There will be no Morning Note on Friday as it is a shortened trading session with markets closing at 1:00 p.m. EST. We will be back next Monday. We hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving and does some shopping on Black Friday.
Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.20% at 4538.19 from Monday higher by 0.74% at 4547.38. The overnight high was hit at 4560.75 at 6:30 a.m. EST while the low was hit at 4543 at 6:25 p.m. EST. The range overnight was 17 points as of 6:25 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 14.30 from 13.90. The average for May-October average was 22.06 from 20.96. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +7 points which is +0.15% at 7:10 a.m. EST.
Executive Summary: Stocks look to settle on a positive note into Thanksgiving. Nvidia (NVDA) beat estimates on earnings and revenues. Sam Altman is back as the CEO of OpenAI. All is right in the world today. We get Durable Orders this morning at 8:30 with several weekly releases and Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. EST.
- Nvidia (NVDA) earnings are positive. (After The Close)
- Several economic releases this morning. (Economic)
- Sam Altman is back at OpenAI. (Rags & Mags)
- OPEC+ Talks hit turbulence into Sunday meeting. (Rags & Mags)
Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: NVDA +0.65, JWN +0.12, ADSK +0.08, URBN +0.06 of note.
- Flat: HPQ of note.
- Misses: GES (0.12), JACK (0.05), DLO (0.02) of note.
- IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
- New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- Secondaries Priced: None of note.
- Notes Priced of note: None of note.
- Common Stock filings/Notes:
- ASPI: Filed Form S-1.. up to an aggregate of 10,150,517 shares.
- BJDX: Filed Form S-1 Common Stock and Warrants.
- NSTG: Filed Form S-3.. 16,000,000 Shares.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
- Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- NWPX: Files $150 million mixed shelf securities offering.
- TFFP: Filed Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
- FSK: Completes Public Offering of $400 million 7.875% Unsecured Notes Due 2029.
- GROM: Signs $8.0 Million Convertible Notes Financing Agreement.
- TNON: Announces Closing of $1.25 Million Secured Note Financing.
- Tender Offer:
- BSQR: Kontron And Bsquare Announce Extension Of Tender Offer For All Outstanding Shares Of Bsquare.
- COTY: Announces Early Results of Cash Tender Offers for Up to $400 Million Outstanding Debt Securities.
- TDF: Commences Self-Tender Offer for up to 25% of Its Common Shares.
- Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
- VTLE: Announces Conversion of 2.0% Cumulative Mandatorily Convertible Series A Preferred Stock.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close :
- After Hours Movers:
- GES: -15.5% Earnings
- DLO: -12% Earnings
- URBN: -6.5% Earnings
- GDRX: +4% Stock Purchase Agreement with Spectrum Equity
- CAVA: +3.5% Insider Purchase
- ADSK: -3.5% Earnings
- HPQ: -3.5% Earnings
- NVDA: -1.35% Earnings
- JWN: -1% Earnings
- News Items After the Close:
- Nvidia (NVDA) just ended an earnings recession and is helping to reshape corporate profits. (MarketWatch)
- Apple (AAPL): CEO Tim Cook determined his successor will come from within the company. (AppleInsider)
- Autodesk’s (ADSK) stock is up as earnings, revenue top analyst estimates; guidance is strong. (MarketWatch)
- GOLDMAN: “We continue to see consumer spending as a source of strength .. job gains, positive real wage growth, and rising interest income will lead real income growth to accelerate .. household balance sheets remain strong, with the net worth-to-disposable personal income ratio remaining near its all-time high.” (Carl Q CNBC)
- DIS: The new collective bargaining agreements with the Directors Guild of America, WGA and SAG-AFTRA will lead to increased costs to create content, including as a result of increases in rates, residuals and benefits. Generally, resolution of disputes or negotiation of new agreements, including rate increases and other changes to employee benefits, has in the past increased our costs and may increase our costs in the future.
- Binance Founder Changpeng Zhao Steps Down, Pleads Guilty. (WSJ)
- Tiger Global’s Shleifer steps down from running Private Equity at the firm but will remain at the firm as a partner. (Bloomberg)
- Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) Announces Change in Research and Development Leadership.
- Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment (CSSE) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Listing Deficiency Notice.
- Docebo Inc. (DCBO) Announces CEO Succession.
- Perion Network (PERI) announces the appointment of CEO Tal Jacobson to the Board of Directors, replacing former CEO Doron Gerstel.
- SBUX: Strategic Organizing Center Nominates Three Candidates to Starbucks Board of Directors.
- Sutro Biopharma (STRO) promotes Jane Chung as President and COO.
- Buyback Announcements or News:
- Docebo (DCBO) Approves a issuer bid under which the company will repurchase up to $100 million of common stock
- Gaotu Techedu (GOTU) Upsizing of Share Repurchase Program.
- Jack In The Box (JACK) authorizes share repurchase program for up to $250 million.
- Stock Splits or News:
- The Beachbody Company, Inc. (BODY) Completes Reverse Stock Split.
- Dividends Announcements or News:
- Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 +11, Dow Jones +48, NASDAQ +64, and Russell 2000 +12. (as of 8:03 a.m. EST). Asia is higher ex the ASX 200 while Europe is higher this morning ex the FTSE. VIX Futures are at 14.35 from 14.80 yesterday. Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.375% from 4.414% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $36,536 from $37,235 yesterday, lower by -1.27% this morning.
Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):
- Daily Positive Sectors: Basic Materials, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical, Energy, Financial of note.
- One Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate, and Financials of note.
- Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
- Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Energy of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical and Industrials of note.
Artificial intelligence powered the stock market for much of the year. Now it is testing U.S. stocks’ November rally. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%. The Dow Industrials fell 0.2%, or 63 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the losses, sliding 0.6%. This year’s stock-market gains were largely fueled by the AI boom, but that stalled this summer as Treasury yields surged. The script has flipped back to big-tech stock domination in recent weeks. Cooling inflation raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is through with its rate-hiking campaign, weighing on Treasury yields. (WSJ – edited by QPI)
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Wednesday After the Close: None of note.
- Thursday Before the Open (MARKETS CLOSED):
- Friday Before the Open: None of note.
Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: BZUN +2.64, GDS +2.27, DE +0.80 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: None of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: AEO, NVDA of note.
- Negative Guidance: JACK, GES of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
- Gap Up: COMM +6%, HITI +5%, CERT +4% of note.
- Gap Down: SOL -18%, GES -14%, DLO -13%, URBN -6%, DE -6%, ADSK -6% of note.
Insider Action: RWAY, CRL, KMPR sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. ASA sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Five Things You Need To Know Before You Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
- 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg Lead Story: Sam Altman will return as OpenAI CEO in Chaotic Win For Microsoft. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg Second Most Shared Story: Binance pleads guilty, CZ gone, pays fines to end legal woes. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks and U.S. futures rise before economic data: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
- OPEC+ Talks hit turbulence as Saudis agitate over output levels. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg Odd Lots: What’s going wrong with the U.S. offshore wind industry. (Podcast)
- NPR Marketplace: Kids prep for YouTube careers at content creator camp. (Podcast)
- NY Times Daily: Inside the coup at OpenAI. (Podcast)
- BBC Global News Daily Podcast: Israel’s cabinet votes on hostage deal as Netanyahu says war will continue. (Podcast)
- Wealthion: November to remember? (Podcast)
- Hedgefund Telemetry Zoom Call With QPI’s Geoff Garbacz: Review of the latest short interest. (Zoom Call)
Moving Average Update:
- Score retreats to 88% from 97%.
Geopolitical:
- President’s Public Schedule:
- No scheduled events as the President is on Nantucket staying at residence of David M. Rubenstein.
Economic:
- MBA Mortgage Application 7:00 a.m. EST
- MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: +3%, Purchase: +3%, ReFi: +1.6%
- U.S MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS (WOW) Actual: 3.0% VS 2.8% Previous
- U.S MBA 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE Actual: 7.41% VS 7.61% Previous
- October Durable Orders are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to -3.10% from 4.7%.
- Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
- November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 60.90 from 60.40.
- Inflation Expectations 10:00 a.m. EST
- EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST
- EIA Natural Gas Report 12:00 p.m. EST
- Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.
M&A Activity and News:
- Syncona to Acquire Freeline Therapeutics (FRLN) $6.50 per share.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences: None of note.
-
- Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
- Top Shareholder Meetings: SABS
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- Investor/Analyst Day/Calls:
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings:
- WEPACK ASEAN 2023
- Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
