CAPIS Morning Note – 11/4/20: Votes Continue To Be Counted
Election results continue to roll in and it looks like the House stays with the Democrats with the Senate too close to call along with the presidency. Markets get ready for a Federal Reserve meeting announcement tomorrow and presser. Market Tone: Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce…
Election results continue to roll in and it looks like the House stays with the Democrats with the Senate too close to call along with the presidency. Markets get ready for a Federal Reserve meeting announcement tomorrow and presser.
Market Tone: Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows. Expect volatility to continue into the election. Yesterday’s move higher made sense after last week’s drop. That up action continues this morning. Buy the rumor, sell the news?
Total Cases 9,321,806 from 9,235,299
Recovered 3,705,130 from 3,674,981
Deaths 224,265 from 223,186
Tests 1,126,224 from1,328,612
New Cases 86,507 from 82,895 with positivity rate +6.9%
Daily Deaths 1,079 from 482
Current Hospitalizations 50,340 from 47,502
Secondaries Priced: None of note.
Notes Priced of note: None of note.
Common Stock filings: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
Mixed Shelf Offerings: PINC of note.
Convertible Offering Files: of note.
Senior Notes Filed: None of note.
Earnings Out After The Close:
Y +4.98, PRU +0.54, SUPN +0.47, TX +0.43, IOSP +0.33, DAR +0.18, KAR +0.17, CC +0.14, ES +0.04, MRCY +0.04, HTA +0.02, HBM +0.02, BTG +0.01, CORT +0.01 of note.
Flat: WTRG +0.00, JBGS +0.00, VRTU +0.00
MCY (0.19), TRHC (0.05), NEX (0.01), ORA (0.01) of note.
News After The Close:
NASDAQ October Equity Options Volume 222 million contracts versus 227 million in September and 151 million in October 2019.
Dividend Increase: HII
Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: UVE
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.
S&P 500 +60 Dow Jones Industrial Average +134 NASDAQ +419 Russell 2000 -11.60. Fair values are lower. Asia mixed and Europe higher. Current VIX is at 35.55 from 37.13. 3 month VIX Future is at 33.52 from 35.06.
Gold and silver lower and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.73 from $138.06 with the yield at 0.785% from 0.877%.
Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Industrials, Financial and Technology of note.
Negative Sectors On Tuesday: None of note.
One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.
Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.
Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.
Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Today After The Close: QCOM MELI PSA MET VRSK MTCH ALL ANSS AWK FNV CTVA of note.
Thursday Before The Open: BABA AZN BMY ZTS BDX DUK D CI REGN GM GOLD BCE SRE of note.
Earnings This Morning Of Note:
SBGI +3.31, DNOW +1.86, CLH +0.63, HLNE +0.18, HAE +0.11, HLT +0.10, ASTE +0.09, PFGC +0.09, PSN +0.03, HEP +0.02, WEN +0.02, RDWR +0.01 of note.
Flat: SMG +0.00
FUN (0.56), ENBL (0.53), LANC (0.25), CCJ (0.15), AVA (0.08), IONS (0.07), VRT (0.05) of note.
Still To Report:
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart – Updated 11/3 Close. The A/D line continued its improvement on Tuesday.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
Gap Up: SUPN +19%, DS +13%, SMCI +9%, HBM +6%, GEO +6%, NP +6%
Gap Down: MRCY -7%, TRHC -6%, CLW -5%, CGC -5%, CORT -5%
Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.
Stocks making the biggest moves – W JAZZ CRUS. (CNBC)
5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
Coronavirus update: Oxford sees trial vaccines this year. (CNBC)
Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.
Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members looking at other oil output cuts. (WSJ)
New Jersey votes to legalize recreational marijuana. (NYT)
Maryland votes to allow sports betting. (NYT)
Stock Index Trading:
Current through 11/3 close. Improvement across the board.
Bold means a change from prior day.
The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 11/3 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg and eSignal. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting.
API Petroleum Data came out at 4:30 p.m. EDT yesterday and saw a draw of 8 million barrels while gasoline built by +2.54 million barrels.
MBA Mortgage Applications came out at 7:00 a.m. EDT and rose 3.8%.
October ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 600,000 from 749,000.
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its second to last meeting of 2020.
Geopolitical & Related:
President Trump will not have a quiet day at the White House.
Meetings Of Note:
BIIB (Q&A at CTAD 2020) KEYS (Keysight Electronic Show)
Sellside Conferences: Bank of America China Conference (11/2-11/13) Goldman Sachs Virtual China Conference (11/2-11/6) Credit Suisse LatAM Basic Materials Virtual Conference (11/4-11/5)
Industry Conferences: Next Generation CAR and T Cell Therapies Conference 2020. (11/2-11/5)
Upgrades & Downgrades Of Note For Today: