CAPIS Morning Note – 11/3/20: Stocks Higher For A Second Day

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows. Expect volatility to continue into the election. Yesterday’s move higher made sense after last week’s drop. That up action continues this morning. Buy the rumor, sell the news? Fun Fact: President Trump spent 84.8% of…

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows. Expect volatility to continue into the election. Yesterday’s move higher made sense after last week’s drop. That up action continues this morning. Buy the rumor, sell the news?

Fun Fact: President Trump spent 84.8% of his presidency at The White House. Visited 26 countries and 47 states. Has now served 1,3854 days of his 1,461 day term.

Covid-19 Statistics:

Total Cases 9,235,299 from 9,151,390

Recovered 3,674,981 from 3,630,579

Deaths 223,186 from 222,704

Tests 1,328,612 from 1,068,044

New Cases 82,895 from 73,701 with positivity rate +6.8%

Daily Deaths 482 from 2,281

Current Hospitalizations 47,502

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: 

Secondaries Priced: EDU of note.

Notes Priced of note:  None of note.

Common Stock filings:  None of note.

Selling Shareholders of note:  BAND EVR  of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings:  None of note.

Convertible Offering Files: NVCR of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close:


VNO +0.52, ESPR +0.50, AIZ +0.42, MED +0.42, DOOR +0.38, CRUS +0.37, SEDG +0.36, KMPR +0.33, SWKS +0.33, HURN +0.32, SBAC +0.32, CNO +0.31, FANG +0.26, JCOM +0.26, INSP +0.24, JAZZ +0.23, OTTR +0.21, STE +0.21, ANET +0.20, ECPG +0.14, PAA +0.14, PYPL +0.13, CDK +0.13, CDLX +0.12, MIME +0.12, NTR +0.11, BRKR +0.11, FMC +0.11, OMI +0.10, LEG +0.09, IR +0.09, ADTN +0.09, BKH +0.09, SIMO +0.09, PINC +0.08, FN +0.07, G +0.07, KFRC +0.06, VNOM +0.06, MOS +0.06, LNT +0.05, MATX +0.05, OGS +0.04, ONTO +0.04, HALO +0.04, WPX +0.04, FBM +0.04, ICHR +0.03, NCMI +0.03, TREX +0.03, SRC +0.02, PEAK +0.01, MDLZ +0.01, WMB +0.01  of note.

Flat: NPTN


AMC (1.98), RMBS (0.38), PUMP (0.06), EVER (0.05), AWR (0.03), DEI (0.03), O (0.03), FRPT (0.02), KMT (0.02), OSPN (0.02)  of note.

News After The Close:

Cirrus Logic (CRUS) CEO to step down January 1st.

Huntington Ingalls (HII) wins $280 million Navy contract.

Multiple gunmen opened fire in Vienna killing at least one and injuring many.

WHO let China take control of the hunt for the origins of the coronavirus.

Stores are boarded up in many states and cities over fear of unrest due to election results.

Dr. Deborah Birx , White House Coronavirus Advisor, warns of a new “deadly” phase ahead of election.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) latest minutes out at 9:00 p.m. EST.

Dividend Increase: CHCT

Dividend Cut:

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: 

Stock Split:

Guides Higher:    

Guides Lower:    

Hourly Action:

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 +40    Dow Jones Industrial Average +423 NASDAQ +46 Russell 2000 +29.21 . Fair values are lower.  Asia and Europe higher. Current VIX is at 37.13 from 38.02. 3 month VIX Future is at 35.06 from 36.27.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.06 from $138.25 with the yield at 0.877% from 0.825%.

Positive Sectors On Monday: Energy, Industrials and Materials of note.

Negative Sectors On Monday: None of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close:  ES PRU Y BTG CC MCY IOSP of note.

Wednesday Before The Open: HLT SMG PRGO WEN LANC PFGC CCJ FUN RDWR of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:


W +1.50, AGCO +1.09, MCK +0.92, ZBRA +0.46, ATH +0.43, IT +0.38, BLD +0.32, HUM +0.30, LGIH +0.29, BMCH +0.24, EXC +0.17, EMR +0.16, ETN +0.14, RACE +0.12, LPX +0.11, AVNS +0.11, JELD +0.08, AVNT +0.08, WBT +0.08, WEC +0.08, CTLT +0.06, OPCH +0.05, JCI +0.03, GWPH +0.03, HSC +0.03, SPR +0.02, VSH +0.02, TRI +0.01  of note.


BHC (0.84), RCM (0.04), ETRN (0.02), EAF (0.02), FI (0.02), WLK (0.01)of note.


Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 11/2 Close. The  A/D line improved on Monday. Our model on the a/d line did go to cash last Tuesday close and is working nicely.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

ALSK +60%, IEA +14%, ANET +12%, MED +11%, INSP +10%, KPTI +10%, CPE +10%, CDLX +10%, CRUS +8%, WBT +8%, HALO +8%, KFRC +7%, JCOM +7%, JAZZ +6%, PAA +6%, VNOM +5%, AMC +4%, GLPG +4%, LPX +4%

Gap Down:

SEDG -15%, PACB -13%, AUPH -10%, NPTN -7%, EVER -7%, OSPN -7%, BRKR -6%, DRRX -6%, FBM -6%, ICHR -5%, KMT -5%, FRPT -5%, PYPL -4%, DOOR -4%, SRC -4%, NTR -4%, MOS -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves On Analyst Calls – STZ GOOGL STX  (CNBC)

Stocks making the biggest moves – W JAZZ CRUS. (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: CT rolls back reopening, Regeneron drug will be in short supply. (CNBC)

Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.

Europe considers testing for all citizens. (WSJ)

Shanghai Stock Exchange may suspend upcoming Ant Group IPO impacting Alibaba (BABA). Has now been suspended. (NYT)

Federal Judge in Texas allows for drive through votes, 127,000, that the Republicans were trying to throw out in Harris County. (NYT)

Trump Campaign is sending lawyers to all corners of the U.S. to challenge ballots. The Democrats are not deploying such a questionable strategy. (NYT)

Democratic Candidate Joe Biden leads by 6.7% nationally. (RealClearPolitics)

Many take several days to sort out votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (NYT)

Wingstop (WING) opens 1,500th restaurant.

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 11/2 close. The Russell 2000 and S&P 400 were somewhat improved yesterday.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 11/2 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg and eSignal. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting


September Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 1.1 % from 0.7%.

API Petroleum Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical & Related:

It’s Election Day 2020 as the polls are open now for voting.

President Trump will visit Republican Headquarters in Virginia and host friends and family at The White House.

Meetings Of Note:

Sellside Conferences: Bank of America China Conference (11/2-11/13) Goldman Sachs Virtual China Conference (11/2-11/6) Gabelli Research Annual Auto  Aftermarket Symposium (11/2-11/3)

Industry Conferences: Next Generation CAR and T Cell Therapies Conference 2020. (11/2-11/5) Precious Metals Summit Europe 2020 (11/2-11/3)


Upgrades & Downgrades Of Note For Today: