CAPIS Morning Note – 11/21/22: Markets Start Thanksgiving Week With Futures Down

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 3965.34 (up by 0.48%) from Thursday at 3946.36 (lower by -0.31%).  The overnight high of 3978.50 was hit right at the initial open Sunday evening. The low was hit at 3949.25 at 7:09 a.m. EST, a range of 29 points high to low.  At 7:40 a.m. EDT,…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 3965.34 (up by 0.48%) from Thursday at 3946.36 (lower by -0.31%).  The overnight high of 3978.50 was hit right at the initial open Sunday evening. The low was hit at 3949.25 at 7:09 a.m. EST, a range of 29 points high to low.  At 7:40 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was near the low, down 21 points, off -0.54%.

Thanksgiving Week Slow Market and News Supplemental:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Options activity.  In this case it is filtering for Call Volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls.  Usually the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation, but once in awhile you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ARAV: Filed Form S-3.. 90,357,622 Shares of Common Stock.
    • OPTN: Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Warrants.
    • SGRY: Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • TH: Target Hospitality Announces Commencement of Exchange Offer Relating to its Warrants.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • ENFN: See Mixed Shelf below.
    • GRNT: Files for 128,233,953 common stock offering by selling stockholders, relates to warrants.
    • HA: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Warrant to Purchase 9,442,443 Shares of Common Stock 9,442,443 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Securityholder.
    • TOPS: Filed Form F-3 1,072,725 Common Shares Issuable upon Exercise of Warrants Offered by the Selling Shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AREN: Filed Form S-3.. $250Million Mixed Shelf.
      CYTK: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • ENFN: Filed Form S-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering .. 21,522,009 Shares of Class A Common Stock Offered by the Selling Securityholders.
    • LH: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • BBBY: Announces Extension of Revised Exchange Offers and Consent Solicitations for Certain of its Outstanding Debt Securities.
    • XPO: Announces Expiration, Results and Settlement of Cash Tender Offer for 6.250% Senior Notes Due 2025.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: GLYC 80.4%, QRTEB 57.0%, CTMX 33.0%, PRQR 31.5%, STIM 23.2%, SIEN 22.7%, CLVS 22.5%, AMBA 18.0%, TAL 17.1%, LX 16.5%, PBYI 16.4%, EVH 15.4%, TOUR 14.3%, ATKR 14.1%, BABA 14.0%.
    • Trading Down: BKD -35.6%, CVNA -34.6%, QTNT -33.4%, AXDX -28.9%, IOVA -26.4%, CDXS -25.6%, LPSN -24.9%, GTHX -24.0%, TUSK -22.8%, FTCH -22.8%, AVYA -22.6%, EBIX -21.7%, AAP -21.6%, NVAX -21.5%, EBS -21.5%, NVTA -21.1%, TREE -21.0%, SFIX -20.3%, CLAR -19.8%, NKTR -19.7%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Elizabeth Holmes sentenced to over 11 years in prison for Theranos crimes. (MarketWatch)
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks That Defined the Week: TGT, AMZN, SBUX, NVDA, LOW, LYV, GPS. (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business:  FTX’s Collapse (NYT)
    • Wall St Week Ahead With Black Friday ahead, investors look to U.S. consumer stocks. (Reuters)
    • Housing Industry Braces for a Downturn, but Investors Are Piling In. (WSJ)
    • Carvana (CVNA) Faces Cash Crunch From High Debt, Rising Interest Rates. (WSJ)
    • The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Board of Directors Appoints Robert A. Iger as Chief Executive Officer.
    • Federal Research Atlanta President Raphael Bostic: (Bloomberg)
      • Until inflation is on track to 2%, the fed has to resist the temptation for rate cuts even if economy weakens.
      • I expect 0.75 to 1 percentage point more of tightening to be sufficient to control inflation.
      • I’m ready to move away from 0.75 percentage point increases at december the meeting.
      •  The landing rate could be higher, but once reached, the fed should let some time pass before making future increases.
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: + on DG, TJX, ULTA, WMT, ATVI, MTCH of note.
      • Cautious View: COIN, SI, GBTC, AAPL of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • AERI Halt – Additional Information Requested by NASDAQ.
    • Aimco (AIV) Files Investor Presentation Highlighting Successful Execution of Value-Add Strategy Under Leadership of New Board of Directors and Management Team.
    • Builders FirstSource (BLDR) announces CEO transition; Dave Rush appointed interim CEO.
    • COMSovereign (COMS) Receives Anticipated Additional Delinquency Notice from Nasdaq.
    • TEVA appoints Richard Francis as President and CEO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -18, Dow Jones -65,  NASDAQ -90, and Russell 2000 -8. (as of 8:04 a.m. EST)Asian Markets are mostly lower as China keeps wrestling with Covid sanctions (Reuters).  European Markets are trading mostly lower with Italy down 1.2%.  VIX Futures are at 24.07 up 0.95 points or 4.11% . Gold and Silver lower. WTI Crude Oil lower and Brent Oil Futures are lower with Natural Gas up 1.03%. $ is lower vs Euro and Pound, but higher  vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.832% up from yesterday. Bitcoin is at $16,052 down 1.10% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive SectorsUtilities, Healthcare, Real Estate, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Industrials, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy, Basic Materials, Financials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Industrials, Financial, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

The Dow and S&P 500 finished a choppy session higher Friday, but with the main U.S. equity indexes still booking a weekly loss as doubts emerged about the staying power of a rally sparked by signs of easing U.S. inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.59% rose about 200 points, or 0.6%, ending near 33,747 Friday. The S&P 500 index SPX, +0.48% closed up 0.5%, but failed to end above the 4,000 mark after trading above that level several times intraday in past sessions this week. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.01% eked out a 0.01% gain Friday.  Stocks wobbled earlier this week after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the central bank’s rate could end up as high as 7%, up from the current 3.75% to 4% range. (MarketWatch)

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Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: ZM, MMS, ARWR, URBN, GDS, CMP, ENTA of note.
  • Tuesday Before the Open: MDT, ADI, DLTR, BIDU, BBY, DKS, VIPS, DY, CSIQ, AEO, SGHC, JACK, ROAD, CAL, ANF, AMWD of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: SJM +0.21, J +0.03.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.


  • Positive Guidance: SJM of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: DIS +9%, EAF +9%.
  • Gap Down: NIU -5%, COIN -5%.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: DIS, CVNA, COIN, SJM, IMGO, WSM, MDB. (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Disney (DIS) Shares Soar on Iger Return as CEO After Shock Ouster. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story:  Same as lead story. (Bloomberg)
  • Beijing’s biggest district urges residents to stay home as COVID cases rise. (Reuters)
  • EU agrees to COP27 compromise to keep Paris Agreement alive and protect those most vulnerable to climate change. (Release)
  • Collapsed FTX owes nearly $3.1 billion to top 50 creditors. (Reuters)
  • Biggest Railroad Unions Count Votes as Threat of Strike Looms. CSX, UNP, NSC, CP, CNI, IYT (WSJ)
  • Rivian (RIVN) Employees Say Rapid Production Led to Injuries, Safety Oversights in Illinois Plant. (Bloomberg)
  • Airlines Push for Lone Pilot Flights to Cut Costs Despite Safety Fears. UAL, AAL, DAL, JBLU, LUV, SAVE, HA, ULCC  (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score inches up to 71% from 65%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President pardons the National Thanksgiving Turkey, 11:15 a.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady depart the White House en route Joint Base Andrews, 4:00 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady depart Joint Base Andrews en route Marine Corps Air Station, Cherry Point, North Carolina, 4:20 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady arrive at Marine Corps Air Station, Cherry Point, North Carolina, 5:25 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady participate in a Friendsgiving dinner with service members and military families as part of the First Lady’s Joining Forces Initiative, 6:00 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady depart Marine Corps Air Station, Cherry Point, North Carolina en route Joint Base Andrews, 8:20 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady arrive at Joint Base Andrews, 9:30 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady depart Joint Base Andrews en route the White House, 9:40 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady arrive at the White House, 9:50 p.m. EST


  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Merck (MRK) to Acquire Imago BioSciences, Inc.( IMGO) for $36.00 per share.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BTIG Digital Health Forum
    • Kepler Cheuvreux Virtual Life Science Days (11/21/22-11/22/22)
    • Morgan Stanley Sustainable Megatrends Conference
    • Needham Consumer Tech / E-Commerce Conference
    • TD Securities Technology Conference (11/21/22-11/22/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • None of note.
  • Company Meetings: ELYS, OHPA
  • Fireside Chat: KITT
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: SNSE
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: