CAPIS Morning Note – 11/08/23: Stocks Did Not Rest On Seventh Day. Powell to Speak at 9:15 a.m. EST.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.28% at 4378.38 from Monday higher by 0.18% at 4365.98. The overnight high was hit at 4398.75 at 6:40 a.m. EST while the low was hit at 4387.50 at 2:20 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 11 points as of 7:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.28% at 4378.38 from Monday higher by 0.18% at 4365.98. The overnight high was hit at 4398.75 at 6:40 a.m. EST while the low was hit at 4387.50 at 2:20 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 11 points as of 7:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 25.40 from 25.80 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-October average was 22.06 from 20.96. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -1.25 points which is  -0.03% at 7:20 a.m. EST.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: TVTX +3.33, DVA +0.84, AEL +0.73, PETQ +0.40, IPAR +0.40, GILD +0.37, XNCR +0.33, OXY +0.30, INSP +0.29, AXON +0.26, BHF +0.26, PRI +0.25, OSUR +0.21, RCUS +0.19, PRIM +0.17, IOSP +0.14, AKAM +0.13, EOLS +0.12, COLL +0.11, UPWK +0.11, FNF +0.10, EXR +0.09, DDD +0.09, BBAI +0.09, ARRY +0.09, BROS +0.08, CARG +0.08, KD +0.08, LCID +0.08, HRB +0.07, CAVA +0.07, JKHY +0.07, ENVX +0.06, SHLS +0.05, PGNY +0.05, BMBL +0.05, MASI +0.04, ODD +0.04, PWSC +0.04, GO +0.04, EBAY +0.03, MNKD +0.03, INTA +0.03, LZ +0.03, GMED +0.03, GXO +0.03, STE +0.03, AMPL +0.02, GPRO +0.02, ANGI +0.02, ATEN +0.02, HOOD +0.01, METC +0.01, RXT +0.01, VTEX +0.01, CRCT +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: MQ +0.00, CTOS +0.00, AGTI +0.00, CRSR +0.00, SNCY +0.00, PR +0.00, JHX +0.00, USPH +0.00, NHI +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: IAC (4.07), INGN (1.48), KVYO (1.29), IRBT (1.15), CIVI (1.02), ANDE (0.49), DVN (0.49), VTRS (0.47), MRCY (0.42), VCYT (0.26), SNBR (0.26), EXFY (0.23), TOST (0.13), RIVN (0.10), COTY (0.08), MOS (0.07), LPRO (0.05), XPOF (0.05), PAAS (0.05), DAR (0.04), WTI (0.04), MRC (0.04), CBAY (0.03), UPST (0.03), DOOR (0.02), CPNG (0.02), FLYW (0.02), MRVI (0.02), NVEI (0.02), IOVA (0.01), POWI (0.01) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Globavend Holdings Limited (GVH) Pricing of Initial Public Offering.. 1,500,000 ordinary shares at a price of $4.00.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Inception Growth Acquisition Limited (IGTA) Announces Additional Contribution to Trust Account to Extend Business Combination Period.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • CLDX Prices offering of 7.425 million shares of common stock at $27.00 per share.
    • IDA: Prices offering 2,801,724 shares of its common stock at $92.80 per share.
    • KNF: Prices secondary offering of 5,142,383 shares of its common stock currently owned by MDU Resources (MDU) at $54.00 per share.
    • SRE: Prices offering of 17,142,858 shares of its common stock at $70.00 per share
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • OUT: Announces Pricing of Senior Secured Notes Offering.
    • ARES: Prices Offering of Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ADTX: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 264,516 shares of Common Stock.
    • CLDX: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Jefferies and Leerink Bookmanagers)
    • HNRA: Filed Form S-1.. 1,320,625 Shares of Common Stock.
    • IDA: Public Offering of $260 Million of Shares of Common Stock. (WFC and MS Bookmanager)
    • LCID: Filed Form S-3.. 265,693,703 Shares Common Stock common stock by selling shareholder.
    • LQR: Filed Form S-1.. 86,682,427 shares of Common Stock.
    • SPR: Proposed Public Offering of Class A Common Stock.. $200 million of its Class A common stock. (MS, GS and JPM Bookmanager)
    • SRE: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock – $1,000,000,000 of shares. (MS and Citi bookmanager)
    • STKH: Filed Form F-1.. 6,000,000 American Depositary Shares, each representing ten (10) Ordinary Shares.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ARVN: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • BRP: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • INZY: Filed Form S-3.. $300 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • OCUL: Filed Form S-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • PZG: Filed Form S-3.. $25,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • WAB: Filed Form S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • SPR: Proposed Private Offering of Exchangeable Senior Notes.
  • Tender Offer:
    • COTY: Announces Cash Tender Offers for Up to $400 Million Outstanding Debt Securities.
    • ICPT: Alfasigma S.p.A. successfully completes tender offer for all outstanding shares of common stock of Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • XFLT: Announces Private Placement of Convertible Preferred Shares.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up:  UPWK +18%, EOLS +14%, PETQ +14%, KD +12%, ENVX +11%, LZ +10%, ODD +9%, KRMD +9, MQ +9%, PWSC +8%, MNKD +7%, PRIM +7%, METC +7%, GPRO +6%, AMR +6%, AGTI +6%, MRC +5%, BBAI +5%, DVA +5%, ANGI +5%, ZLAB +5%, ATEN +4%, BALY +4%, VCYT +4%, GMED +4%, AKAM +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: NRDY -35%, ESTA -28%, SNBR -27%, EXFY -23%, UPST -22%, LPRO -2%, INSP -18%, TOST -17%, SPR -15%, ARRY -13%, POWI -13%, FLYW -13%, CTKB -13%, ANDE -10%, HOOD -9%, MRVI -9%, BMBL -7%, AMRK -6%, EBAY -6%, KVYO -6%, OSUR -6%, CPNG -5%,  INZY -5%, MRCY -5%, KIND -4%, DAR -4%, IDA -4%, LCID -4%, SHLS -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: EBAY, EXR, AKAM, HOOD, OXY, DVN, DVA, TOST, SRE  (CNBC)
    • Airbnb (ABNB) -Backed Real Estate Startup Zeus Living to Shut Down. (TheInformation)
    • Amazon (AMZN) Developing ‘Olympus’ AI to Narrow Gap with Microsoft (MSFT), OpenAI. (TheInformation)
    • Robinhood (HOOD) Shares Fall on Revenue Miss After Crypto Volumes Tumble. (Bloomberg)
    • Goldman (GS) Moves to Offload GM Credit Card. (WSJ)
    • Adobe Analytics Report: UK Online Sales To Grow 2.7% In Christmas Trading Season. (MS)
    • Virgin Galactic (SPCE) Provides Business Update.. notified all employees today, Tuesday, November 7 of a strategic realignment of the Company’s resources and a related workforce reduction to support the production of its Delta Class spaceships.
    • Nextdoor (KIND) announces a cost reduction plan; to lay off ~25% of the Company’s full-time employees.
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded $504 million U.S. Army contract modification.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Index Changes: Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) Set to Join S&P SmallCap 600
    • Adient (ADNT) President and CEO Doug Del Grosso announces retirement; CFO Jerome Dorlack to be appointed leader of seating supplier.
    • ADXN regains Nasdaq listing compliance.
    • Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY) announced Chief Financial Officer transition.
    • CarGurus (CARG) Board authorized $250.0 million share repurchase program commencing in 2024.
    • CPSI Appoints Vinay Bassi as New Chief Financial Officer
    • Greenlight Capital Re (GLRE) CEO Simon Burton to depart.
    • Heliogen (HLGN) Announces Suspension of NYSE Listing Status.
    • IEH Corp. (IEHC) Announces Appointment of Subrata Purkayastha as Chief Financial Officer.
    • Lucid (LCID) Welcomes Marc Winterhoff as Chief Operating Officer.
    • Nicolet Bankshares (NIC) announces election of CEO Mike Daniels as Chairman, effective Jan 1 when Atwell will step down as Executive Chairman but will remain as a current director.
    • PGT Inc. (PGTI) announces the appointment of Craig Henderson as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
    • Sleep Number (SNBR) has appointed Stephen E. Macadam and Hilary A. Schneider to its Board of Directors.
    • The J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) Announces Formation of New Strategic Business Area and Changes to its Leadership Team.
    • WeWork (WE) will delist from the NYSE effective at tomorrows open.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • A10 Networks (ATEN) authorized a new buyback up to $50 million.
    • Assured Guaranty (AGO) increases share repurchase authorization by $300 million.
    • B. Riley’s (RILY) Board of Directors has approved an annual share repurchase plan authorizing the repurchase of up to $50 million of its common shares.
    • Bumble Inc. (BMBL) announced today an increase in the share repurchase program authorized amount from $150.0 million to $300.0 million.
    • CEVA, Inc. (CEVA) Announces Expansion of Existing Share Repurchase Program.
    • Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) Board of Directors Authorized $25.0 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase Program.
    • F&G Annuities & Life (FG) Expands Share Repurchase Authorization by $25 Million. (see Dividends)
    • NACCO Industries, Inc. (NC) approves common stock share repurchase program for up to $20 million.
    • CLEAR (YOU) Announces an Increase to its Share Repurchase Authorization. (see Dividends)
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Civitas Resources (CIVI) board of directors approved a dividend of $1.59 per share
    • F&G Annuities & Life (FG) increases quarterly cash dividend 5% to $0.21 per share from $0.20 per share.
    • Fidelity National (FNF) raises dividend by 7% to $0.48 per share from $0.45 prior.
    • Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD) Announces Quarterly Dividend of $0.45 Per Share.
    • HP Inc. (HPQ) increases quarterly cash dividend ~5% to $0.2756 per share from $0.2625 per share.
    • Innospec (IOSP) declares H2 dividend of $0.72, representing a 10% yr/yr increase to the annualized dividend.
    • National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) Announces 3.8% Increase to Quarterly Dividend.
    • New Fortress Energy (NFE) Board of Directors approved a dividend of $0.10 per share.
    • Power Integrations (POWI) Raises quarterly dividend by 5% to $0.20 per share.
    • CLEAR (YOU) Announces Increased Quarterly Dividend, Special Dividend.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +3, Dow Jones +35,  NASDAQ +14, and Russell 2000 +1.  (as of 8:01 a.m. EST).  Asia is lower ex ASX 200 while Europe is lower ex the CAC this morning. VIX Futures are at 16.20 from 15.80 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper are lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.587% from 4.614% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $35,355 from $34,707 yesterday, lower by -0.77% this morning however.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Consumer Cyclical  of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Basic Materials, Real Estate, Utilities of note.
  • One Month Winners: Utilities, Energy, Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Wall Street’s winning streak continued Tuesday, with shares of technology firms and companies that depend on discretionary consumer spending lifting major stock indexes. The Nasdaq Composite led the way, climbing 0.9%, in its eighth straight daily gain and its longest streak in two years. The tech-heavy index is now up 30% on the year. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average extended their runs of consecutive daily gains to seven. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to bring its year-to-date climb to 14%. The Dow Jones added 0.2%, or about 57 points, to nudge its 2023 gain to 3%. Treasurys also continued to rally. The yield on 10-year notes fell to 4.57%, down from 4.662% Monday and 5% last month. Yields fall as prices rise. Year to date TLT is down -11.55% and looks to put in its third losing year in a row.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

 

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close:

  • Thursday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: SPHR +3.54, BEKE +1.02, ANIP +0.43, IBP +0.40, BIIB +0.39, CRL +0.36, ODP +0.31, TRP +0.29, EVRI +0.20, RL +0.17, CCO +0.13, BEAM +0.11, EVGO +0.11, NFE +0.11, JHX +0.10, YOU +0.09, NYT +0.08, LITE +0.08, MCFT +0.07, AVDX +0.06, SFL +0.05, DDD +0.05, DIBS +0.05, TBLA +0.05, TPB +0.05, PFGC +0.05, BIGC +0.04, RBLX +0.04, VCEL +0.04, UAA +0.04, SEAS +0.02, SHOO +0.02, MIDD +0.01, FOLD +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: STWD +0.00, TH +0.00, REYN +0.00, PAYO +0.00, WRBY +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: EDR (0.46), GTN (0.26), DOX (0.17), XPEL (0.13), FOUR (0.12), LFST (0.10), PLTK (0.09), ADNT (0.08), WBD (0.06), SPTN (0.05), STER (0.04), HLMN (0.02), HLLY (0.02), TEVA (0.01), KRNT (0.01), CEVA (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: GIB, K, VSH, WOW, KLG of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: DHI, AKAM, LZ, GILD, CARG, FLYW, COLL, UPWK, PETQ, INTA, AMPL, KVYO, GMET, VCYT, XPOF, EXR, IPAR, ENVX, JKHY, PWSC, ODD, YOU, WRBY, AVDX, EVGO, ANIP of note.
  • Negative Guidance: GEN, POWI, EBAY, GO, MASI, MRVI, SHLS, GPRO, BMBL, LPRO, UPST, VTRS, ARRY, DVA, NRDY, BEKE, GTN, PLTK, PFGC, KRNT, BIIB, DIBS, STER, MGIC of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: UPWK 21%, ENVX 15%, PETQ 14%, EOLS 13%, LZ 12%, MQ 12%, KD 11%, PWSC 11%, JHX 9%, ODD 8%, MNKD 7%, FNA 7%, PRIM 7%, RIVN 7%, DVA 7%, AGTI 6%, AMR 6%, BALY 6%, AJG 6%, IPAR 6%, BBAI 6%, CARG 5%, BEKE 5%, YOU 5%, EVRI 5%, AKAM 5%, AGO 4%, VCYT 4%, PGNY 4%, AXON 4%, GMED 4% of note.
  • Gap Down: SNBR -33%, NRDY -26%, ESTA -25%, UPST -23%, EXFY -21%, TOST -19%, FLYW -17%, LPRO -17%, SPR -15%, INSP -14%, ARRY -12%, POWI -12%, MASI -11%, CTKB -11%, AMRK -9%, RXT -9%, GO -9%, HOOD -8%, BMBL -7%, EBAY -7%, CPNG -6%, KVYO -6%, OSUR -6%, MRVI -6%, ANDE -6%, MRCY -6%, OCUL -5%, INZY -5%, CLDX -4%, LCID -4%, IDA -4%, PAAS -4% of note.

Insider Action: BALY sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things You Need To Know Before You Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Israel Latest: Army “Expanding” ground activity in Gaza. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story:  Rockstar plans to introduce “Grand Theft Auto VI” (Bloomberg)
  • Stock rebound wanes with S&P 500 around key levels: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Biden and Xi to meet on Xi’s trip to West Coast. (Bloomberg)
  • Democrats win State Elections in boost for abortion rights. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks tread water with Chairman Powell about to speak. (Yahoo Finance)
  • Mortgage rates plunge and demand inches back. (CNBC)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace:  How California hopes to mitigate future wildfires. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily:  The Trumps take the stand. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: Israel says its troops “in the heart of Gaza city”. (Podcast) 
  • Bloomberg: Unpacking Cathie Wood’s faith in Bitcoin. (Podcast) 
  • Wealthion: The storm brewing in the housing market. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 88%….day 2.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby, 1:00 p.m. EST

Economic:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
    • MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: +2.5%, Purchase: +3%, ReFi: +1.6%
    • US MBA Mortgage Applications Nov 3: 2.5% (prev -2.1%) – 30 Year MBA Mortgage Rate Nov 3: 7.61% (prev 7.86%)
  • Wholesale Inventories 10:00 a.m. EST
  • EIA Petroleum Report (Delay)10:30 a.m. EST
  • 1 YR Note Auction 1:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Lisa D. Cook 5:15 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell 9:15 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 1:40 p.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 2:00 p.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Philip N. Jefferson 4:45 p.m. EST

M&A Activity and News: 

  • Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Signs Agreement to Acquire The Evans Agency, LLC.
  • BigBear.ai (BBAI) announces definitive merger agreement to acquire Pangiam for ~$70 mln on a cash-free, debt-free basis in an all-stock transaction

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BMO Biopharma Spotlight Series: Oncology
    • Truist Securities BioPharma Symposium
    • UBS BioPharma Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Baird Global Industrial Conference
        • Wolfe Research Wealth Symposium
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: ADP, AMC, AMCR, ETX, LANC, SCX
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: EVAX, JAGX, MRNA, ROK, RWLK, SIRI, SYK, UPS, VEEV
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings: None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • BIO-Europe
        • Gartner IT Symposium
        • Red Cloud Fall Mining Showcase
        • Rockwell Automation Fair
        • Smart City Expo World Congress
        • Trimble Dimensions Conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: