CAPIS Morning Note – 11/03/23: Jobs Friday: Can S&P 500 Rally For a Fifth Day In a Row?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 1.89% at 4317.78 from Wednesday higher by 1.05% back above 4200 at 4237.86. The overnight high was hit at 4334.375 at 11:25 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4326 at 5:15 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 8 points as of 7:30 a.m. EDT. The…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 1.89% at 4317.78 from Wednesday higher by 1.05% back above 4200 at 4237.86. The overnight high was hit at 4334.375 at 11:25 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4326 at 5:15 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 8 points as of 7:30 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 29.20 from 30.50 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-September average was 20.96 from 21.10 in May through August and the September average was 19.87. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by  -7.25 points which is  -0.17% at 7:30 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: BKNG +4.54, RGA +1.28, PRTA +0.70, COIN +0.54, LYV +0.52, EOG +0.47, YELP +0.45, EXPE +0.41, WW +0.41, QLYS +0.37, MERC +0.37, AMN +0.34, MODV +0.33, PODD +0.31, RLAY +0.28, PCTY +0.27, CRUS +0.26, PEN +0.22, HURN +0.22, TRUP +0.21, EVH +0.20, PARA +0.19, ICFI +0.19, PRDO +0.17, LOPE +0.17, MSI +0.16, BL +0.16, GDDY +0.16, ALLO +0.15, CODI +0.15, KWR +0.15, LNT +0.12, TEAM +0.12, SM +0.12, OTEX +0.11, SWKS +0.10, SPXC +0.09, FIVN +0.09, SBAC +0.09, SQ +0.08, CHUY +0.08, DOCN +0.08, FNKO +0.08, DKNG +0.08, AAPL +0.07, DBX +0.07, OLED +0.07, UDMY +0.07, PBA +0.07, SNDX +0.06, APPN +0.06, NET +0.06, RDFN +0.06, AES +0.06, CPK +0.06, ACAD +0.05, FTNT +0.05, FND +0.05, BILL +0.04, RMAX +0.04, SXI +0.04, OPEN +0.04, VIAV +0.04, MP +0.04, SPT +0.04, DH +0.04, BOOT +0.03, HTGC +0.03, HMN +0.03, TSLX +0.03, BAND +0.03, HCAT +0.03, KTOS +0.03, SWN +0.03, COHU +0.03, KN +0.03, MNST +0.03, OEC +0.03, FRT +0.03, SYK +0.03, ACHC +0.02, ABCL +0.02, ED +0.01, CUBE +0.01, RYAN +0.01, SG +0.01, VTR +0.01, FIGS +0.01, MCW +0.01, ACCO +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: AMH +0.00, COLD +0.00, LOCO +0.00, GDYN +0.00, MCHP +0.00, REG +0.00, RPT +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: BECN (6.79), CABO (5.20), CYTK (0.61), VTLE (0.34), TXG (0.33), OUT (0.33), STEM (0.32), HLIO (0.26), MC (0.18), PXD (0.17), IRTC (0.16), RARE (0.15), ALTR (0.09), IAS (0.09), OHI (0.06), FOXF (0.05), BOOM (0.04), EXPI (0.03), SEM (0.03), LASR (0.02), TMST (0.01), VIR (0.01), PLYA (0.01) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Lexeo Therapeutics (LXEO) 9.1 million shares IPO priced at $11 per share.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Abri SPAC I, Inc. (ASPA) Announces Completion of Business Combination Shares will begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Market under the ticker “CAUD” on November 3, 2023.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • ABL: Prices Public Offering of $31.0 Million 9.875% Notes Due 2028.
    • HUM: Prices $1.35 Billion Debt Offering.
    • LXP: Announces Pricing of Public Offering of $300 Million of Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ALLO: Filed Form 424B5.. Up to $250,000,000 Common Stock.
    • EVR: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Class A Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • BBIO: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 9,167,723 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
    • TPG: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 225,355,652 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • VVOS: Closes $4 Million Private Placement.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ALLR: Filed Form S-3.. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • CERS: Filed Form S-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • KURA: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
    • MU: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • MUR: Announces Cash Tender Offers for Outstanding Debt Securities.
    • PARA: Announces Cash Tender Offers for Up to $1 Billion Combined Aggregate Purchase Price of Certain Outstanding Debt Securities.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: DOCN 18%, SQ 16%, IAS 14%, FNKO 14%, UDMY 14%, DH 12%, SPT 12%, PODD 10%, TRUP 10%, FIGS 10%, EVH 8%, ALHC 8%, EXPE 8%, DKNG 7%, BL 6%, DVAX 6%, ACAD 5%, HASI 5%, FIVN 5%, PARA 5%, YELP 5%, CLDX 4%, ENV 4%, PLL 4%, MNST 4% of note.
    • Trading Down: FTNT -17%, BOOM -15%, FND -15%, FOXF -15%, AGL -13%, ABCL -11%, PCTY -11%, TEAM -10%, OPEN -9%, OUT -9%, WW -9%, HLIO -8%, TXG -7%, ACCO -6%, BOOT -6%, PEN -6%, SWKS -6%, STEM -5%, BAP -5%, NET -5%, BECN -5%, BKNG -4%, OLED -4%, APPN -4%, COIN -4%, SYK -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: AAPL, PARA, EXPE, LYV, PODD, SQ, FTNT, CVNA, DKNG, TRUP, FND (CNBC)
    • Apple (AAPL) Sales Decline as China Market Weighs on Results. (WSJ)
    • US Steel (X) Auction to Near End With Site Visits Next Week. (Bloomberg)
    • Starbucks (SBUX) unveils plan to add 17,000 locations by 2030, cut $3 billion in costs. (CNBC)
    • Jack Dorsey warns Block (SQ) employees of coming job cuts: ‘The growth of our company has far outpaced the growth of our business.’ (Business Insider)
    • Block (SQ) shares surge after earnings beat and increased full-year guidance. (CNBC)
    • Paramount (PARA) stock rises after strong earnings report, adding to blockbuster day. (CNBC)
    • DraftKings (DKNG) revenue jumps 57% as sportsbook leader grows customer base. (CNBC)
    • Sam Bankman-Fried Convicted of Fraud in FTX Collapse. (WSJ)
    • TSLA: UAW President Is Ready to Take on Tesla and Beat Elon Musk – ‘We can beat anybody,’ union chief says after contract wins – Non-union plants and workers are already reacting to deal. (Bloomberg)
    • BofA Bull & Bear Indicator Drops To 1.4, Lowest Since Nov 2022, Bofa Says Gives Contrarian ‘buy’ Signal.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Index Changes:
      • Burlington Stores (BURL) Set to Join S&P MidCap 400; Envestnet (ENV) to Join S&P SmallCap 600.
    • Bill.com (BILL) announces BILL Chief Financial Officer John Rettig has been promoted to President.
    • Box (BOX) appoints Olivia Nottebohm as COO.
    • El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO)  announces that Laurance Roberts is leaving his position as President, CEO and Director after more than 10 years at the Company.
    • Expedia Group (EXPE) announces $5 billion share repurchase authorization.
    • Henry Schein (HSIC) files to delay its 10-Q.
    • PARTS iD (ID) Receives Notice of Non-compliance from NYSE American.
    • Warrantee Inc. (WRNT) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Delisting Determination; Plans to Appeal.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Brinks (BCO) announces additional $500 million share repurchase authorization.
    • El Pollo Loco (LOCO) approved $20 million share buyback on October 31.
    • Expedia Group (EXPE) Announces $5 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • Fox Factory Holding (FOXF) authorizes up to $300 million for repurchases.
    • Block (SQ) authorizing $1.0 billion for share repurchases.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • CELH announces 3 for 1 stock split.
    • CANO trading reverse split price.
    • JFBR trading reverse split price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • AFG will pay a $1.50 special dividend.
    • EOG Resources (EOG) increased quarterly dividend by 10%, declared special dividend of $1.50 per share.
    • Fortive (FTV) increases quarterly cash dividend 14% to $0.08 per share from $0.07 per share.
    • Microchip Technology (MCHP) Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend 33.8% Year-Over-Year to 43.9 Cents Per Share.
    • Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) Declares Quarterly Common Share Dividend.
    • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) increases quarterly cash dividend to $3.20 per share from $1.84 per share.
    • SM Energy (SM) approves 20% increase in fixed dividend policy.
    • Southside Banc (SBSI) declares a special cash dividend of $0.02 per share.
    • Snap-On (SNA) increases quarterly cash dividend 14.8% to $1.86/share from $1.62 per share.
    • TELUS Corporation (TU) Notice of Cash Dividend.
    • WK Kellogg Co (KLG) declares $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, calculating to roughly 6.4% yield.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -2, Dow Jones +18,  NASDAQ -27, and Russell 2000 +7.  (as of 8:05 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher while Europe is lower ex Germany this morning. VIX Futures are at 16.60 from 17.05 yesterday.  Gold is higher while Silver and Copper are lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.647% from 4.709% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $34,220 from $35,383 yesterday, lower by -2.02%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate, Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Financial, Utilities, Industrial, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners: None of note.
  • Three Month Winners: None of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Stocks rose broadly Thursday, gaining for a second day after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank may be done lifting interest rates for now.  The S&P 500 rose 1.9% in its biggest gain since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added more than 560 points, or 1.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite was 1.8% higher.  All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher, with energy, utilities and consumer-discretionary shares among the top advancers. The rate-sensitive real-estate sector led the way, rising 3.1%. Mortgage rates fell slightly this week, dropping for the first time in nearly two months. (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: IT +0.60, AMCX +0.55, FLR +0.46, CAH +0.33, CNK +0.20, CBOE +0.20, PRLB +0.19, ENB +0.19, USM +0.13, MGA +0.13, PRVA +0.12, SRE +0.07, ATMU +0.07, OMI +0.06, CHD +0.05, QSR +0.05, BLMN +0.03, WPC +0.03, LOVE +0.03, EDIT +0.03, NWN +0.02, TILE +0.02, CRBG +0.02, D +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: SSP +0.00, TIXT +0.00, HR +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: TDS (0.12), FLGT (0.07), EAF (0.05), PAA (0.05), BEP (0.01), SLCA (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: AXL, GTES, KOP, MOG.A, TU of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: SWI, FSS, DRS, ITRI, IDCC, QLYS, DOCN, UDMY, MSI, LOPE, YELP, DKNG, NET, BL, IAS, SPXC, TXG, SPT, PRDO, FIGS, HURN, ACHC, ED, FLR, IT, ATMU, SRE, CAH, FUBO, WPC of note.
  • Negative Guidance: ARW, OMCL, BYND, SNDR, ALGT, RDFN, KTOS, SWKS, APPN, FTNT, PCTY, OPEN, FND, MCW, COHU, BILL, ACCO, LASR, ALTR, RKT, MCHP, CHUY, FNKO, FOXF, AMN, BOOT, OEC, HLIO, VIAV, RYAN, AGL, DBX, TILE, BLMN, CHD, LOVE, D of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: DOCN 21%, SQ 17%, UDMY 15%, IAS 14%, TRUP 13%, SPT 13%, DH 12%, IPHA 11%, ALHC 9%, EXPE 9%, PODD 9%, FET 9%, DKNG 8%, FLR 8%, CYTK 8%, PRLB 7%, BURL 6%, BL 6%, CRBG 6%, DVAX 6%, PRTA 6%, HASI 5%, FIGS 5%, FNKO 5%, CODI 5%, RLAY 5%, PARA 5%, YELP 5%, GDYN 4%, PRDO 4%, FIVN 4% of note.
  • Gap Down: BILL -35%, FTNT -24%, FOXF -17%, AGL -16%, BOOM -14%, FND -14%, PCTY -9%, STEM -9%, TEAM -8%, ACCO -7%, PEN -6%, HLIO -5%, NET -5%, KURA -5%, BAP -5%, OPEN -5%, BECN -5%, COIN -4%, MCY -4%, BOOT -4%, KTOS -4%, PLYA -4%, PANW -4% of note.

Insider Action: MAA sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things You Need To Know Before You Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Sam Bankman-Fried convicted of fraud in stunning FTX crash. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Harvard and Yale warned by top law firms about antisemitism. (Bloomberg)
  • US Futures slip in subdued trading before jobs report: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • October Jobs Report to mark end of blowout payroll gains. (Bloomberg)
  • Restaurant Brands (QSR) misses on estimates as Burger King misses the mark. (CNBC)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace:   Netflix ad gamble, global AI concerns and slumping EV sales. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily: The year that shaped the Israeli Palestinian Conflict – 1948. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News:  Israel Army completes the encirclement of Gaza City. (Podcast) 
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: The man with $1.2 trillion set for infrastructure, White House Infrastructure Coordinator Mitch Landrieu. (Podcast) 
  • Wealthion: How to invest in farmland. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score jumps 74% from 48%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President participates in a family photo with summit leaders, 9:45 AM
    • The President hosts leaders from the Western Hemisphere at the White House during the inaugural Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity Leaders’ Summit, 10:00 AM
    • The President departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews and arrive 2:50 p.m. EDT in Lewiston, Maine, 12:40 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady meet with first responders, nurses, and others on the front lines of the response, 3:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks paying respects to the victims of this horrific attack and thanks the first responders, nurses, and others on the front lines of the response; The First Lady attends, 4:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady meet with families and victims of this horrific attack, 5:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady depart Lewiston, Maine en route Brunswick, Maine and arrive 9:40 p.m. EDT at Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, 7:20 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • September Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 175,000 from 336,000.  The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.80%.
  • PMI Composite Final 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • October ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 53% from 53.60%.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • 12:45 p.m. EDT Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari Speaks
  • 3:00 p.m. EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr Speaks

M&A Activity and News: 

  • Travelers (TRV) to Acquire Corvus Insurance.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: HRB
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AITX, BCRX, HOWL
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Society for Dermatologic Surgery
    • Cystic Fibrosis Conference
    • Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer
        • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: