CAPIS Morning Note – 11/04/22: Jobs Friday. Will It Come In Hot? Futures Say Slow Jobs Growth.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 3719.89 (lower by -1.06%) from Wednesday at 3759.69 (lower by -2.50%).  The overnight high of 3761 was hit at 6:55 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3715.75 at 6:25 p.m. EDT, a range of 46 points high to low which is just above the recent range…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 3719.89 (lower by -1.06%) from Wednesday at 3759.69 (lower by -2.50%).  The overnight high of 3761 was hit at 6:55 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3715.75 at 6:25 p.m. EDT, a range of 46 points high to low which is just above the recent range of 45.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was higher by 30.25 points at 3758 which is +0.81%. 

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: PBA +2.62, RGA +2.20, VIR +1.61, MED +1.41, COLL +1.24, HRT +0.93, MTD +0.35, PCTY +0.34, LYV +0.34, PODD +0.31, KWR +0.29, AMGN +0.25, SYNA +0.22, EXAS +0.21, SQ +0.19, PRAA +0.17, ED +0.17, AMN +0.17, ICFI +0.16, LOCO +0.16, SPXC +0.15, NKTR +0.13, ATGE +0.13, PYPL +0.12, OLED +0.12, MSI +0.12, SWKS +0.12, BL +0.12, SDGR +0.11, CTVA +0.10, PGNY +0.10, SBUX +0.09, UPLD +0.09, CDNA +0.08, BILL +0.08, TWLO +0.08, BOOM +0.08, MELI +0.07, MTZ +0.06, FRT +0.06, BIGC +0.06, NET +0.06, CRSR +0.06, COLD +0.06, CHUY +0.06, MP +0.06, REG +0.05, AL +0.05, FOXF +0.05, SM +0.05, ADPT +0.05, CGNX +0.05, STEP +0.05, DBX +0.05, FND +0.05, ILMN +0.04, LPRO +0.04, MDRX +0.04, PECO +0.04, ATSG +0.03, GDDY +0.03, CTRA +0.03, SXI +0.03, QNST +0.03, LGF.A +0.03, GDYN +0.03, GPRO +0.03, OEC +0.03, LUNG +0.02, DRH +0.02, DXC +0.02, MCHP +0.02, AEE +0.02, KTOS +0.02, SPT +0.02, SGMO +0.02, FATE +0.01, IOVA +0.01, CDXS +0.01, MODG +0.01, CORT +0.01, DH +0.01.
  • Flat: CUTR +0.00, CYRX +0.00, PEN +0.00, MNTV +0.00, VIAV +0.00, AMH +0.00, NVST +0.00, DEI +0.00, MNST +0.00, MNRL +0.00, VTR +0.00, OTEX +0.00.
  • Misses: WW (3.32), CABO (1.08), COIN (0.96), OPEN (0.94), LPI (0.91), WBD (0.90), CODI (0.71), CVNA (0.70), ALTR (0.43), USM (0.40), CYTK (0.34), TMST (0.34), TMDX (0.25), SEM (0.24), MAXR (0.24), FNKO (0.22), APPN (0.20), ALKT (0.15), SPCE (0.14), DASH (0.12), BECN (0.12), CWK (0.11), BE (0.11), TPIC (0.11), RCKT (0.10), FRG (0.10), GH (0.10), EXPE (0.08), HMN (0.06), RKT (0.05), DNLI (0.05), NFG (0.04), STEM (0.04), YELP (0.04), TRUP (0.04), RMAX (0.04), CE (0.03), LASR (0.03), OUT (0.03), AVB (0.03), TEAM (0.02), EOG (0.02), PLYA (0.02), WPM (0.01), AOSL (0.01), NDLS (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • KRP: Announces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering of Common Units.
    • VICI: prices stock offering at implied $30.90.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BIOX: Filed Form F-3.. 4,755,684 ordinary shares.
    • CDXC: Filed Form S-3.. 2,480,000 Shares Common Stock.
    • KRP: Commences 5 million common stock offering.
    • NLY: Filed Form 424B5.. $1,500,000,000 Common Stock.
    • VICI: Public Offering of Common Stock 16.5 million shares. BAC and Citi bookmanagers
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • MGY: Proposes 7.5 million common stock offering by selling stockholders.
    • NKLA: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 43,229,689 Shares by selling stockholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • VRAX: Announces $3.8 Million Private Placement.
    • PKBO: Announces Closing of up to $100 Million Common Stock Purchase Transaction with White Lion Capital.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • GSAT: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • GWH: Filed Form S-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • IGMS: Filed Form S-3..$400,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • LUNG: Filed Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • WLK: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • INKT: Filed Form S-3.. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • PI: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: CUTR 23%, TMDX 20%, SQ 14%, PODD 10%, DASH 10%, VIR 10%, MCHP 9%, OLED 9%, IHRT 7%, BE 7%, EXAS 7%, PGNY 7%, MNST 5%, UPLD 5%, COLD 5%, CGNX 5%, ALHC 5%, STEM 4%, CDXS 4%, MELI 4%, MP 4%, RKLB 4%, COIN 4%.
    • Trading Down: FNKO -23%, SEM -22%, TEAM -22%, TWLO -18%, CYRX -18%, APLS -17%, VIAV -14%, NET -14%, DH -13%, APPN -13%, TRUP -11%, CDNA -11%, CVNA -10%, FRG -10%, HRT -10%, USM -9%, PYPL -9%, GSAT -9%, YELP -8%, KTOS -7%, MED -7%, CE -7%, RKT -7%, BIGC -6%, LASR -6%, GWH -5%, GDDY -5%, ADPT -5%, ILMN -5%, PEN -5%, ISEE -5%, TMST -4%, KRP -4%, LUNG -4%, LUNG -4%, WBD -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: SQ, PYPL, CVNA, TWLO, DASH, COIN, SBUX, EXPE, WBD (CNBC)
    • Carvana (CVNA) stock drops more than 7% after company’s wider Q3 loss. (MarketWatch)
    • Twilio (TWLO) tumbles after issuing a soft quarterly revenue projection. (CNBC)
    • Atlassian (TEAM) also tumbles more than 20% on earnings miss and weak forecast. (CNBC)
    • Block (SQ) stock rockets higher after earnings as Square parent posts a ‘strong beat all around’. (MarketWatch)
    • DoorDash (DASH) orders hit all-time records as growth continues; stock shoots higher. (MarketWatch)
    • AAPL: Pauses Hiring for Roles outside Research and Development Apple Pause Affects Corporate Functions and Some Engineering Apple Is Taking ‘Deliberate Approach’ to Some Parts of Business. (Bloomberg)
    • Coinbase (COIN) reports plunge in revenue and swings to a loss as investors exit crypto. (CNBC)
    • FXI: Tiger Global Halts New Chinese Equities Investments, Sources Say.  Tiger Global Seeks More Clarity Before Investing More in Chinese Equities, Sources Say. (WSJ)
    • ARKK: Cathie Wood fund hawking overpriced Twitter shares to retail investors. (NYPost)
    • The Estée Lauder Cos. (EL) Is Still in Running for Tom Ford. (WWD)
    • Japan And China Are Arranging A Meeting Between Japan’s Pm Kishida And China’s President Xi In Mid-Nov. – (Sankei)
    • Caterpillar (CAT) awarded a maximum $1.28 bln 5-year U.S. Defense Logistics Agency contract.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • AnPac Bio (ANPC) Granted Continued Listing by NASDAQ Hearing Panel, Subject to Meeting $1 Bid Price Compliance Rule On or Before Nov. 23, 2022.
    • Auddia Inc. (AUUD) Announces Departure of Chief Financial Officer.
    • Borqs Technologies (BRQS) Receives Nasdaq Deficiency Notification.
    • Dominion Energy (D) Promotes Ridge to Chief Financial Officer, Announces Departure Of Current CFO Chapman.
    • Definitive Healthcare (DH) announces Jon Maack has joined the company as President.
    • Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) Announces Further Adjournment of its Special Meeting of Stockholders.
    • IMTE Receives Nasdaq Notice Regarding Minimum Bid Requirements.
    • James Hardie (JHX) appoints Anne Lloyd as Chairperson.
    • Jabil (JBL) announces CEO succession; Kenny Wilson to become CEO.
    • Kuke Music (KUKE) Announces Receipt of Non-compliance Letter Regarding ADS Trading Price from NYSE.
    • StoneCo (STNE) Announces Transition in Leadership Roles – Thiago Piau to become Board Member and Pedro Zinner to become CEO.
    • Teva Pharma (TEVA) ticks lower on report co is looking for a new CEO Kare Schultz confirmed he will step down when his contract expires next year. (WSJ)
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Huntsman (HUN) Repurchased over $750 million of Shares in First Nine Months of 2022.
    • Monster Beverage (MNST) Board authorizes new $500.0 million share repurchase program.
    • Orion Engineered Carbons (OEC) has approved a share repurchase program with authorization to purchase up to $50 mln of its outstanding common stock.
    • Rocket Companies (RKT) approved renewal and extension of the $1 billion share repurchase program.
    • Select Medical (SEM) authorizes a stock repurchase program to repurchase up to $1 billion worth of shares of its common stock.
    • Universal Corp (UVV) has approved a program for the repurchase of up to $100 million of Universal Corporation shares of common stock.
    • YELP authorizes $250 million increase to stock repurchase program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • DBGI trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Air Lease (AL) increases quarterly dividend 8.1% to $0.20 per share.
    • Albertsons Companies (ACI) Issues Statement Regarding the Temporary Restraint of its Special Dividend Payment as a Result of Washington State Court’s Temporary Restraining Order.
    • Cognex (CGNX) increases quarterly dividend by 8% to $0.07 per share.
    • Coterra Energy (CTRA) Board of Directors (the “Board”) approved a total quarterly dividend equal to $0.68 per share.
    • Enerplus (ERF) to increase quarterly dividend by 10% to US$0.055 per share.
    • Evergy (EVRG) Increases quarterly dividend 7%, to $0.6125 per share, annualized to $2.45.
    • Fidelity National (FNF) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.45 per share, a $0.01 boost.
    • John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) Declares $1.00 Per Share Special Dividend.
    • Microchip (MCHP) announced increase of dividend to $0.328 from $0.301 per share.
    • Southside Banc (SBSI) declares a special cash dividend of $0.04 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +29, Dow Jones +193,  NASDAQ +87, and Russell 2000 +13. (as of 8:08 a.m. EDT). Europe higher and Asia higher ex Japan.  VIX Futures are at 25.90 from 25.86 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 25.30 from 25.81 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher with Natural Gas higher as well. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and  lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.165% from 4.191% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $20,632 from $20,250  yesterday morning and is higher by 1.91% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Technology, Financial of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Energy, Industrials, Financials of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stocks finished lower on Thursday for the fourth session in a row as all three major indexes logged their longest losing streak in at least two weeks, according to FactSet data. The S&P 500 SPX, -1.06% closed down 39.80 points, or 1.1%, to 3,719.89, notching its longest losing streak since Oct. 12 and its lowest closing level since Oct. 20. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.73% finished 181.86 points, or 1.7%, lower at 10,342.94, and also cemented its longest stretch of losses since Oct. 12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.46% closed 146.51 points, or 0.5%, lower at 32,001.25, tying a four-day losing streak that ended Oct. 10. (MarketWatch)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: BNTX, FNV, PLTR, DINO, VTRS, WTRG, NI, NRG, RBA, CHH, CRSP, HAE, WHD, BEAM, THS, FOUR, HEP, DK, HLIO, BLDP, WTI, RDNT, RETA, AMRS of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: EVRG +0.12, WPC +0.10, AES +0.10, CBOE +0.09, LAMR +0.09, HSY +0.07, TILE +0.04, ENB +0.04, AXL +0.03, D +0.03, BEP +0.02, KOP +0.02, TU +0.01, ADNT +0.01, MBUU +0.01.
  • Flat: CCCS +0.00, EAF +0.00, PRLB +0.00, HUN +0.00, GTES +0.00.
  • Misses: FLR (0.35), GTN (0.31), QRTEA (0.15), SYNH (0.09), MOG.A (0.09), DUK (0.07), IMGN (0.06), CNK (0.06), MGA (0.05), AMRX (0.04), PPL (0.01).
  • Still to Report: ABR, DBRG, DKNG, FUBO.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: KTB, JCI, DDOG, SRE, LNTH, ESMT, ESAB, MGPI, MTSI, NVMI, LAUR, FTDR, ARW, PNW, CUTR, SPXC, COLD, NET, PODD, MODG, CGNX, BILL, PCTY, EXAS, AMN, PECO, REG, FRT, TMDX, CVT, SBUX, PNM, HSY, DKNG, WPC, FLR of note.
  • Negative Guidance: TREE, FIS, PTON, LSPD, ZTS, FOCS, DSEY, CARS, SPNS, RCL, ITRI, CRSR, CDNA, WW, SWKS, TEAM, GDDY, TWLO, ILMN, YELP, PEN, PYPL, FRG, GH, MNTV, APPN, DXC, CE, SYNA, PGNY, SPT, MTD, VIAV, AVB, OPEN, DH, AOSL, FNKO, RMAX, OEC, KTOS, BIGC, CYRX, HMN, NFG, GPRO, LASR, MED, LUNG, GDYN, IHRT, TILE, SYNH, GTN, TU, DUK, D, ADNT of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: TMDX 20%, XPEV 20%, SQ 15%, PODD 13%, DASH 12%, CUTR 12%, VIR 10%, MCHP 10%, COIN 8%, OLED 8%, UPLD 8%, ACI 8%, BE 7%, PGNY 7%, EXAS 7%, DXC 6%, MELI 6%, RKLB 6%, STEM 5%, PBA 5%, NVST 5%, CVT 5%, IOVA 5%, MP 5%, CGNX 5%, CYTK 4%, MTZ 4%, MNTV 4%.
  • Gap Down: FNKO -36%, TEAM -27%, TWLO -24%, CYRX -23%, SEM -17%, VIAV -17%, APLS -17%, APPN -15%, DH -13%, KTOS -13%, TRUP -11%, NET -11%, BIGC -10%, FRG -10%, USM -9%, KRP -8%, CDNA -8%, PYPL -7%, LUNG -7%, CVNA -7%, LASR -7%, OTEX -6%, CABO -6%, HRT -6%, GSAT -6%, TPIC -6%, YELP -5%, CE -5%, NGM -5%, CWK -5%, MNRL -5%, ADPT -5%, TMST -5%, RMAX -5%, OUT -5%, GPRO -5%, PEN -5%, SYNH -4%, CORT -4%, RKT -4%, WBD -4%, FND -4%.

Insider Action: LYB sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: DKNG, CNK, HSY, SBUX, DASH, TWLO, EXPE, PYPL, COIN, SQ, WBD, CVNA (CNBC)
  • Five Things to Know This Morning. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Is The Worst Over in China as Stocks Rebound. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Twitter Sued For Mass Layoffs By Elon Musk. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia called up 318,000 troops. (Interfax)
  • Stocks Rise Ahead of Jobs Report. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score drops to 17% from 25%.  Fine – I will bust out the quote. “Scotty……I need more power!”

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President delivers remarks at an American technology company that will benefit from passage of the President’s CHIPS and Science Act and more chips being made in America, 2:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs San Diego, California en route Chicago, Illinois, 4:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Chicago, Illinois, 8:05 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a political reception, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • October Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 220,000 from 263,000. The unemployment rate is expected to climb to 3.6% from 3.5%.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Bill.com (BILL) has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Finmark.
  • CyberOptics Corporation (CYBE) Acquired by Nordson Corporation.
  • Kaixin Auto Holdings (KXIN) Announces Acquisition SPA with Morning Star.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Bank of America Securities China Conference 2022 (10/31/22-11/11/22)
        • Goldman Sachs China Conference 2022 (10/31/22-11/04/22)
  • Company Meetings: HRB
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: (See Company Events)
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day:
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Association for the Study of Liver Disease AASLD Annual Meeting – The Liver Meeting 2022 (11/04/22-11/08/22)
    • Duke Cancer Institute’s Immuno-Oncology Research Program Retreat 2022
    • American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 9th Forensic Engineering Congress 2022 (11/04/22-11/07/22)
    • American Heart Association (AHA) Scientific Sessions 2022 (11/04/22-11/07/22)
    • National Association for Business Economics (NABE) 6th Annual Conference TEC2022 (11/06/22-11/08/22)
    • Recent Advances in Fermentation Technology (RAFT14) (11/06/22-11/09/22)
        • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
          • American Society of Nephrology ASN Annual Meeting – Kidney Week 2022 (11/03/22-11/06/22)
          • BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference 2022 (11/03/22-11/04/22)
          • Innovations in Dermatology Conference 2022 (11/03/22-11/05/22)
          • 33rd International Symposium on the Autonomic Nervous System 2022 (11/02/22-11/05/22)
          • Bio-EuropeConference (11/02/22-11/04/22)
          • Festival ofBiologics2022 (11/02/22-11/04/22)
          • The Retina Society Annual Scientific Meeting (11/02/22-11/05/22)
          • Association of Molecular Pathology 2022 (AMP) (11/01/22-11/05/22)
          • ObesityWeek 2022 40th Annual Scientific Meeting of the Obesity Society (11/01/22-11/04/22)
          • International Congress for Ataxia Research (ICAR) 2022 (11/01/22-11/04/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: