CAPIS Morning Note – 11/16/20: Groundhog Day, Another Week Another Vaccine

Breaking News: Last Monday stocks roared on news that Pfizer (PFE) had a vaccine with a 90% effectiveness rate. This week Moderna (MRNA) is out with a vaccine with 94.5% effectiveness. Stocks are higher this morning, but the NASDAQ is falling again. Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the…

Breaking News: Last Monday stocks roared on news that Pfizer (PFE) had a vaccine with a 90% effectiveness rate. This week Moderna (MRNA) is out with a vaccine with 94.5% effectiveness. Stocks are higher this morning, but the NASDAQ is falling again.

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. Expect volatility to continue post election until the President recognizes the President-Elect, though President Trump did for five minutes over the weekend before he took it back. Last Friday’s early strength saved the rest of  last week resulting in a positive gain.

Covid-19 Statistics:

Total Cases 10,897,771 from 10,752,101
Recovered 4,185,463 from 4,148,444
Deaths 237,625 from 236,953
Tests 1,475,115 from 1,656,391
New Cases 145,670 from 163,473 with positivity rate +9.8% (up 0.2%)
Daily Deaths 672
Current Hospitalizations 69,987 from 69,455

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: None of note.

Secondaries Priced: None of note.

Notes Priced of note:  None of note.

Common Stock filings:  CSTM REZI  of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings:  IMUX REZI of note.

Convertible Offering Files: GH of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close on Yesterday:


None  of note.


None of note.

News After The Close:

Merck (MRK) gets approval from the FDA for KEYTRUDA for triple negative breast cancer.

President Trump makes comments on vaccines during Operation Warp Speed Meeting, vaccine out by April.

Several 13F updates out from hedge fund managers Seth Klarman, Jeffrey Smith, Carl Icahn, George Soros and Dan Loeb of note.

Ovintiv (OVV) looks to sell Eagle Ford acreage.

Telsa (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk notes he probably has a mild case of Covid-19.


What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 +32   Dow Jones Industrial Average +455  NASDAQ -41  Russell 2000 +38. Fair values are lower.  Asia  and Europe higher.

Gold and silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $137.89 from $138.20 with the yield at .908% from 0.885% .

Positive Sectors On Friday: Real Estate, Energy and Industrials of note.

Negative Sectors On Friday:  None of note. 

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close: BIDU, GDS, TCOM, IQ, AZPN, YY, API, SDC, MSGE, GAN of note.

Tuesday Before The Open: WMT, HD, SE, ARMK, KSS, JKS, NJR, AQUA of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:


JD +0.71, PANW +0.29, AZUL +0.13, ACM +0.03  of note.



CSPR (0.05) of note.

Still To Report: TSN

Hourly Action: A struggle this week despite the “gappy action”. Updated through 11/12.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 11/13 Close. 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

FBM +25%, VJET +22%, BBVA +17%, OBSV +16%, ABUS +10%, TCO +8%, DVAX +6%, PLTR +6%, AOSL +5%, SPG +4%

Gap Down:

CSPR -17%, REZI -3%

Gapping down:

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves MRNA CSPR UBER. (CNBC)

Biggest Analyst Calls T CHWY CMG MCF. (CNBC)

Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.

Moderna (MRNA) announces longer shelf life for its Covid-19 vaccine with 94.5% efficacy rate. (CNBC)

China gets a trade deal with 14 Asian countries.

Incoming White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain calls for stimulus bill now, not later. (NBC News)

Michigan and Washington increased restrictions  on gatherings and indoor dining. (WSJ)

Stock Index Trading & Key Moving Averages:

Current through 11/13 close. Several more indexes broke their 5 day moving averages on Thursday.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 11/12 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg and eSignal. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting


November Empire State Manufacturing is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 14 from 10.5.

Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims as well as Empire State Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators .

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump has no public events scheduled.

Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes are due out at 7:00 p.m. EST.

Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:

SHSP (Outlook) UAVS DSGT GNUS  (Update) MSTR CMI (Analyst Day) SGEN (R&D Day)

Sellside Conferences: Wolfe Research Industrials Conference (11/10-11/16) Needham Networking, Communicaton and Security Conference (11/16-11/17) Citi FinTech Conference (11/16-11/19) Stephens Annual Investment Conference (11/16-11/20) Stifel Global Healthcare Conference (11/16-11/18) RBC Annual Global Mining & Materials Conference (11/16-11/17)

Industry Conferences:


Home Depot (HD) to buy back HD Supply (HDS) for $56 a share in cash, preventing Lowe’s (LOW) from buying HDS.

PNC to buy BBVA USA Bancshares of $11.6 billion.

Recommendations By Sellside Firms: Upgrades and Downgrades From Today