CAPIS Morning Note – 11/17/22: Stocks Selling Picks Up Overnight, GOP Gains Control Of House

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 3958.79 (lower by -0.83%) from Tuesday at 3991.73 (higher by 0.87%).  The overnight high of 3990.25 was hit at 3:20 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3936 at 6:40 p.m. EDT, a range of 54 points high to low which is above the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 3958.79 (lower by -0.83%) from Tuesday at 3991.73 (higher by 0.87%).  The overnight high of 3990.25 was hit at 3:20 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3936 at 6:40 p.m. EDT, a range of 54 points high to low which is above the recent range of 45.  At 7:00 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was lower by -26.50 points at 3942 which is -0.67%.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: CPA +0.23, KLIC +0.21, BBWI +0.20, HI +0.04, CSCO +0.02, SONO +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: GLBE (0.46), NVDA (0.12), CPRT (0.05), HP (0.03).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Arabian Entertainment Company, Ltd., a leading food, beverage and entertainment company in Saudi Arabia, enters into Business Combination Agreement with Sagaliam Acquisition Corp. (SAGA) Combined company is expected to trade on NASDAQ.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • BDSX: Announces Pricing of $35.1 Million Upsized Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • BNOX: Prices offering of 641,026 ADSs at $7.80 per ADS.
    • BKD: Announces Pricing of Tangible Equity Units Offering.
    • DZSI: Prices offering of 3,377,315 shares of common stock at $11.50 per share.
    • ORA: Prices offering of 3.75 million shares of common stock at $90.00 per share.
    • PRVA: Pricing of 5 million shares Secondary Offering. Priced @$23.50.
    • TNYA: 22.6 Million share offering priced at $2.60 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • OTEX: Announces Pricing of Notes Offering and Successful Term Loan Syndication as part of Micro Focus (MFGP) Acquisition Financing.
    • WOLF: Prices upsized private offering of $1,525 mln of its 1.875% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BDSX: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. $30Million. (Blair Bookmanager)
    • DZSI: Launch of Public Offering of Common Stock.. 2,507,750 shares. (Cowen and Stifel bookmanagers)
    • ORA: Public Offering of Common Stock on Behalf of Stockholder ORIX Corporation. 3,500,000 shares. (BAC and JPM Bookmanagers)
    • TNYA: Proposed Public Offering.. $75 million of shares. (MS and Piper bookmanagers)
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering:
    • SRGA: Closing of $12.0 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-the-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • UEC: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: BBWI +22%, CPA +6%.
    • Trading Down: TNYA -21%, KLIC -12%, GLBE -12%, DZSI -7%, BOWL -6%, ORA -5%, MKL -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: CSCO, BBWI, NVDA, SONO  (CNBC).
    • Nvidia (NVDA) earnings chopped in half, but tweaked servers to China offset earlier $400 million warning. (MarketWatch)
    • Federal Research Board of Governor Christopher Waller says he’s open to a half-point rate hike at the December meeting. (CNBC)
    • NYC Pitches Almost $24 Minimum Wage for UberEats (UBER), DoorDash (DASH) Workers by 2025. (Bloomberg)
    • Tesla (TSLA) board member says Elon Musk identified potential successor as CEO. (Reuters)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Andersons (ANDE) announces that Bill Krueger has been appointed as COO.
    • Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) Announces New Leadership Positions as Part of the Company’s Transformation.
    • Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR) promotes Ben Halladay to CFO.
    • i3 Verticals (IIIV) appointed Paul Christians as COO.
    • Kuke Music (KUKE) Announces Change of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm.
    • Kohl’s (KSS) Board has formed search committee to oversee the search for a new CEO while Tom Kingsbury has agreed to serve as Interim CEO during the transition period.
    • Marinus Pharmaceuticals (MRNS) Appoints CEO Scott Braunstein, M.D., as Chairman of the Board.
    • Markel Corp (MKL) announces that Thomas Gayner will become sole CEO.
    • Moog (MOG.A) announces CEO transition; company appoints Patrick Roche to succeed John Scannell.
    • Moxian (MOXC) Receives NASDAQ Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Requirements.
    • Post (POST) promotes former Treasurer Matt Mainer to CFO; promotes former CFO Jeff Zadoks to COO.
    • Seadrill Limited (SDRL) commences trading on the Oslo Stock Exchange.
    • Sonos (SONO) appoints interim CFO Eddie Lazarus to full-time CFO.
    • Summit Materials, Inc. (SUM) Announces Senior Leadership Change.
    • UCLOUDLINK GROUP INC. (UCL) Regains Nasdaq Compliance Regarding Minimum Market Value of Publicly Held Shares.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Arconic (ARNC) Announces $200 Million Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • BABA:  In addition, our board of directors has approved to increase our existing share repurchase program by another US$15 billion and extend the program through the end of March 2025.
    • NTES Board of directors has approved a new share repurchase program of up to US$5.0 billion of the Company’s ADSs and ordinary shares in open market transactions. This new share repurchase program will be in effect for a period not to exceed 36 months.
    • Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Announces $300 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Sonos (SONO) Announces $100 Million Stock Repurchase Program and Completion of Previous Stock Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • IM Cannabis (IMCC) Common Shares Commence Trading on Consolidated Basis After 1 for 10 Reverse Stock Split..
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Agilent (A) increases its quarterly dividend 7% to $0.225 per share. (MarketWatch)
    • Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) increases its quarterly dividend by $0.02 per share to $0.19 per share.
    • Matthews (MATW) increase its quarterly dividend to $0.23 per share.
    • PennantPark Investment (PNNT) increases quarterly distribution to $0.165 per share.
    • Siemens (SIEGY) proposes to increase the dividend from €4.00 a year earlier to €4.25 per share.
    • WesBanco Inc (WSBC) approves increase to quarterly dividend by $0.01 to $0.35 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -34, Dow Jones -254,  NASDAQ -101,  and Russell 2000 -19. (as of 8:10 a.m. EDT). Europe lower and Asia lower.  VIX Futures are at 25.37 from 24.85  yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 24.11 from 23.73 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil lower and Brent Oil Futures are lower with Natural Gas higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.723% from 3.771% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $16,551 from $16,825  yesterday morning and is higher by -0.02% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors:  Utlities of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Basic Materials of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Industrials, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy, Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Industrials, Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

The S&P 500 fell Wednesday after stronger-than-expected retail sales data kept investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.  The broad stock market index fell 32.94 points, or 0.8%, to 3958.79, while the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 174.75 points, or 1.5%, to 11183.66. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 39.09 points, or 0.1%, closing the day at 33,553.83.  Investors are trying to ascertain how resilient both consumers and businesses are to price pressures and high borrowing costs. Wednesday’s data showed U.S. retail sales rose strongly in October, up 1.3% from the prior month. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 1.2% increase.  (WSJ)

 Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: AMAT, PANW, ROST, WSM, UGI, DLB, WWD, POST, GPS, BRBR, STNE, ESE of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: JD, ATKR, FL, BKE, SPB, TWST of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: NTES +3.88, BABA +1.32, M +0.33, BJ +0.15, KSS +0.07, NJR +0.05, DOLE +0.04, BRC +0.02, CAMT +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: PLCE (0.40), WB (0.02), BV (0.01), CLBT (0.01).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: SONO, CSCO, BJ of note.
  • Negative Guidance: GLBE, NVDA, KLIC, BV, PLCE of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: ARDX +77%, BBWI +21%, CTRM +7%, CPA +6%, SONO +4%.
  • Gap Down: TNYA -20%, DZSI -15%, BNOX -13%, GLBE -11%, ORA -9%, SI -7%, MKL -4%, NTES -4%, BOWL -4%.

Insider Action: ALIT, SMCI, RYAN, COTY sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves:  BJ KSS M BABA NVDA CSCO BBWI SONO NCLH. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Wednesday. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  US Futures Fall As Fed Officials Dampen Pivot Hopes. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story:  GOP retakes House. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia renews Ukraine grain deal. (WSJ)
  • Guangzhou experiencing record COVID outbreak. (FT)
  • China aims to increase Covid-19 vaccinations. (Reuters)
  • JP Morgan predicts a mild recession in 2023, gee thanks for that brilliant insight. (Reuters)
  • JP Morgan Portfolio Managers bet on left for dead 60/40 strategy. (Bloomberg)
  • Must See TV: CNBC Interview with Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, finished at 7:30 a.m. EDT. (CNBC)
  • UK Finance Minister announces tax hikes and spending cuts, says the country is in a recession. This could create a depression there (opinion). (CNBC)
  • Kohl’s (KSS) pulls full year outlook. (CNBC)
  • Microsoft (MSFT) CEO is bullish on China and India as well as the rest of Asia. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Short term moving averages take it for the team.  Score goes down to 65%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 12:00 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • October Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to drop to 1,415,000 from 1,439,000.
  • November Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to -9 from -8.7.
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
  • EIA natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Research Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 7:30 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard 8:00 a.m. ET
  • Federal Research Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 9:15 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 9:40 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari 1:45 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Elevate (ELVT) to be Acquired by Park Cities Asset Management.
  • Globant (GLOB) announces the acquisition of eWave.
  • Stealth BioTherapeutics Corp Announces Completion of Merger. (MITO)
  • Wabtec (WAB) Acquires Super Metal to Grow Its Railway Maintenance Portfolio.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Company Meetings: AVT, CBRL
  • Fireside Chat: APD, LYEL, ICD
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AFG, APG, ARDX, GLRE, GM, HUM, IBM, IMUX, INM, NMIH, NOVA, ORMP, PACB, PG, QMCO, SKYX, UDMY, VRAY
    • API Group (API). Transcat (TRNS) and Extreme Networks (EXTR) hold analyst meetings and are both Type 1 Short Squeezes. On TRNS and EXTR the shorts make money more than 50% of the time.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: BASFY, SRNE.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: