $43,000 lower by -0.45% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate, Energy, Basic Materials, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical, Financial of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Utilities of note.
  • One Month Winners: Real Estate, Industrials, Financials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Financial, and Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services Financial  of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.

Stocks extended their year-end rally. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%, Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.4%, closing at a new record high. Investors have recently been betting that the Fed will pivot to lowering interest rates next year, and the central bank helped confirm that view Thursday by forecasting three rate cuts in 2024. A strong rally in bonds since then has helped propel other assets. Bond yields dipped, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling below 4% for the first time since August. The S&P 500, now up 23% in 2023, is just 1.6% off a record high.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DRI +0.10 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: SCHL of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline ChartNo chart today

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: VRCA +10%, HIVE +5%, ENSG +5%, IOAC +4%, ARIS +4%, of note.
  • Gap Down: AADI -46%, EOSE -19%, SCHL -12%, NX -8%, SGRY -5%, COOK -5%, NYMT -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags.Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves before the bell: COST, LEN, ENPH, SCHL, NX, DRI  (CNBC)
  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens on Friday. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Fed’s Shrinking Balance Sheet is Worrying The Repo Market. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story:  Citi shuts Muni business that was once the envy of rivals. (Bloomberg)
  • S&P 500 is about to have its seventh up week on pivot fever: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • $6 Trillion of Cash could further fuel the rally. (Reuters)
  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen outlines plan to improve U.S.-China ties. (CNBC)
  • U.S. Senate likely not to go into recess next week as Ukraine aid and Border Security issues remain unsolved. (Twitter – @Deltaone)
  • Darden (DRI) beats estimates and meets revenue growth. (MarketWatch)
  • Bloomberg The Big Take:   The Supreme Court is about to have a very big year of decisions. (Podcast)
  • NPR Marketplace:  Looks at multiple tech issues – Europe AI law, Google’s court loss and data behind Netflix. (Podcast)
  • NY Times Daily:   The year of Taylor Swift. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion:  Mastering the Gold market. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • 100%.  Day 5.  Strong.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EST
    • The President and The Vice President have lunch, 1:30 p.m. EST

Economic:

  • Empire State Mfg Index 8:30 a.m. EST
  • November Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.20% from -0.60%.
  • PMI Composite Flash 9:45 a.m. EST
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  None of note.

M&A Activity and News

  • Webster Financial (WBS) signs definitive agreement to acquire Ametros for $350 million in cash.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Northland AI Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Bank of America STARS Summit
        • ROTH MKM Deer Valley Conference
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: RNLX, RNXT, SFE, THO, VTRS
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ARQT, BMY, MRK, NUBI, UTZ
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings: None of note.
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: