CAPIS Morning Note – 11/14/23: CPI Data For October Due Out as 8:30 a.m. EDT, Expectations Are For A Low Print

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by -0.08% at 4411.55 from Friday higher by 1.56% at 4415.24. The overnight high was hit at 4437 at 4:25 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4425 at 1:05 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 12 points as of 6:25 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by -0.08% at 4411.55 from Friday higher by 1.56% at 4415.24. The overnight high was hit at 4437 at 4:25 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4425 at 1:05 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 12 points as of 6:25 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 16.80 from 18.60 from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-October average was 22.06 from 20.96. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +4.75 points which is  0.11% at 7:10 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: SLF +0.43, AZTA +0.11, ACM +0.04 of note.
  • Flat:  None of note.
  • Misses:  SKIN (0.63), ASUR (0.16), HROW (0.13), FSR (0.04) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • SGN: Pricing of Initial Public Offering.. 1,200,000 shares of common stock at a price to the public of $5.00 per share.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Mars Acquisition Corp. (MARX) Announces Confidential Submission of Form S-4 Registration Statement Related to Proposed Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • AER AerCap prices secondary offering of 26,721,633 of its ordinary shares by GE Capital US Holdings for $65.25 per share.
    • DV: Pricing of Secondary Offering by Selling Stockholders. 12,500,000 shares @$30.45.
    • RWAY: Pricing of Secondary Offering of Common Stock by Selling Stockholders @$12.56. (WFC, MS, BAC and UBS Bookmanagers)
    • VNOM: Pricing of Secondary Common Stock Offering by Certain Stockholders and Concurrent Stock Repurchase – 9,018,760 shares. (BCS Bookmanager)
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • FSK: Prices Public Offering of $400 million 7.875% Unsecured Notes Due 2029.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AER: Secondary Share Offering and Share Repurchase. 26,721,633 ordinary shares. (GS, Citi, DB, BNP, BAC and JPM Bookmanager)
    • ALLK: Files $250 million common stock offering.
    • LQR: Announces Closing of $11 Million Public Offering.
    • OPGN: Filed Form S-3.. 10,892,728 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon the Exercise of Common Warrants.
    • RWAY: Announces secondary offering of 3.75 common stocks by OCM Growth Holdings LLC and Oaktree Opportunities Fund XB Holdings.
    • SCYX: Filed Form S-3.. 32,516,267 Shares.
    • SKWD: Files for 4,500,000 shares of common stock.
    • SMAP: Filed Form S-1.. Resale of up to 16,722,749 Shares of Common Stock – Resale of 506,250 Private Placement Warrants -Issuance of up to 10,534,925 Shares of Common Stock underlying Warrants and Options.
  • Direct Offering:
    • BSGM: $2.5 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-the-Market Under Nasdaq Rules. (Wainwright Placement Agent)
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • DV: Files for 12,500,000 shares of common stock by selling shareholder.
    • ENVX: Files for 5,923,521 shares of common stock by selling shareholder.
    • VNOM: Secondary Common Stock Offering By Certain Stockholders and Concurrent Stock Repurchase – 9,018,760 shares. (BCS Bookmanager)
    • VYNE: Filed Form S-3.. 39,266,980 Shares Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • EMR: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • HOG: Filed Form S-3.. Mixed Shelf.
    • IGMS: Files $400 million mixed shelf securities offering.
    • NOTE: Filed Form S-3.. $100Million Mixed Shelf.
    • PEG: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • RPHM: Files $300 million mixed shelf securities offering.
    • SGMS: Filed Form S-3.. $400,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • STRO: Files mixed shelf securities offering.TELA: Filed Form S-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • BB: Announces Partial Extension of Convertible Debentures.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: PROK +10%, DWAC +5%, VKTX +4%, CTLT +4%, AZTA +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: SKIN -38%, HROW -15%, FSR -13%, ASUR -9%, VRDN -7%, CCBG -5%, RWAY -5%, VNOM -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Apple (AAPL) Gets 36% of Google (GOOGL) Revenue in Search Deal, Expert Says. (Bloomberg)
    • Stellantis (STLA) Plans Buyouts for U.S. Salaried Workers. (WSJ)
    • General Dynamics (GD) Awarded $2.5 Billion IDIQ Contract for Electronic Health Record Modernization by the Indian Health Service.
    • ICF International (ICFI) recently awarded a new $36 million task order from The U.S. Department of Homeland Security Office of Human Capital.
    • and just for fun: McDonald’s (MCD) and Crocs (CROX) are releasing a line of $75 shoes inspired by Grimace and the Hamburglar. (CNBC)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • 10-Q Delayed Filings: SPWR, CCBG, CTKB, SKIN, CTLT, DWAC, FSR, JCI
    • Ardelyx (ARDX) Announces Departure of Board Member.
    • BEST Inc. (BEST) Receives Notice Regarding NYSE Continued Listing Standards.
    • Five9 (FIVN) appointed Andy Dignan as COO.
    • Jowell Global Ltd. (JWEL) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq’s Minimum Bid Price Rule.
    • Kubient (KBNT) Announces Voluntary Delisting from the Nasdaq Capital Market.
    • MarketAxess (MKTX) announces that it has appointed global markets industry veteran Christopher Gerosa as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer.
    • Nuvation Bio (NUVB) announces departure of CFO Jennifer Fox.
    • BeautyHealth (SKIN) Andrew Stanleick to depart, effective November 19; Marla Beck to serve as Interim CEO.
    • Vital Energy (VTLE) announces promotion of Katie Hill to Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • AECOM (ACM) affirms its capital allocation policy, increases share repurchase authorization to $1 billion and increases its quarterly dividend by 22%.
    • AER to repurchase approximately $500 million.
    • Azenta (AZTA) increases buyback authorization by $500 million.
    • Coty (COTY) Increases Share Repurchase Program by $600 Million to Accommodate Planned Hedged Share Buyback Transaction of Additional 25 Million Shares.
    • Danaos (DAC) increases buyback authorization by $100 million.
    • Leju (LEJU) Announces up to US$2 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Viper Energy Partners (VNOM) intends to purchase at least one million of the shares of its Class A common stock.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • CELH will trade post 3/1 split today.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • AECOM (ACM) (see Buyback above)
    • Danaos (DAC) raises dividend (see Buyback too)
    • RPT Realty (RPT) declares special dividend of $0.05444 per common share in connection with the previously announced merger agreement with Kimco Realty (KIM).
    • Star Bulk Carriers Corp (SBLK) Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.22 Per Share.
    • Sun Life (SLF) increases common share dividend 4% to $0.78 per share.
    • XP approves cash dividend of $0.73 per share; representing a 25% increase over previous dividend paid in September.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -1, Dow Jones -22,  NASDAQ +23, and Russell 2000 -1.  (as of 7:49 a.m. EST).  Asia is higher and Europe is higher ex the FTSE this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.77 from 16.12  yesterday.  Gold is lower with Silver higher and Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas higher as well for a second day in a row. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4,62% from 4.63% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $36,337 from $36,724 Monday, lower by -1.29% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Real Estate, Technology of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Defensive, Consumer Cyclical and Financials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology and Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Energy, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical and Industrials of note.

A large order for jets helped boost Boeing (BA) shares Monday in an otherwise quiet day for U.S. markets ahead of key inflation data.   Given a lift by Boeing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%, or roughly 55 points. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2%.  Boeing climbed 4% after Dubai-based Emirates Airline said it would buy 95 aircraft from the jet maker. Investors were also watching closely to see if China would resume purchases of Boeing’s 737 Max aircraft after President Biden meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Wednesday.   (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: HUYA +0.68, ENR +0.07, HD +0.06, CLBT +0.06, ONON +0.06, WKME +0.05 of note.
  • Flat: ARMK +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: VIPS (1.32), IHS (0.82), CSIQ (0.50), SE (0.38), TME (0.09), SBH (0.04), PSFE (0.03), OCSL (0.03), NUVL (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: CAE of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: MNDY, GENI, ACM, ONON of note.
  • Negative Guidance: TSN, NABL, HROW, SKIN, ASUR, VIPS, CSIQ, ARMK, RMK, SBH, ENR, WKME of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: ABSI +15%, PROK +7%, AZTA +6%, TECK +4%  of note.
  • Gap Down: SKIN -54%, HROW -25%, FSR -14%, CSIQ -13%, RWAY -6%, VNOM -6%, ASUR -6%, CCBG -5%, ONON -5%, VIPS -4% of note.

Insider Action: BRP, VFC sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  ZNTL sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things You Need To Know Before You Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: US Inflation Report to Keep Fed Leaning For More Rate Hikes. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: UBS Strategists See Far Deeper Rate Cuts Than What Markets Are Pricing. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks edge higher as trader’s bet on slowing inflation: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen says she disagrees with Moody’s negative outlook on U.S. (Bloomberg)
  • Former Federal Reserve St. Louis James Bullard says Fed has “ways to go” on inflation. (CNBC)
  • A high stakes read on CPI is due this morning. (NYT)
  • Airlines feeling the impact of Israel-Hamas War with bookings hit. (CNBC)
  • Boeing (BA) rises on order from Ethiopian Airlines. (MarketWatch)
  • Home Depot (HD) beats on earnings but sees tepid outlook ahead. (CNBC)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace:  Mexican coders and crossing the cultural border with Silicon Valley.  (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily:  Hamas’s Bloody Arithmetic (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: WHO notes Gaza’s biggest hospital becoming a cemetery.  (Podcast) 
  • Bloomberg:  Why Would You Invest in Emerging Markets? (Podcast) `
  • Wealthion: How high rates will impact your life? (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score levels out at 82% from 86%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President delivers remarks on his Administration’s historic actions to address the climate crisis, 10:10 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews, 11:10 a.m. EST
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to San Francisco, California, 11:30 a.m. EST
    • Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby will speak aboard Air Force One en route to San Francisco, California, 1:00 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives in San Francisco, California (1:40 PM Local), 4:40 p.m. EST
    • The President and The Vice President participate in a campaign reception (6:45 PM Local), 9:45 p.m. EST

Economic:

  • NFIB Small Business Index 6:00 a.m. EST
    • Actual 90.7 (Forecast 90.5, Previous 90.80)
  • October CPI is out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to fall to 0.1% from 0.4%.Core CPI is expected to stay at 0.3%.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Philip N. Jefferson 5:30 a.m. EST
    • Uncertainty around inflation persistence may warrant a stronger policy response than otherwise.
    • Some measures of economic uncertainty, particularly for inflation, are elevated.
    • Policy decisions taken under uncertainty may look different from those optimal under certainty.
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 10:00 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 11:00 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee 12:45 p.m. EST

M&A Activity and News: 

  • Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) acquires Cobram, Victoria-based Edgar Insurance Brokers; financial terms were not disclosed.
  • First Financial (THFF) announces agreement to acquire SimplyBank for $718.38 per share in cash and an aggregate value of $73.4 million.
  • LL: F9 Investments Proposes to Acquire LL Flooring Holdings for $3.00 Per Share in Cash and Nominates Three Highly Qualified Directors to the Board.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BAC Securities Global Energy Conference
    • Benchmark Week
    • Jefferies London Healthcare Conference
    • Jefferies Miami Consumer Conference
    • Nareit’s REITworld Annual Conference
    • Needham Security Networking & Communications Conference
    • Northcoast Research Fall Forum conference
    • Piper Sandler East Coast Financial Services Conf
    • RBC Global Technology Internet Media Telecommunications Conf
    • Roth MKM Technology
    • Sidoti Micro-Cap Virtual Conference
    • Stephens Investment Conference
    • Stifel Healthcare Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Credit Suisse Healthcare Conference
        • Gartner IT Symposium
        • Wolfe Research Healthcare Conference
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: BGC. PCSA, UAVS
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AFRM, APO, APPF, BJRI, BWMX, DKNG, EG, INXP, LRN, SLP, THR,  VSEC, VTRS
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • APEC Summit
    • College of Rheumatology Convergence
    • Connectivity Standards Alliance
    • Neuroscience 2023
    • NYSE Industrials conference
    • Vaccines Summit
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: