CAPIS Morning Note – 11/15/22: Stocks Rebounding Into PPI At 8:30 A.M. EST

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 3957.52 (lower by -0.89%) from Friday at 3992.93 (higher by 0.92%).  The overnight high of 3999.50 was hit at 5:15 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3966.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT, a range of 33 points high to low which is below the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 3957.52 (lower by -0.89%) from Friday at 3992.93 (higher by 0.92%).  The overnight high of 3999.50 was hit at 5:15 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3966.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT, a range of 33 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was higher by +32 points at 3989 which is 0.80%.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: HLLY +0.22, JJSF +0.13, AZTA +0.09, SHLS +0.02.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: DLO (0.02).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • ACRV: Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering. 7,550,000 shares @$12.50.
    • ALIT: Pricing of Secondary Offering. Priced @$7.75
    • CRSR: Prices offering of 4,545,455 shares of common stock at $16.50 per share.
    • ECVT: Prices secondary offering of 17.5 mln shares of common stock at $8.25 per share.
    • PTLO: Portillo’s Inc. Announces Pricing of Offering of Class A Common Stock in “Synthetic Secondary” Transaction.
    • SKYT: Prices common stock offering.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • ENV: Announces Pricing of Upsized $500 Million Convertible Notes Offering.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AGS: PROPOSED SECONDARY OFFERING.. 8,208,076 shares. (JPM and B.Riley bookmanagers)
    • CRSR: Public Offering of Common Stock.. $75Million. (GS Bookmanager)
    • CSWC: Offering of Shares of Common Stock.. $46Million. (RJ, UBS, WFC and GS Bookmanagers)
    • DXR: Launch of Proposed Underwritten Public Offering. (Gunnar Bookmanager)
    • PTLO: Offering of Class A Common Stock in “Synthetic Secondary” Transaction. 8M Shares. (BAC and Jefferies Underwriters)
    • SKYT: Offering of Shares of Common Stock. (Needham bookmanager)
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • ECVT: Secondary Offering of 16,000,000 Shares of Common Stock by Selling Stockholders AND Repurchase of Common Stock. (GS, DB and CS Bookmanagers)
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • PTLO: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • VLD: Filed Form S-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • WBX: Files $500 million mixed securities shelf offering.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • CQP: Pricing of $430 Million Senior Secured Amortizing Notes due 2037 by Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC.
    • VRAY: Expands Access to Non-Dilutive Capital With New Debt Facility.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: AZTA +34%, SHLS +20%, NU +14%, LPX +10%, IMGM +9%, TSM +6%, JEF +4%RUM +4%, LXRX +4%.
    • Trading Down: GETY -18%, AGS -13%, ECVT -10%, HPK -8%, IONQ -8%, DNA -7%, CRSR -7%, WBX -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: TSM, PARA, LPX, JEF (CNBC).
    • Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) discloses stakes in TSMC (TSM), Jefferies (JEF), Louisiana-Pacific (LPX), sending those stocks higher. (MarketWatch)
    • Amazon (AMZN) reportedly plans to lay off about 10,000 employees starting this week. (CNBC)
    • Estée Lauder (EL) Nears Deal to Buy Tom Ford, Edging Out Kering SA. (WSJ)
    • Leading Health and Fitness Apps Roll Out Health Connect Integrations – GOOGL+ (Android Developers Blog)
    • Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) awarded $20 million contract by U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Delayed 10-Q Filings: GATO, RGTI, DWAC, RBT, BMBL
    • Cohn Robbins Holdings Corp. (CRHC) Receives Notice from the NYSE Regarding Immediate Suspension in Trading of Securities and Commencement of Delisting Proceedings.
    • CURO Group (CURO) announced that Doug Clark has been named CEO.
    • Enviva (EVA) names Thomas Meth as its next CEO; John Keppler, Chairman and CEO, to assume the role of Executive Chairman
    • Dr. Scott Brun, M.D. Appointed to Forte Biosciences (FBRX) Board of Directors.
    • Holley Inc. (HLLY) appoints Brian Appelgate as Interim COO.
    • Janus Henderson Group (JHG) appoints John Cassaday to succeed Richard Gillingwater as Chair of the Janus Henderson Board.
    • Trevi Therapeutics (TRVI) Appoints Pharma Industry Veteran as Chief Medical Officer.
    • Troika Media Group Inc. (TRKA) Adds Additional Depth to Board of Directors.
    • Vaalco Energy (EGY) promotes Thor Pruckl to COO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • AZTA: Authorizes $1.5 Billion Share Repurchase Program.
    • Berry Global (BERY) increases existing stock repurchase program to $1.0 billion, up from the ~$340 million remaining under the program.
    • EGAN: Announces $20 Million Stock Repurchase Program.
    • ECVT: See Capital Raises – Selling Shareholders above.
    • WMT: Subsequent to the third quarter the Company approved a new $20 billion share repurchase authorization replacing its existing authorization, which had approximately $1.9 billion remaining at the end of Q3.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Arcimoto (FUV) Announces Board’s Approval of Reverse Stock Split Ratio and Effectiveness Date.
    • NovaBay Pharmaceuticals (NBY) Announces 1-for-35 Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +41, Dow Jones +209,  NASDAQ +184,  and Russell 2000 +18. (as of 8:07 a.m. EDT)Europe lower ex France and Asia higher.  VIX Futures are at 24.85 from 25.60 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 23.73 from 24 yesterday. Gold higher, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures are lower with Natural Gas higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and Lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.81% from 3.897% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $16,825 from $16,691.37 yesterday morning and is higher by 3.49% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors:  None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical, Utilities, Financial, Technology of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Industrials, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy, Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Industrials, Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stocks closed lower Monday amid rising Treasury yields, as investors assessed the recent equities rally that had been sparked by optimism that inflation may be easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 0.6%, while the S&P 500 slid 0.9% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1%, according to preliminary FactSet data. Investors keep looking for clues on how aggressively the Federal Reserve may need to be lifting interest rates to battle high inflation, as well as where its terminal rate could wind up. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Monday in an interview with Bloomberg that she thinks “it will probably be appropriate soon to choose a slower pace of increases.” The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 3.7 basis points Monday to 3.86%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.  (MarketWatch)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: AAP, VREX, SRRK of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: LOW, TJX, TGT, ONON, RS of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: HUYA +0.54, SE +0.29, WMT +0.18, TME +0.14, HD +0.12, BERY +0.04, DAVA +0.03, ENR +0.03, VVV +0.03, AQUA +0.01.
  • Flat: ARMK +0.00.
  • Misses: IHS (0.09), WKME (0.08), DNUT (0.01).
  • Still to Report: None of note.


  • Positive Guidance: AZTA, DNA, IHS, DAVA of note.
  • Negative Guidance: WKME, BERY of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: AZTA +32%, SHLS +17%, NU +15%, TME +14%, VLD +14%, HUYA +11%, IMGN +11%, TSM +10%, LPX +10%, CLVT +9%, HLLY +8%, MGNI +6%, RUM +5%, JEF +4%.
  • Gap Down: AGS -15%, GETY -12%, ECVT -10%, CRSR -8%, PTLO -7%, VOD -5%, SKYT -5%, JJSF -4%, IONQ -4%.

Insider Action: BALL, COTY sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  RIG, OPRT sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: WMT VOD GETY HD ENR TSM BBWI EL TME. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Friday. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Ken Griffin Tells Trump “A Three Time Loser” to Step Aside for DeSantis. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Elon Musk Publicly Punishes Twitter Engineers Who Called Him Out Online.  (Bloomberg)
  • G-20 Nations to condemn Russia on Ukraine as Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov watches. (CNBC)
  • Chinese retail and industrial data miss expectations. (CNBC)
  • Former President Donald Trump is set to announce his third run for president. (Bloomberg)
  • GOP is one seat away from the control of the House. (NYT)
  • Flu hospitalizations are surging in the U.S. (CNBC)
  • FTX could have one million creditors in the bankruptcy filing. (CNBC)
  • Home Depot (HD) has a better than expected quarter. (CNBC)
  • Walmart (WMT) raises outlook as groceries boost sales, inventory glut recedes. (CNBC)
  • Airline passengers to receive $600 million in refunds from canceled flights. (NBC News)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score slips 3% to 85%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President attends Working Session 2 of the G20 Summit (2:00 PM Local), 1:00 a.m. EST
    • The President co-hosts an event with President Widodo of Indonesia and President Von der Leyen of the European Commission on the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (3:45 PM Local), 2:45 a.m. EST
    • The President meets with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy (5:15 PM Local), 4:15 a.m. EST
    • The President attends the G20 Gala Dinner (7:30 PM Local), 6:30 a.m. EST


  • G-20 kicks off in Bali. Russian President Putin will not attend.
  • November Empire State Manufacturing is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at -7.5 from -9
  • October PPI is due out also at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to remain at 0.4% with core still at 0.3%.
  • Redbook Sales, 8:55 a.m. EST
  • API Crude Oil Data, 4:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Research Board of Governors Lisa D. Cook, 9:00 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker, 9:00 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr, 10:00 a.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • BrightView (BV) Acquires Apex Land Group.
  • Dolphin Entertainment (DLPN) Acquires Influencer Marketing Powerhouse Socialyte.
  • LCI Industries (LCII) subsidiary Furrion LLC acquires Way Interglobal Network.
  • Wintrust Fin (WTFC) to acquire two asset management businesses from Rothschild & Co.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Company Meetings: KWAC, NWS, TPR.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AFL, AMK, AUUD, BRP, LMND, PACB, PAVM, PLNT, SEIC, SPIR, VMW.
    • Winnebago (WGO) and Watts Water Technologies (WTS) are both Type 1 Short Squeezes with analyst meetings. On both names, the shorts make money more than 50% of the time.


  • Update:
    • ImmunoGen (IMGN) Conference Call on Approval of ELAHERE for the Treatment of Platinum-Resistant Ovarian Cancer.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:
    • NYSE Industrials Virtual Investor Access Day 2022 (11/15/22-11/16/22) (SON, BKSY, ML, WTS, REZI, LPX, STN)
    • The 7th Special Food Congress 2022 (11/15/22-11/17/22)
    • The Psychedelics Business Forum at MJBizCon 2022
    • ELECTRONICA 2022 (11/15/22-11/18/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Financial Brand Forum 2022 (11/14/22-11/16/22)
        • Precious Metals Summit Europe 2022 (11/14/22-11/15/22)
        • World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting on Cybersecurity 2022 (11/14/22-11/16/22)
        • World Orphan Drug Congress Europe 2023 (11/14/22-11/17/22)
        • Phocuswright Conference 2022 (11/14/22-11/17/22)
        • Society for Neuroscience (SfN) Annual Meeting 2022 (11/12/22-11/16/22)
        • Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) North America 43rd Annual Meeting 2022 (11/13/22-11/17/22)
        • EEI 57th Annual Electric Company Financial Conference 2022 (11/13/22-11/15/22) (MC, GS, MFG, EIX, AQN, ALE, AEE, AEP, AWK, AGR, BKH, CNP, CMS, ED, D, DTE, DUK, ETR, WTRG, EVRG, ES, EXC, HE, IDA, NEE, NI, NWE, OGE, PNW, POR, PPL, SRE, SO, XEL, AY, PEG)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: