CAPIS Morning Note – 11/10/22: Stocks Higher Into October CPI Data

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 3748.57 (lower by -2.08%) from  Tuesday at 3828.11 (higher by 0.56%).  The overnight high of 3771.50 was hit at 6:45 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3753.50 at 4:40 p.m. EDT, a range of 18 points high to low which is well below the recent range…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 3748.57 (lower by -2.08%) from  Tuesday at 3828.11 (higher by 0.56%).  The overnight high of 3771.50 was hit at 6:45 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3753.50 at 4:40 p.m. EDT, a range of 18 points high to low which is well below the recent range of 45.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was higher by 9.75 points at 3765.25 which is 0.26%.

Breaking News:

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: JXN +1.34, JAZZ +0.50, IPAR +0.31, RIVN +0.26, ZIMV +0.22, KOD +0.21, FICO +0.19, FORG +0.14, TTEC +0.12, TTEK +0.11, PRPL +0.10, GDOT +0.09, PETQ +0.09, ATO +0.08, CPNG +0.08, G +0.06, BMBL +0.06, PAAS +0.05, RNG +0.04, RPAY +0.04, ENS +0.03, STKL +0.03, MGNI +0.03, RXDX +0.01, RXT +0.01, STE +0.01, JAMF +0.01, PAY +0.01, OLO +0.01, BROS +0.01, U +0.01.
  • Flat: COOK +0.00, MQ +0.00, NVTS +0.00, VZIO +0.00, APPS +0.00, NUVA +0.00.
  • Misses: PLBY (5.53), CELH (2.57), BYND (0.45), ZIP (0.39), LNW (0.24), TTGT (0.19), WYNN (0.19), EGIO (0.14), CDE (0.10), DM (0.09), PAYO (0.06), SWCH (0.06), ACVA (0.04), MFC (0.04), RDFN (0.03), BGS (0.02), APP (0.01), KGC (0.01), VUZI (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • SportsTek Acquisition Corp. (SPTK) has extended the exclusivity period under the non-binding letter of intent with Metavisio to December 9.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes: None of note.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering:
    • HUDI: Closing of $25 Million Registered Direct Offering.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • mCloud (MCLD) Announces Upsize of Common Share Offering to $18 Million with Strategic Investors.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AXS: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • CNTX: Filed Form S-3.. $100 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • GROM: Filed Form S-1.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • HYFM: Filed Form S-3.. $100 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • OMER: Filed Form S-3.. $300 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • PX: Filed Form S-3.. $300 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • SBRA: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf.
    • XLO: Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • GE: Pricing of Offerings of $8.25 Billion Senior Notes issued by GE HealthCare.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: APPS +24%, MGNI +19%, PRPL +15%, RNG +15%, RPAY +13%, ZIP +13%, FOSL +13%, FICO +11%, PETQ +9%, ZIMV +8%, CPNG +8%, ENS +7%, JXN +7%, CELH +7%, RIVN +6%, MQ +6%, PAYO +4%.
    • Trading Down: EGIO -33%, CANO -25%, VCSA -18%, DM -17%, BMBL -15%, NLS -12%, BGS -10%, CDE -6%, U -6%, APP -6%, NUVA -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: BMBL, RIVN, BROS, FICO, ZIP, MTCH, BYND, GOEV (CNBC)
    • Tesla (TSLA) slides in after-hours trading on President Biden’s comments about looking into CEO Musk’s technical relationships with other countries. (MSNBC)
    • Rivian (RIVN) posts narrower quarterly loss than Wall Street feared, keeps production guidance intact. (MarketWatch)
    • Binance Walks Away From Deal to Rescue FTX. (WSJ)
    • Bumble (BMBL) stock tumbles 18% after holiday earnings forecast comes up short. (MarketWatch)
    • Beyond Meat (BYND) reports wider-than-expected loss, falling revenue. (CNBC)
    • President Biden:
      • Says he should decide by “early next year” on presidential run for 2024; still says he “intends’ to run.
      • Says he doesn’t think Russian President Putin will be at G-20 when he visits there next week.
    • Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari:
      • Inflation is not being driven by wages, today’s inflation is caused by supply chain challenges, stimulus, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — wages are trying to catch up to inflation, not driving it — traditional models to analyze economy are not working very well right now.
      • I wish we had started tightening sooner.
      • At December’s meeting, I don’t know what we will do – I think we are on a good path right now – monetary policy operates with a lag – want to see how the economy evolves to reduce the risk of overshooting.
    • Assets Under Management (AUM) for October:
      • AB: $627 billion, +2%
      • APAM $125.3 billion.
      • BEN $1,318.4 billion vs. $1,297.4 billion.
      • LAZ: $204.6 billion. +$8 billion from September.
      • IVZ $1,360.6 billion, an increase of 2.8%
      • VCTR reports assets under management of $154.7 billion.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Avalon GloboCare Announces NASDAQ Ticker Symbol Change from “AVCO” to “ALBT”.
    • Biogen (BIIB) appointed Christopher A. Viehbacher to serve as President and CEO.
    • Hasbro (HAS) Announces CFO Deborah Thomas Will Retire. (MarketWatch)
    • Seagen (SGEN) announces that its Board of Directors has appointed David R. Epstein as Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors.
    • Turtle Beach (HEAR) filed to delays its 10-Q.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • ADP Authorized to Purchase $5 Billion of its Common Stock.
    • GeoPark (GPRK) Renewal of Share Repurchase Program up to 10% of outstanding shares. (See Dividends)
    • Kelly Services (KELYA) approves $50 mln share repurchase plan.
      NuVasive (NUVA) approves one-year extension of share repurchase program.
    • Tuya Inc. (TUYA) Announces US$50 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • XP Inc. (XP) Announces Share Purchase Agreement With Itaúsa.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Motorsport Games (MSGM) Announces Completion of Previously Announced 1-for-10 Reverse Stock Split.
    • PSFE: Announces Planned Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Atmos Energy (ATO) increases quarterly dividend $0.06 to $0.74 per share.
    • BDX: Board Increases Dividend for 51st Consecutive Year by $0.04 to $0.91 per share.
    • B&G Foods (BGS) reduces annual dividend to $0.76/share from $1.90 per share.
    • Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY) announced dividend to increase to EUR0.70 per share.
    • GeoPark (GPRK) Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend of $0.127 Per Share.
    • Kite Realty (KRG) increases quarterly dividend $0.02 to $0.24 per share.
    • Sylvamo (SLVM) increases quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share.
    • Vinci Partners (VINP) increase quarterly dividend $0.03 to $0.20 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +7, Dow Jones +51,  NASDAQ +43, and Russell 2000 +2. (as of 8:06 a.m. EDT). Europe lower and Asia lower as well.  VIX Futures are at 26.30 from 25.05 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 25.38 from 24.35 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures are lower with Natural Gas flat. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.087% from 4.128% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $16,378 from $17,775 yesterday morning and is lower by -0.87% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Basic Materials, Communication Services, Financial, Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Energy, Industrials, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Wednesday, with the Dow logging its biggest daily drop since Oct. 7, as the major indexes saw their worst post-election day performance since 2012, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 SPX, -2.08% finished down 79.54 points, or 2.1%, at 3,748.57. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.95% closed 646.89 points, or 2%, lower at 32,513.94. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -2.48% finished down 263.02 points, or 2.5%, at 10,353.17. (MarketWatch)

 

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: SJR, TOST, FLO, DOCS, ARWR, AZTA, DUOL, AGTI, CMP, POSH, FIGS, COMP, SWIR, INDI, EXFY, VTEX, LAW, MITK, BLUE, BZH of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: AQN, ARVN of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DDS +6.09, DCBO +0.33, TDG +0.27, RBC +0.27, WIX +0.16, AZN +0.16, SHCR +0.06, NICE +0.05, YETI +0.04, PSFE +0.04, EPC +0.03, TPR +0.03, HIMX +0.03, SBH +0.02, PGTI +0.02, SSYS +0.02, EYE +0.02, AZUL +0.01, BAM +0.01, WRK +0.01, BDX +0.01.
  • Flat: GENI +0.00, WRBY +0.00, NABL +0.00, PRMW +0.00.
  • Misses: NIO (0.89), MT (0.34), WE (0.31), UTZ (0.30), SIX (0.21), SLVM (0.13), SWIM (0.08), HNST (0.05), KELYA (0.01), USFD (0.01).
  • Still to Report: CAE, DGII, RL.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: TTEK, PAYO, MQ, IPAR, BROS, FICO, AZN, YETI, PRMW, UTZ, GENI  of note.
  • Negative Guidance: EGIO, RDFN, RNG, G, ACVA, APP, BMBL, TTGT, NUVA, TTEC, BGS, COOK, APPS, RXT, DM, NVTS, RKLB, CANO, NIO, EPC, WE, BDX, TPR, HNST, NABL, SWIM, SSYS, PGTI of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: APPS +21%, PETQ +18%, MGNI +17%, PRPL +14%, RPAY +13%, RNG +13%, ZIP +12%, CPNG +11%, FICO +10%, ZIMV +9%, VUZI +9%, RCEL +8%, RIVN +7%, JXN +6%, CELH +6%, NICE +6%, FOSL +5%, CNNE +5%, APAM +4%, JAZZ +4%, WIX +4%, RXT +4%, MQ +4%, NVTS +4%, AZN +4%.
  • Gap Down: CANO -31%, VCSA -26%, TTGT -20%, EGIO -20%, DM -13%, BMBL -13%, BGS -8%, CDE -4%, NUVA -4%.

Insider Action: AUPH sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: TPR NIO WE SIX RIVN BROS AZN BMBL FICO ZIP (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Thursday. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Elon Musk’s first email to Twitter employees ends remote work. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Meta cuts 11,000 jobs, Zuck says “I got this wrong”. (Bloomberg)
  • Russian supporters are dumbfounded by another Russian surrender in Ukraine. (CNBC)
  • China warns of more layers of restrictions due to Covid, conflicting opening up country. (Reuters)
  • Chinese bank loans drop to the worst level since 2017 as the economy slows. (Bloomberg)
  • Update on all races in the House and Senate. (Bloomberg)
  • NBC predicts that GOP gets to 222 seats in the House, need 218 for control. (NBC News)
  • Hurricane Nicole, Category One, impacts Florida’s coast. (Weather Channel)
  • October CPI still likely to show inflation ran hot even as some goods cooled. (CNBC)
  • FTX hurtles towards bankruptcy with $8 billion hole, U.S. probe underway. (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score dive bombs to 11%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:30 AM
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, 12:45 p.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House, 2:40 p.m. EST
    • The President and The Vice President deliver remarks at a political event; The First Lady and The Second Gentleman attend, 3:00 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady arrive at the White House, 4:00 p.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews, 9:25 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, 9:45 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • October CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.7% from 0.4%.
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
  • EIA natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EST
  • Treasury Statement 2:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker 9:00 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Lorie Logan 9:35 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly 11:00 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 12:30 p.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Kansas City President Esther George 1:30 p.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 6:35 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Brookfield Asset Mgmt (BAM): Origin receives non-binding, indicative offer at $9.00 per share.
  • EmployBridge (IAC) Completes Acquisition of Bluecrew.
  • Canoo (GOEV) to Acquire Vehicle Manufacturing Facility in Oklahoma City.
  • OTC Markets Group (OTCM) acquires EDGAR Online from Donnelley Financial (DFIN).

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BAC Mexico Year Ahead Conference 
    • Cantor Fitzgerald’s Crypto & Disruptive Finance Conference 2022
    • Truist Securities MedTech Bus Tour 
    • UBS Toronto Chemicals Conference
  • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
    • Baird 52nd Annual Global Industrial Conference 2022 (11/08/22-11/10/22)
    • Bank of America Securities China Conference 2022 (10/31/22-11/11/22)
    • Bank of America AI/Disruptive Technology Conference 2022
    • Cowen Post-Election Forum
    • Credit Suisse 31st Annual Healthcare Conference 2022 (11/07/22-11/10/22)
    • Credit Suisse Brazilian Private Companies
    • Deutsche Bank Global Space Summit 2022 (11/09/22-11/10/22)
    • Daiwa Investment Conference 2022 (11/07/22-11/15/22)
    • JP Morgan Digital Twin Seminar Series 2022 (11/09/22-11/10/22)
    • Piper East Coast Financial Services Conference 
    • Stifel Midwest One-on-One Growth Conference 2022 (11/09/22-11/10/22)
    • Sidoti & Company LLC Micro-Cap Virtual Investor Conference 2022 (11/09/22-11/10/22)
    • Truist West Coast Bus Tour
    • UBS European Conference 2022 (11/08/22-11/10/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: