CAPIS Morning Note – 10/30/23: Stocks Rebounds From Last Week’s Selling As Fed Meeting Concludes Wednesday

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.48% at 4117.37 from Thursday lower by -1.18% at 4137.23. The overnight high was hit at 4167 at 5:20 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4135.50 at 6:05 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 32 points as of 7:15 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of…

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.48% at 4117.37 from Thursday lower by -1.18% at 4137.23. The overnight high was hit at 4167 at 5:20 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4135.50 at 6:05 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 32 points as of 7:15 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 30.30 from 29.40 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-September average was 20.96 from 21.10 in May through August and the September average was 19.87. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by  +25.25 points which is  0.61% at 7:15 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Digital Health Acquisition Corp. (DHAC) Announces Listing Transfer to the Nasdaq Capital Market.
    • Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) Announces Filing of Amended Annual Report, Marking an Important Milestone in Preparation for the Expected S-4 Filing.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ATEC: ATEC Announces Closing of Public Stock Offering.
    • ASM: Secondary offering of 14 Million shares.
    • IBIO: Filed Form S-1 Offering.
    • IDYA: Announces Closing of Public Offering Including Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • MAMA: Files for 5,629,921 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • EQIX: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • CL: Filed Form S-3ASR — Debt Securities.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: TGH 43.7%, CUBI 23.6%, NEP 22.8%, LRN 21.7%, PI 21.3%, BPMC 19.2%, GOL 18.9%, NTGR 17.2%, FCN 15.9%, DECK 15.8%, ATGE 15.1%, FIX 14.9%, MOR 14.9%, SKYW 13.5%, CFFN 12.8%, NGD 11.2%, PMT 11.2%, CBAY 11.1%, LOGI 11.1%, SMPL 10.9%.
    • Trading Down: B -37.9%, TRU -33.3%, ALGN -29.4%, MXL -26.5%, GTLS -26.5%, CHRS -25.4%, CALX -24.9%, SNBR -24.1%, THRM -23.6%, DM -23.5%, TBI -22.8%, AAN -22.4%, HTZ -21.3%, SPWR -20.7%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) disclosed DOJ issued civil investigative demands in connection with a civil investigation under the False Claims Act relating to free or discounted intraocular lenses and equipment used in eye surgery.
    • Korn/Ferry (KFY) announces 8% workforce reduction.
    • Wells Fargo (WFC) Vice Chairman Thomas Nides to step down.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • The United Auto Workers union has reached a tentative agreement with Stellantis, a source. (NYT)
    • Earnings Season Is Shaping Up Nicely. Investors Don’t Seem to Care. (WSJ)
    • Hedge Fund Two Sigma Is Hit by Trading Scandal.  Firm tells clients that researcher made unauthorized adjustments that resulted in total of $620 million in unexpected gains and losses (WSJ)
    • How to play the coming January bounce-back for 2023’s stock-market losers. Firm, Two Sigma, tells clients that researcher made unauthorized adjustments that resulted in total of $620 million in unexpected gains and losses (MarketWatch)
    • SPX “is down 10.3% from its July 31 peak .. It’s not likely to regain what has been lost since then over the rest of this year, as we had expected in August and September.” The $RUT bear market, “which started on November 8, 2021, .. may be resuming.” – (@yardeni  Carl Q)
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: COIN, TLT, ON of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:
    •  
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Biophytis (BPTS) Receives Notice of Delisting From Nasdaq and Announces It Will Request a Hearing Before the Nasdaq Hearings Panel.
    • DHI Group (DHX) has hired Raime Leeby as its new Chief Financial Officer.
    • ESGL Holdings Limited (ESGL) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency and Minimum Market Value Deficiency.
    • Marsh McLennan (MMC) delisting from the London Stock Exchange; to maintain primary listing on NYSE.
    • SaverOne (SVRE) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Notification.
    • Turnstone Biologics (TSBX) Expands Scientific Advisory Board with Appointment of Dr. Jeffrey S. Weber.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • GVP trading reverse split price
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Leidos (LDOS) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.38 per share from $0.36 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note:
    • FIBK 10% owner sold 13,400 shares at $23.24 – $23.44 worth ~$313K.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +28, Dow Jones +191NASDAQ +113, and Russell 2000 +14.  (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT).  Asia is lower ex South Korea while Europe is higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 20.38 from 20.60 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper are higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.886% from 4.873% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $34,496 from $34,013 Friday, lower by -0.26%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare, Utilities, Financial, Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, Energy of note.
  • One Month Winners: Communication Services, Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy and Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

U.S. stocks closed out a rough week mostly lower on Friday, leaving the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both in correction territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average market correction, ending at least 10% below its prior peak set in July. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.4%, but ended lower for a third straight week. It shed 2.6% for the week, while the S&P 500 lost 2.5% and the Dow fell 2.1% since Monday. Stocks have been under pressure from higher long-dated Treasury yields, with the 10-year 4.840% rate easing back from a brief high of 5% in recent sessions to about 4.846% Friday. Focus next week will be on the Treasury’s release of its expecting $1.5 trillion borrowing need and the Federal Reserve’s decision on rates due Wednesday. (MarketWatch – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close:

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: XPO +0.24, SJW +0.17, MCD +0.17, CNA +0.07, CHKP +0.05, ON +0.05, SOFI +0.05 of note.
  • Flat: DOC of note.
  • Misses: JKS (4.09), RVTY (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: WDC of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: SJW, SOFI of note.
  • Negative Guidance: NWE, RVTY, ON of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: MIRO +226%, TRML +7% of note.
  • Gap Down: RVTY -4%, MT -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. HHH sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: MCD, SOFI, EWBC, INVH, LHX, FLAC, DKNG (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Israel Latest: War intensifies as Netanyahu faces calls to quit. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared StoryHedge funds pile into Uranium stocks set for “dramatic rise”. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Opinion: Consumers retreat in starts for boats and motorcycles. (Bloomberg)
  • Stock rebound wanes with S&P 500 near key levels: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • President Biden unveils executive order on AI to create new safeguards. (CNBC)
  • The Fed keeps going back and forth with “good new, bad news” scenarios. (Fox Business)
  • Nelson Peltz’s push for Walt Disney (DIS) Board seats. (WSJ)
  • McDonalds (MCD) revenue climbs 14% as price hike boosts sales. (CNBC)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace:  Why default settings are important to a search engine’s success. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily:  A new threat: surprise hurricanes. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: Evacuating Gaza hospital will endanger lives. (Podcast
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: Taylor Swift is a pop icon and a billionaire. (Podcast

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 2%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The First Lady depart Wilmington, Delaware en route to Joint Base Andrews, 9:40 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady depart Joint Base Andrews, 10:20 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady arrive at the White House, 10:50 a.m. EDT
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing; The Vice President attends, 11:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The Vice President participate in an event highlighting the Administration’s commitment to advancing the safe, secure, and trustworthy development and use of Artificial Intelligence, 2:30 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby, 3:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady host local public school students, military-connected children, and neighborhood families for trick-or-treating, 5:30 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • 3 and 6 Month Bill Auction 11:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • Fed Blackout period until FOMC Announcement on November 1st 2023.

M&A Activity and News:

  • Eargo (EAR) To Be Taken Private By Patient Square Capital.
  • Healthpeak Properties (PEAK) and Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) to Combine in an All-Stock Merger of Equals to Create the Pre-Eminent Owner, Operator and Developer of Real Estate for Healthcare Discovery and Delivery, An Attractive and Growing Market.
  • Lumentum (LITE) to Acquire Cloud Light for transaction value of approx. $750 million to Accelerate Data Center Speed and Scalability.
  • Miromatrix Medical (MIRO): United Therapeutics (UTHR) to acquire Miromatrix for $3.25 per share and an additional $1.75 per share in cash upon the achievement of a clinical development milestone.
  • Nayax Ltd. (NYAX) to acquire Retail Pro International.
  • Omnicom (OMC) acquires Flywheel Digital for $835 million.
  • Realty Income (O) to Acquire Spirit Realty Capital (SRC) in $9.3 Billion Transaction.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Gabelli Funds’ Automotive Symposium
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: BTTX, HNRA, ITP 
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls:  BPTH
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Apple (AAPL) “Scary Fast” event today at 8:00 p.m. EDT
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Canexec Global Cannabis Executive Summit
    • Turkish Biochemical Society International Biochemistry Congress
        • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: