Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.81% at 4347.35 from Wednesday higher by 0.10% at 4382.78. It was the first losing day in November for the S&P 500. The overnight high was hit at 4375.75 at 3:10 a.m. EST while the low was hit at 4354.25 at 7:40 p.m. EST. The range overnight was 21 points as of 7:20 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 19.80 from 19.70 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-October average was 22.06 from 20.96. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by 1.75 points which is  +0.04% at 7:20 a.m. EST.

Stat of the Week: The S&P 500 is now down -0.25% for the week while the Russell 2000 is lower by -4.17% and the S&P 400 Mid Cap is down -2.79%. A lack of follow-through after last week’s rally needs to be watched closely.

    

Short Interest Release (www.goodmorningwallst.com): Bi-Weekly release as of 11/09/23 close.

 

Earnings Out After The Close: 

• IPOs Priced or News:
  • CARGO Therapeutics (CRGX) prices IPO. 18.75 million shares at $15 per share.
• New SPACs launched/News:
  • Relativity Acquisition Corp. (RACY) Announces Funding and Extension of Deadline to Complete Business Combination.
• Secondaries Priced:
  • CPK: Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock
  • TKO: prices secondary offering of 8.4 mln shares of common stock at $79.80 per share.
• Notes Priced of note:
  • SPR: Announces Pricing of Private Offering of $1.2 Billion Aggregate Principal Amount of 9.750% Senior Secured Second Lien Notes Due 2030.
• Common Stock filings/Notes:
  • AUUD: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 52,631,578 Shares of Common Stock.
  • ENSC: Filed Form S-1 Offering Up to 2,412,862 Shares of Common Stock Underlying Notes Up to 3,767,091 Shares of Common Stock Underlying Common Warrants.
  • EVOK: Filed Form S-1 Offering.
  • FBIO: Announces Launch of Proposed Public Offering.
  • FENC: Files $90 million common stock offering.
  • INVO: Announces Commencement of Waiver Solicitation From Holders of the Company’s Common Stock Purchase Warrants.
  • MRAI offering withdrawal.
• Direct Offering: None of note.
• Selling Shareholders of note:
  • DBD: Files for 19,511,852 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
  • FOUR: Files for 3,510,362 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
  • SKYW: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 785,226 Shares of Common Stock by selling shareholder.
  • TKO: Announces Secondary Offering of 8,400,000 Shares of Class A Common Stock by a Selling Stockholder.
• Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • HOG: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
  • YPR: Filed Form S-3.. $150 million Mixed Shelf
  • INO: Filed Form S-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • INTT: Files $100 million mixed shelf securities offering.
  • IONQ: Filed Form S-3.. $500 million Mixed Shelf.
  • IRWD: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf.
  • LMND: Files mixed shelf securities offering; also files for 11,983,384 shares of common stock by selling shareholder.
  • PHAT: Filed Form S-3.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • PIII: Files $250 million mixed shelf securities offering.
  • TARS: Filed Form S-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
• Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • HUM: Completes Aggregate $1.35 Billion Debt Offering.
  • SU: Announces C$1.5 billion medium-term note offering.
• Tender Offer: None of note.
• Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
  • EYE: Announces Repurchase of $100 Million of Convertible Notes.
  • U: Filed Form S-3ASR.. $1,000,000,000 2.0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 and any Common Stock issuable upon conversion thereof.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

• After Hours: 
  • Trading Up: DOCS +20%, OUST +13%, SYNA +9%, BLNK +8%, ALRM +8%, TARS +7%, ONL +7%, VZIO +7%, NVTS +7%, ORGN +5%, BRNS +5%,  IGT +4%, INDI +4% of note.
  • Trading Down: GRPN -30%, TTD -29%, PLUG -21%, WEST -18%, TWOU -17%, TMCI -16%, U -14%, BW -13%, MODN -12%, VUZI -12%, LAW -9%, EVBG -8%, ILMN -7%, NBIX -7%, GDOT -6%, SVV -6%, TKO -5%, ADPT -5%, MTD -5%, WYNN -5%, PAR -5%, FLO -4%, LMND -4% of note.
• News Items After the Close:
  • Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell:  WYNN, ILMN, U, TTD, SYNA, CPRI, WWE (CNBC)
  • Trade Desk (TTD) shares plunge about 30% on weak guidance tied to auto, Hollywood strikes. (CNBC)
  • Federal Reserve Says Banking Sector Remains Sound Overall, Most Banks Report Capital Levels Above Regulatory Requirements – Supervisory Report
  • Federal Reserve Semi-Annual Supervision Report: Flags US Office Space, Interest-Rate Risks For Banks.
  • Unity Software’s (U) stock skids 15% on revenue miss, uncertain outlook. (MarketWatch)
  • Unity (U) May Discontinue Products, Cut Staff, And Cut Office Space.
  • Assets Under Management – Month over Month:
    • VCTR $148.9 billion, APAM $132.2 billion, IVZ $1,450.5 billion – down 2.5%, AB $652 billion – down from $669, BEN $1.33 trillion down from $1.37, LAZ $220.1 billion.

• Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
  • Eagle Pharma (EGRX) to delay 10-Q filing.
  • Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) to delay 10-Q filing.
  • Hawaiian Electric (HE) files to delay its 10-Q citing potential lawsuits among other circumstances.
  • MarketAxess (MKTX) announces that Christopjer Gerosa will step down on January 31, to accept a position at a private company.
  • Organigram (OGI) Announces Interim Chief Financial Officer.
• Buyback Announcements or News: 
  • Assurant (AIZ) Board of Directors Authorizes Additional $600 Million in Share Repurchases. (see Dividends)
  • Clearfield (CLFD) has authorized an increase to the company’s common stock share repurchase program from $22 mln to $40 million.
  • Doximity’s (DOCS) board of directors authorized another program to repurchase up to $70 million of the Company’s Class A common stock.
  • Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company (HBB) Announces Stock Repurchase Program. (see Dividends)
  • Hologic (HOLX) intends to enter into an accelerated share repurchase agreement for $500 mln worth of stock.
  • NVR, Inc. (NVR) Announces Share Repurchase Authorization.
  • Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. (TCBS) Authorizes New Stock Repurchase Program.
  • Verra Mobility (VRRM) approves share repurchase program for up to $100 million of common stock.
• Stock Splits or News:
  • ADDvantage Technologies (AEY) Announces 1-for-10 Reverse Stock Split as Part of Nasdaq Compliance Plan.
  • Hycroft Mining (HYMC) Announces 1-For-10 Reverse Stock Split.
• Dividends Announcements or News: 
  • Assurant (AIZ) Board of Directors Authorizes Additional $600 Million in Share Repurchases and Approves Common Stock Dividend Increase of 3%.
  • Autoliv (ALV) raises quarterly dividend by 3% to $0.68 per share.
  • Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company (HBB) Declares Quarterly Dividend.
• Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

• Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
• Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, Utilities of note.
• One Month Winners: Utilities, Energy, Basic Materials of note.
• Three Month Winners: Energy of note.
• Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Energy of note.
• Twelve Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
• Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

The S&P 500’s shot at its longest winning streak since 2004 appeared within grasp for much of Thursday’s trading session. Then the Treasury market at 1:00 p.m. EDT with a poor auction and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at 2:00 p.m. EDT crashed the party.  Major indexes fluttered between small gains and losses in quiet trading through the early afternoon. Then turned firmly into the red after an auction of government debt showed lower-than-expected demand and propelled Treasury yields higher.  The S&P 500 finished -0.8% lower, thwarting what would have been just its 32nd nine-day winning streak since 1928.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Gap Up: DOCS +20%, VZIO +15%, NVTS +14%, BLNK +14%, OUST +13%, RPAY +11%, VOR +10%, SYNA +8%, INDI +8%, LYEL +7%, ALRM +7%, ARLO +6%, TARS +5%, LGF.A +4%, EGRX +4% of note.
• Gap Down: GRPN -32%, PLUG -29%, TWOU -27%, TTD -26%, TMCI -19%, WEST -18%, BW -15%, U -14%, VUZI -14%, ILMN -12%, MODN -12%, GDOT -8%, EVBG -7%, TKO -6%, HE -5%, ADPT -5%, NWSA -5%, WYNN -5%, VYX -5%, PAR -5%, ONTO -5%, IRDM -4%, CLNE -4% of note.

Insider Action: EPD, ALGN, MA sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  HHH, AURA, WSC sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Five Things You Need To Know Before You Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
• 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
• Bloomberg Lead Story:  World’s biggest bank, ICBC, forced to trade via USB pen drive after hack. (Bloomberg)
• Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Tainted Walmart, CVS eyedrops tied to unsanitary Indian factory. (Bloomberg)
• Stocks fall as Central Banks push hawkish message: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
• Why are oil prices falling as war wages in the Middle East? (NYT)
• Las Vegas hotel workers strike averted Wynn Resorts rounds out labor deals. (Bloomberg)
• Plug Power (PLUG) stock falls 32% in pre-market over supply challenges. (MarketWatch)
• WSJ Opinion: “Why I Won’t Be Seeking Re-Election” – Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV). (WSJ)
• NPR Morning Report Marketplace:   WeWork filed for bankruptcy, Meta’s AI plan and ad blockers get blocked. (Podcast)
• NY Times The Daily:  What Adidas knew about Kanye. (Podcast)
• BBC Global News: Four-hour pauses agreed to in Gaza. (Podcast) 
• Bloomberg: The Big Take: Consumer Brands keep getting pulled into politics. (Podcast) 

Moving Average Update:

• Score gaps down to 60% from 82%.

Geopolitical: 

M&A Activity and News: 

• Bowman (BWMN) Acquires Reno-Based Engineering Firm CFA, Inc.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: