CAPIS Morning Note – 12/07/22: Stocks Lower As We Hit Mid Week

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3941.26 (lower by -1.44%) from Monday at 3998.84 (lower by -1.79%).  The overnight high of 3954 was hit at 11:15 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 3926 at 7:15 a.m. EST, a range of ~30 points high to low.  At 7:20 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3941.26 (lower by -1.44%) from Monday at 3998.84 (lower by -1.79%).  The overnight high of 3954 was hit at 11:15 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 3926 at 7:15 a.m. EST, a range of ~30 points high to low.  At 7:20 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was down -17.75.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: TOL +1.69, CASY +0.54, MDB +0.40, GWRE +0.27, S +0.06, ZUO +0.04, CXM +0.03.
  • Flat: PLAY +0.00.
  • Misses: AVAV (0.24), SWBI (0.18), SFIX (0.03).

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in awhile you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • MNG Airlines, a Global Logistics Provider and e-Commerce Enabler, Signs Agreement to Go Public on the New York Stock Exchange Through a Business Combination with Golden Falcon Acquisition Corp (GFX).
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • CLFD: Announces Pricing of Upsized $120 Million Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • IBIO: Announces Pricing of $3.5 Million Underwritten Public Offering.
    • SNDX: prices offering. 6.8M shares at $22 per share.
    • VS: Announces Pricing of $2.1 Million Public Offering.
    • VOR: Prices Underwritten Offering of Common Stock and Concurrent Private Placement for Aggregate Proceeds of $115.8 Million
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • AXON: Announces Upsize and Pricing of Convertible Senior Notes Offering.
    • HLF: Announces Pricing of $250 Million Aggregate Principal Amount of Convertible Senior Note Offering.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ADMA: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. RJ, Cantor and Mizuho bookmanagers.
    • BXRX: Closing of $5 Million Public Offering.
    • CLFD: Proposed $100 Million Public Offering of Common Stock.. Cowen and Needham bookmanagers.
    • IBIO: Proposed Underwritten Public Offering.. Wainwright bookmanager.
    • LGMK: Filed Form S-1 .. Unit Offering.
    • NLSP: Filed Form F-3.. Up to 11,874,690 Common Shares.
    • QUBT: Files $25M At-The-Market Issuance Sales Agreement.
    • RNAZ: Announces Withdrawal of Registration Statement.
    • SNDX: Announces Proposed $150 million Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • TOPS: Announces Closing of $13.5 Million Public Offering.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • CUE: Filed Form S-3.. 18,376,812 Shares Common Stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • HPQ: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • UNIT: Launch of Convertible Notes Offering.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: MDB +25%.
    • Trading Down: IBIO -38%, ADMA -11%, SWBI -8%, SNDX -7%, HQY -6%, NBIX -5%, ZUO -5%, PLAY -4%, CLFD -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: MDB, TOL, PLAY, SFIX, SBNY  (CNBC)
    • Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) stock heads lower after hours after Q3 earnings. (MarketWatch)
    • Stitch Fix (SFIX) stock sinks on trimmed forecast, falling sales and clothing demand. (MarketWatch)
    • Textron (TXT) awarded $1.36 billion U.S. Army hybrid contract for the development of the Future Long Range Assault Aircraft weapon system.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Aesthetic Medical International Holdings Group Ltd. (AIH) Received a Letter of Expected Delisting Determination From Nasdaq Staff and Requested a Hearing before the Nasdaq Hearings Panel.
    • Alibaba’s (BABA) Jack Ma stepped down as the chairman of the General Association of Zhejiang Entrepreneurs, a position that he has held since the establishment of the organization in Oct 2015. Nan Cunhui, the head of the Chint Group, was elected as the new chairman.
    • Butterfly (BFLY) Announces that Todd Fruchterman will leave his position as CEO and President; Dr. Rothberg to serve as Interim CEO during this time of transition.
    • Dogness (DOGZ) Receives NASDAQ Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Requirements.
    • First Foundation (FFWM) appoints Christopher M. Naghibi COO.
    • Anywhere (HOUS) Announces Strategic Leadership Changes.
    • Invivyd (IVVD) appoints Jeremy Gowler as COO.
    • PARTS iD (ID) Announces CFO Transition.
    • ReTo (RETO) Receives an Additional 180 Day Period to Regain Compliance with the Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • LOW Anounces new $15 billion stock buyback.
    • Mastercard (MA) Board of Directors Announces Quarterly Dividend and $9 Billion Share Repurchase Program. (See Dividends)
    • Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) Announces Authorization of New $25 Million Stock Repurchase Program.
    • Morningstar (MORN) New $500 Million Share Repurchase Program. (See Dividends)
    • NEXGEL (NXGL) Announces Share Repurchase Program.
    • State Street (STT) Announces Incremental Increase of up to $500 Million to Existing Common Share Repurchases in the Fourth Quarter.
    • Trustmark (TRMK) authorizes new stock repurchase program up to $50 million.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Hooker Furnishings (HOFT) Declares Increased Quarterly Dividend.
    • Mastercard (MA) announces 16% increase in quarterly dividend to $0.57 per share.
    • Morningstar (MORN) increases quarterly dividend to $0.375 per share from $0.36.
    • PennyMac Mortgage (PMT) LOWERS quarterly dividend by $0.07 to $0.40.
    • Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) Board of directors has authorized a $0.10 per share quarterly dividend.
    • Southwest Airlines (LUV) reinstates quarterly dividend at $0.18 per share.
    • TPR Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.30.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -25, Dow Jones -133,  NASDAQ -118,  and Russell 2000 -6. (as of 8:00 a.m. EST).  Asia and Europe are lower.  VIX Futures are at 22.95 from 21.55. Gold and Silver higher and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas higher as well. $ is flat. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.54% from 3.551%. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $16,791 from $16,994 lower by -1.06%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Technology, Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Basic Materials,Communication Services, Technology of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Industrials, and Healthcare of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stocks ended sharply lower Tuesday, with the S&P 500 falling for a fourth straight day, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid recession concerns and increased market volatility. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.03% dropped around 350 points to close 1% lower, while the S&P 500 fell SPX, -1.44% 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -2.00% sank 2%  (MarketWatch)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: GME, DSGX, HCP, GEF, VRNT, OXM, AI, SPWH of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: CIEN, KFY, GMS, MOMO of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: THO +0.71, LUV +0.21, CPB +0.15.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: BF.B (0.08), OLLI (0.03), UNFI (0.03).
  • Still to Report: ASO.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ADMA, MDB, S, HQY, CPB of note.
  • Negative Guidance:CXM, SFIX, AVAV, ZUO, OLLI, ACHC of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: MDB +28%, GWRE +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: IBIO -51%, AVAV -9%, ADMA -9%, CLFD -7%, SNDX -5%, SWBI -5%, NBIX -4%, CUE -4%, ZUO -4%, PLAY -4%, CXM -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No Stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: CPB PINS TOL THO LOW CVNA MDB PLAY  SFIX ABNB  (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Warnock’s Narrow Victory in Georgia Ensures It As A Battleground State in 2024. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Trump Companies Are Convicted of Criminal Tax Fraud. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Slip as China Data Compounds Recession Fears. (Bloomberg)
  • Short Sellers Vindicated With Bear Market Rally Sputtering. (Bloomberg)
  • Weekly Mortgage Demand falls despite drop in rates. (CNBC)
  • Activist Investor calls for Blackrock (BLK) CEO Larry Fink to step down over ESG hypocrisy. (CNBC)
  • Consumer Caution Around the Holidays the Highest Since 2013. (CNBC)
  • China Eases Covid Restrictions on travel and production. (CNBC)
  • Omnicron Boosters are weaker against BQ.11 subvariant that is the dominant subvariant in U.S. (CNBC)
  • Tesla (TSLA) offers Chinese buyers more subsidies. (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score retreats to 25% from 45% and  from 91% just 2 days ago.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 2:00 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
    • Mortgage Applications (WOW) Actual: -1.9% VS -0.8% previous
    • Composite: -1.9%, Purchase: -3%, ReFi: +4.7%
  • Productivity and Costs 8:30 a.m. EST
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST
  • Consumer Credit 3:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Blackout Period.

M&A Activity:

  • Aeris to acquire IoT business from Ericsson (ERIC).
  • Distribution Solutions Group’s (DSGR) TestEquity completed its acquisition of Instrumex.
  • UFP Industries’ (UFPI) affiliate acquires Titan Corrugated.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Biotech SMID Cap Conference (12/07/22-12/08/22)
    • Barclays Global TMT Conference (12/07/22-12/08/22)
    • DA Davidson Financial Institutions Bison Select Conference
    • DA Davidson Fintech and Payment Solutions Conference
    • Indivior Capital Markets Day 2022
    • DB Lithium and Battery Supply Chain Conference
    • John Tumazos Very Independent Research
    • Ladenburg Thalmann Technology Expo
    • Roth Sustainability Private Capital Event
    • Sidoti December Micro Cap Conference (12/07/22-12/08/22)
    • SVB Securities Biopharma Spotlight: Global Large Cap
    • Wells Fargo Midstream, Utilities & Renewable Power (12/07/22-12/08/22)
  • Company Meetings: BLNG, MYO, NUWE
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ACHC, AITX, AVRO, BWV, CGEN, IFF, LOW, LUV,  MRTX, REPL, WBA, WKHS
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day:
    • CYDY, ATHA
  • Company Event:
    • DBRG
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Essity Health & Medical Presentation
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: