CAPIS Morning Note – 10/25/23: Futures Lower Despite Strong Earnings From Microsoft. Google Cloud Sales Weaker Than Expected.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.73% at 4247.68 from Monday lower by -0.17% at 4217.04. The overnight high was hit at 4282.50 at 4:15 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4245.75 at 3:30 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 36 points as of 7:25 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.73% at 4247.68 from Monday lower by -0.17% at 4217.04. The overnight high was hit at 4282.50 at 4:15 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4245.75 at 3:30 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 36 points as of 7:25 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 24.20 from 23.70 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-September average was 20.96 from 21.10 in May through August and the September average was 19.87. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by  -12 points which is  -0.28% at 7:25 a.m. EDT.

Short Interest Release (www.goodmorningwallst.com): Bi-Weekly release as of 10/24/23 close.

 

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: WFRD +0.51, CB +0.49, LRN +0.48, MSFT +0.34, MSA +0.32, MANH +0.29, FFIV +0.29, SNAP +0.26, UMBF +0.25, MTDR +0.20, WIRE +0.16, JBT +0.13, RRC +0.12, GOOG +0.09, RHI +0.09, V +0.08, EGP +0.07, RNST +0.06, NXGN +0.06, RUSHA +0.05, VICR +0.04, NTB +0.03, TDOC +0.02, WM +0.02, BDN +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: ROIC +0.00, CSGP +0.00, HIW +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: ENVA (0.50), HA (0.12), AMED (0.10), CHX (0.08), BYD (0.08), VBTX (0.04), TRMK (0.03), TXN (0.02), FCF (0.01), FFBC (0.01), NBHC (0.01), CNI (0.01) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Abivax (ABVX) Announces Closing of its Initial Public Offering on the Nasdaq Global Market.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • ATEC: Prices offering of 14.3 million shares of common stock at $10.50 per share.
    • IDYA: Prices offering of 5.0 mln shares of common stock at $23.50 per share.
    • SONN: Announces Pricing of $4.55 Million Underwritten Public Offering.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ATEC: Public Offering of Common Stock. $150Million of Shares. (MS, TD, BCS and Stifel bookmanager)
    • BRSH: Filed Form F-1.. 28,591,268 Common Shares.
    • CFRX: Filed Form S-1.. 7,034,883 Shares.
    • IDYA: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants – $125.0 million of shares. (JPM, GS, Jefferies and RBC Bookmanager)
    • WFRD: Announces $550 Million Credit Facility with $300 Million Borrowing Capacity.
  • Direct Offering:
    • PTN: Announces Closing of $5 Million Registered Direct Offering.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • ADIL: Announces Closing of $4 Million Private Placement Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • MARA: Filed Form S-3ASR .. $750,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: LRN +11%, MASS +4%, WFRD +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: CHX -12%, VICR -10%, CSGP -9%, SPWR -8%, IDYA -8%, TDOC -8%, ATEC -8%, HA -8%, ENVA -7%, GOOG -6%, MANH -5%, BYD -5%, TXN -5%, ROIC -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: MSFT, GOOGL, SNAP, V, TXN, CSGP, LRN (CNBC)
    • Microsoft (MSFT) ticks up on faster cloud growth and hopeful revenue forecast. (CNBC)
    • Google’s (GOOGL) Cloud Sales Disappoint as Advertising Rebounds. (WSJ)
    • SNAP Returns to Revenue Growth on Improved Ad Business. (Bloomberg)
    • Texas Instruments’ (TXN) stock slides after 3Q revenue miss, weak guidance. (MarketWatch)
    • Rep Tom Emmer Withdraws as Speaker Nominee Amid Conservative Blowback. (WSJ)
    • Apple (AAPL) Pay Later is now available to everyone in US, no longer in beta. (AppleInsider)
    • Visa (V) CEO: “.. we’re not economic forecasters and so, at a macro level, we are assuming no recession .. We are also not factoring in any impacts from rising inflation and student loan repayments because, as I mentioned before, we have yet to see any meaningful impact.” — (Carl Q CNBC)
    • GOOGL Gene Munster sees that, “the sell off is an over reaction” (CNBC)
    • 908 Devices (MASS) Awarded $10.4 million Order from the United States Air Force for its Handheld MX908 Device.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Almaden (AAU) Announces Extension of Cure Period for NYSE American Listing.
    • Appreciate (SFR) Receives Notice From Nasdaq Regarding Delisting.
    • Aterian (ATER) Receives Extension To Regain Compliance With Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Rule.
    • DouYu (DOYU) Announces Receipt of Minimum Bid Price Notice from Nasdaq.
    • Energy Recovery (ERII) appoints David Moon as interim CEO effective immediately.
    • Marin Software (MRIN) Receives Approval to Transfer Listing to Nasdaq Capital Market.
    • NextPlay Technologies (NXTP) Receives Notice From Nasdaq Regarding Delayed Q2 Quarterly Report.
    • QBTS: D-Wave Receives Notice of Non-Compliance with NYSE Trading Share Price Listing Rule.
    • SNAP: Announced COO Jerry Hunter will retire, effective July 1, 2024.
    • Staffing 360 Solutions (STAF) Receives Nasdaq Notification of Potential Delisting for Non-Compliance with Listing Rule 5250(c)(1).
    • Teledyne Tech (TDY) names new CEO and new COO; also Robert Mehrabian to become Exec Chairman.
    • Universal Stainless/Alloy (USAP) appoints Christopher Zimmer as CEO.
    • Wolfspeed (WOLF) announces that Thomas Werner, a board member since 2006, has been elected the new Chairman of the Board.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Canadian Nat’l Rail (CNI) increases buyback authorization by C$500 million.
    • Enova (ENVA) Reports Third Quarter 2023 Results and New $300 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Novo Integrated Sciences’ (NVOS) Board of Directors Approves $5 Million Stock Repurchase Program.
    • Ryder (R) Authorizes New Discretionary and Anti-Dilutive Programs to Repurchase Shares.
      Stifel Financial (SF) approved an increase to the Company’s share repurchase program of an additional 10.0 million shares, bringing the authorized share repurchase amount to 14.2 million shares.
    • Snap Inc. (SNAP) also announced today its board of directors has authorized a stock repurchase program of up to $500 million of its Class A common stock.
    • Visa (V) Authorized A New $25.0 billion Multi-year Share Buyback Program. (see dividends)
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc., (MITT) Announces Interim Fourth Quarter Common Dividend of $0.08 Per Share.
    • Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) Announces Increase in Common Stock Dividend.
    • Getty Realty Corp. (GTY) increases quarterly cash dividend 4.7% to $0.45 per share from $0.43 per share.
    • Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) initiates quarterly dividend of $0.38/share of common stock.
    • Mueller Water (MWA) increases quarterly dividend to $0.064 per share from $0.061.
    • Prosperity Bancshares (PB) approved raising the fourth quarter 2023 dividend to $0.56 per share from $0.55 per share that was paid in the prior four quarters.
    • Rollins (ROL) increases quarterly cash dividend 15% to $0.15 per share.
    • Shenandoah Telecom (SHEN) increases annual dividend to $0.09 per share from $0.08 per share.
    • UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) approves 2.6% dividend increase.
    • Visa (V) increase to Visa’s quarterly cash dividend to $0.52/share
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -12, Dow Jones +69,  NASDAQ -72, and Russell 2000 -9.  (as of 7:56 a.m. EDT).  Asia is lower ex the Nikkei while Europe is higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 19.15 from 19.45 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.85% unchanged from yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and flat against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $34,233 from $34,300 yesterday, higher by +1.32%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy of note.
  • One Month Winners: Communication Services, Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy and Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Makers of everything from Post-it Notes to jet engines to business software clued in Wall Street Tuesday on their 2023 outlooks. Markets were cautiously optimistic.  The three major stock indexes opened in the green and didn’t look back. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher 0.6%, or 205 points. The S&P 500 climbed 0.7% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%.  Dramatic swings in government bonds in recent weeks have raised Americans’ borrowing costs and complicated investors’ outlook for when the central bank may lower rates, rattling financial markets. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield stabilized Tuesday at 4.840%.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: META, IBM, NOW, CP, EQIX, KLAC, ORLY, EW, BKR, AMP, VICI, URI, AEM, AVB, ALGN, MOH, RJF, INVH, ICLR, EQT, EG, ROL, MAA, IEX, TER, SUI, GGG, FLEX
  • Thursday Before the Open: MA, MRK, CMCSA, UPS, HON, BMY, MO, AMT, NOC, BSX, VLO, CARR, KDP, HSY, KVUE, STM, GWW, PCG, NEM, WST, VMC, TSCO, RCL, LH, CNP, CMS, BG, TXT, LUV, RS, STX, LKQ, LII, IP, MAS, KIM, AOS

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: COOP +2.40, GPI +0.59, HES +0.42, WFRD +0.35, TDY +0.29, PRG +0.27, OC +0.26, WAB +0.24, ODFL +0.17, WNC +0.14, MCO +0.13, GD +0.13, TMUS +0.12, EVR +0.11, ROP +0.10, TNL +0.08, OMF +0.08, TMO +0.08, VRT +0.08, OTIS +0.07, ADP +0.06, TMHC +0.05, PB +0.04, SLGN +0.04, CME +0.03, OPCH +0.02, MSM +0.02, HLT +0.01, MNRO +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: LTH +0.00, HCSG +0.00, FTV +0.00, MKTX +0.00, AVY +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: LAD (0.74), SF (0.69), NAVI (0.27), CNX (0.20), RES (0.16), GBX (0.09), BA (0.08), IART (0.02) of note.
  • Still to Report: APH, BOKF, CSTM, FSV, LKFN, NSC, RDUS, R of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: EGP, MANH, LRN, VRT, WAB, ROP, WNC, PRG of note.
  • Negative Guidance: ITW, FELE, TXN, TDOC, CSGP, FFIV, USNA, CHX, EDU, GBX, IART, TNL, TMO, AVY, LTH, TDY, SLGN, FTV of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: VRT +13%, LRN +13%, DB +6%, BDN +6%, MASS +4%, WFRD +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: VICR -15%, CHX -13%, ATEC -13%, IDYA -12%, SPWR -9%, CSGP -9%, ENVA -8%, HA -7%, AFRM -7%, GOOG -7%, TDOC -6%, TXN -5%, USNA -5%, SBSW -5%, MANH -5%, ROIC -4%, MARA -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock  sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

  • NVVE, HHH, TCBI, TFC, VANI

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  U.S. Presses Guld Allies to Help Stem Fresh Fundraising for Hamas. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Second Most Shared Story: Apple to Revamp TV App in Step Towards Simplyfing Video Services. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Opinion:  Credit markets haven’t broken yet but they are budging. (Bloomberg)
  • US Futures slide on earnings; Alphabet drops: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Adjustable rate mortgages hit highest level in a year as interest rates climb. (CNBC)
  • Third-quarter production issues dent Boeing (BA) sales. (CNBC)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace: How teens are being blackmailed on social media. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily:  Why Israel is delaying the ground invasion. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News:  Israel demands resignation of UN Chief. (Podcast) 
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: How Bogus Jet Engine Parts Were Sold to Airlines. (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score improves to 20% from 8%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 8:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady greet Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Ms. Jodie Haydon of Australia for the Official Arrival Ceremony; The Vice President attends, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President holds a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia, 11:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President holds a joint press conference with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia, 12:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady greet Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Ms. Jodie Haydon of Australia on arrival for the State Dinner, 6:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady participate in a photo opportunity with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Ms. Jodie Haydon of Australia at the Grand Staircase on the occasion of the State Dinner, 7:05 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady host Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Ms. Jodie Haydon of Australia for a State Dinner; The Vice President and The Second Gentleman attend, 8:45 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EDT
    • U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (WOW) Actual: -1.0% VS -6.9% Previous
    • U.S MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate Actual: 7.90% VS 7.70% Previous
    • MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: -1%, Purchase: -2.2%, ReFi: +1.8%
  • September New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at 683,000 from 675,000 last month.
  • The Bank of Canada is out with its latest interest rate decision during market hours.
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • The 5-Year Treasury Auction is held at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • Fed Blackout period until FOMC Announcement on November 1st 2023.

M&A Activity and News:

  • Shenandoah Telecom (SHEN) to acquire Horizon Telcom for cash and stock.
  • Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) acquires Mineral Park Mine Silver Stream.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Fall Foliage MicroCap Rodeo Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • JPM/Robin Hood Investors Conference
        • H.C. Wainwright NASH Conference
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: AROW, CLRB, PH, XRTX
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ANAB, CAPR, HSCS, SKYE, TRV
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Cisco’s (CSCO) WebexOne Event
    • Itron (ITRI) Inspire 2023 (10/22/23-10/27/23)
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Association of Pharmaceutical Scientists
    • CTAD Conference
    • European Society of Gene & Cell Therapy
    • ICS Cybersecurity Conference
    • Lightspeed Oxygen Summit

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: