CAPIS Morning Note – 10/31/23: Stocks To Close October Down For Third Month In A Row, Trend Change in November?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 1.20% at 4166.82 from Friday lower by -0.48% at 4117.37. The overnight high was hit at 4196.25 at 6:05 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4166.75 at 2:15 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 30 points as of 6:15 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 1.20% at 4166.82 from Friday lower by -0.48% at 4117.37. The overnight high was hit at 4196.25 at 6:05 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4166.75 at 2:15 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 30 points as of 6:15 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 31.20 from 30.30 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-September average was 20.96 from 21.10 in May through August and the September average was 19.87. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by  +9.75 points which is  0.23% at 6:15 a.m. EDT.

Stat of The Month: October has seen three days with moves of greater than +1% and five days with moves lower than -1%. Definitely, a volatile month with 38% of the days seeing a move of greater than or less than 1% as we head into the last two months of the year.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: ACGL +0.70, RMBS +0.52, PSA +0.39, MATX +0.32, ANET +0.25, THC +0.24, SPG +0.23, BCC +0.16, WOLF +0.14, AXNX +0.13, KFRC +0.13, PINS +0.07, TREX +0.07, ADUS +0.07, VRNS +0.06, INST +0.05, SITC +0.05, EQC +0.04, LUNG +0.04, CSWC +0.04, OGS +0.03, WELL +0.03, HTLF +0.03, DENN +0.02, QGEN +0.02, MPWR +0.02, PACB +0.02, ZI +0.01, IRT +0.01, LSCC +0.01, AMKR +0.01, CHGG +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: CWK +0.00, PDM +0.00, BRX +0.00, VNO +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: WK (0.69), CACC (0.28), PSMT (0.20), PCH (0.18), RIG (0.14), FWRD (0.13), FMC (0.10), KMPR (0.07), LEG (0.04), VFC (0.02), CRK (0.01), HLIT (0.01) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Alpha Technology Group Limited (ATGL) Announces Pricing of Its Initial Public Offering.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • BMY: Prices $4.5 Billion of Senior Unsecured Notes.
    • DGX: Prices $750 Million of Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ANVS: Announces Launch of Proposed Public Offering. (Canaccord Bookmanager)
    • DLPN: Filed Form 424B5 Offering.
    • DPRO: Announces Closing of US$3.5 Million Underwritten Offering.
    • MDAI: Filed Form S-1.. PRIMARY OFFERING OF Up To 8,433,231 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Warrants SECONDARY OFFERING OF Up To 10,069,748 Shares of Common Stock.
    • ORGS: Proposed Underwritten Public Offering. (EF Hutton Bookmanager)
      • ORGS: Announces Withdrawal of Proposed Public Offering.
    • PPBT: Filed Form F-1.. 4,652,175 American Depositary Shares representing 46,521,750 Ordinary Shares.
    • RNAZ: Withdraws Public Offering.
    • SCNI: Filed Form F-1.. 1,215,345 American Depositary Shares representing 486,138,000 Ordinary Shares.
    • SDA: Announces the Closing of $21 Million Follow-on Offering.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • PRZO: Announces Closing of $5.1 Million Private Placement.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • GEO: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • GLDG: Filed Form F-10.. $130,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • PFS: Files mixed shelf securites offering.
    • SWK: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • CHTR: Filed Form S-3ASR Debt Securities.
    • CNI: Announces US$600 Million Debt Offering.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • WDC: Commences $1.3 billion offering of convertible senior notes due 2028.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: PINS +13%, WOLF +11%, LUNG +10%, ANET +5%, KMPR +4%, MPWR +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: PETS -19%, AMKR -16%, LSCC -16%, AESI -8%, VFC -7%, MDXG -7%, WDC -5%, HLIT -5%, CHGG -5%, VRNS -4%, VNO -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: PINS, ANET, LSCC, WOLF, THC, VFC, MPWR (CNBC)
    • Chegg (CHGG) swings to quarterly loss, CFO to retire. (MarketWatch)
    • Pinterest (PINS) jumps on better-than-expected third-quarter results (CNBC)
    • SEC charges SolarWinds (SWI) and company executive with fraud after massive cybersecurity breach (MarketWatch)
    • Wolfspeed’s (WOLF) stock rallies 13% as company notches smaller loss than expected (MarketWatch)
    • Pipe and Fittings Distributor MRC Global (MRC) Explores Potential Sale. (Bloomberg)
    • Apple (AAPL) Announces New Chips – M3, M3 Pro, M3 Max 3-Nanometer Chips For Macs. (MarketWatch)
    • GM and UAW Reach Tentative Agreement. (GMRelease)
    • White House’s Sullivan in Meeting with Saudi Defense Minister Confirmed Biden’s Commitment to Support the Defense of U.S. Partners Against Threats from State and Non-State Actors, Including Those Backed by Iran. (White House)
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded $996 million U.S. Air Force contract.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Alliance Entertainment (AENT) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule Following the Filing of its Fiscal Year 2023 Form 10-K with SEC.
    • BlackBerry (BB) announces John Chen to retire as Executive Chair and CEO.
    • Instructure (INST) announces CFO departure.
    • Logitech Int’l SA (LOGI) appoints Hanneke Faber as CEO.
    • State Street (STT) COO and head of Investment Services Louis D. Maiuri to retire by early 2024; succeeded by Mostapha Tahiri; Chairman and CEO Ron O’Hanley assuming office of the president.
    • Sensata (ST) Announces New Chief Financial Officer.
    • Ultra Clean (UCTT) Announces Departure of Chief Operating Officer.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Bank7 Corp. (BSVN) Announces Renewal of Stock Repurchase Plan.
    • Monolithic Power (MPWR) announces $640 million for share repurchases.
    • The Vita Coco Company (COCO) approved new $40 million repurchase program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Jeffs’ Brands (JFBR) Announces 1-For-7 Reverse Share Split.
    • PXMD trading reverse split price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Cameco (CCJ) Dividend Declared.
    • Cognex (CGNX) increases quarterly dividend to $0.075 from $0.07 per share.
    • CVR Energy (CVI) declares special dividend of $1.50 per share.
    • NOG Declares $0.40 Quarterly Cash Dividend, 33% Increase Year-over-Year, 5% Sequential Increase over Prior Quarter.
    • Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.4375 per Share.
    • PetMed Express (PETS) Board of Directors and management have made a decision to suspend the quarterly dividend.
    • Ryerson (RYI) raises dividend by 1.4%.
    • SITE Centers (SITC) expects to pay special dividend of at least $0.10 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +10, Dow Jones +64,  NASDAQ +23, and Russell 2000 +7.  (as of 7:54 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher ex South Korea while Europe is higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 19.25 from 20.38 yesterday.  Gold higher, Silver lower and Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.812% from 4.886% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $34,420 from $34,496 yesterday, higher by 0.03%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Financial, Consumer Defensive, Industrials, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners: None of note.
  • Three Month Winners: None of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Stocks posted solid gains Monday ahead of this week’s central-bank meetings, jobs data and a highly anticipated borrowing announcement from the Treasury Department.  Bouncing back from a difficult week when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite entered into corrections—or declines of 10% from their recent peaks—all three major indexes gained more than 1%, powered in large part by a rebound in shares of large technology companies.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the way, rising 1.6%, or 511 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both advanced 1.2%. (WSJ – edited by QPI)

  

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BLD +0.86, CAT +0.72, AGCO +0.66, LGIH +0.66, GPRE +0.46, SSTK +0.45, MPC +0.39, LDOS +0.36, PJT +0.32, HNI +0.30, AMGN +0.28, MBUU +0.25, CCJ +0.23, ALLE +0.21, ETRN +0.20, MSCI +0.14, ETN +0.13, PEG +0.10, XYL +0.10, GEHC +0.09, WEC +0.09, IGT +0.08, RGEN +0.07, ZBRA +0.06, AME +0.06, GPN +0.04, GPK +0.03, PACK +0.03, COCO +0.02, BUD +0.02, CGNX +0.02, ST +0.01, HAYW +0.01, SIRI +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: LXP +0.00, DEA +0.00, MAC +0.00, PRFT +0.00, NPO +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: BP (0.25), NBIX (0.22), DORM (0.19), JBLU (0.14), HUBB (0.11), INCY (0.10), PFE (0.09), MPLX (0.08), EPD (0.04), HRMY (0.04), ARES (0.04), TECH (0.02) of note.
  • Still to Report: CVLT, ECL, BEN, NSP, IPGP, SFM, STVN, SYY, TNC, UFPI of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: WDC, AXNX, KFRC, VRNS, LUNG, ANET, SPG, WELL, WK, KRG, SITC, OTTR, ALLE, LDOS, ETN, IGT, XYL, AMGN, COCO, SSTK, UE, AGCO of note.
  • Negative Guidance: COMM, LSCC, AMKR, IRT, HLIT, LEG, FMC, THC, FWRD, PLOW, ST, CGNX, JBLU, PFE, DORM, HAYW, HUBB of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: BEAM +33%, PINS +17%, WOLF +14%, LUNG +14%, RYI +12%, VERV +11%, ANET +10%, TREX +9%, MPWR +6%, KMPR +5%, OTTR +5%, QGEN +4%, BUD +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: PETS -25%, LSCC -17%, FWRD -11%, AMKR -10%, HLIT -9%, VFC -7%, PLOW -7%, KRG -6%, CGNX -6%, DENN -6%, MDXG -5%, AESI -5%, WDC -4%, CHGG -4%, VRNS -4%, FMC -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things You Need To Know Before You Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Israel Latest: Israel Latest: UN warns the war is spilling over into Syria. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Saudi forces on alert after clashes with Iran backed Houthis.  (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Opinion: How Xi Jinping led China’s economy astray. (Bloomberg)
  • Bank of Japan did not raise rates but eliminated the cap, handing the bond market back to investors. (Bloomberg)
  • US Treasury to borrow $776 billion in last three months of 2023. (CNBC)
  • Amgen (AMGN) raises guidance after closing Horizon deal. (Bloomberg)
  • Pfizer (PFE) swings to a loss for the quarter on Paxlovid, Covid vaccine writeoffs. (CNBC)
  • BP shares down -4% as profits plummet. (CNBC)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace:   Biden’s Executive Order aims to limit the harms of AI. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily:  A historic strike (and win) for the autoworkers. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News:  Israel rescues solider held by Hamas in Gaza. (Podcast) 
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: From Poland to India, food security is a big issue. (Podcast) 

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes to 11.  That’s one louder than 10 (shout out Spinal Tap)

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 1:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks on protecting Americans’ retirement security, 3:30 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Employment Cost Index 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • October Chicago PMI is out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 45 from 44.10.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • FHFA HPI 9:00 a.m. EDT
  • August S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.1%.
  • October Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 100 from 103.
  • Farm Prices 3:00 p.m. EDT
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins a two day meeting that concludes with its announcement on Wednesday and press conference after.

M&A Activity and News:

  • Hubbell (HUBB) to Acquire Systems Control for $1.1 billion in cash.
  • IDEX Corporation (IEX) Expanding Material Science Manufacturing Expertise With Acquisition of STC Material Solutions for $206 million in cash.
  • Ryan Specialty Group (RYAN) to acquire AccuRisk Holdings, LLC.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
      • Gabelli Funds’ Automotive Symposium
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: OLIT
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: APRE, BHIL
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer Meeting (10/31/23-11/04/23)
    • American Society of Human Genetics Meeting 2023 (10/31/23-11/04/23)
    • American Association of Neuromuscular & Electrodiagnostic Medicine Meeting (10/31/23-11/03/23)
    • American College of Lifestyle Medicine’s
    • Targeted Protein Degradation Summit
    • Western States Acquirers Association
        • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: