CAPIS Morning Note – 10/23/23: Futures Down But Off Lows As 10-Year Hit Above 5.00%.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -1.26% at 4224.16 from Thursday lower by -0.78% at 4278. The overnight high was hit at 4261.50 at 8:00 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4215.25 at 5:50 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 46 points as of 7:25 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -1.26% at 4224.16 from Thursday lower by -0.78% at 4278. The overnight high was hit at 4261.50 at 8:00 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4215.25 at 5:50 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 46 points as of 7:25 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 23.70 from 23.80 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-September average was 20.96 from 21.10 in May through August and the September average was 19.87. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -20.75 points which is -0.49% at 7:25 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Webuy Global Limited (WBUY) Announces Closing of $15.2 Million Initial Public Offering.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Fusion Acquisition Corp. II (FSNB) Receives Notice from the NYSE Regarding Immediate Suspension in Trading of Securities and Commencement of Delisting Proceedings.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • GTE: Announces Issuance of New 9.500% Senior Secured Amortizing Notes Due 2029 as part of the Previously Announced Exchange Offers.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AKTX: Filed Form F-3.. 1,285,506,000 Ordinary Shares Represented by 642,753 American Depostiary Shares.
    • BNMV: Filed Form S-1.. 25,000,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • BNRG: Filed Form F-1.. Common Stock.
    • MOTS: Filed Form S-1.. Common Stock Offering.
    • NUZE: Announces Closing of $1.275 Million Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering:
    • PTN: Announces $5 Million Registered Direct Offering.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • PRST: Filed Form S-3.. Secondary Offering of 52,709,824 Shares of Common Stock 7,625,000 Warrants to Purchase Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Securityholders — $75 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • SCLX: Files for 13,474,683 shares of common stock by selling shareholders; relates to warrants.
    • SLNO: Files for 3 million share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • HARP: Announces Up to $150 Million Private Placement.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ALVO: Filed Form F-3.. $100 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • BLNK: Files for $400 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • CETY: Filed Form S-3.. $75 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • EYPT: Files for $350 million mixed securities shelf offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • DC: Announces Closing of $17 Million Orion Mine Finance Investment.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: ASMB 43.5%, GTHX 29.8%, SPR 27.7%, SNBR 22.4%, PLCE 22.4%, KSS 19.7%, FATE 17.9%, VFC 16.6%, DDD 14.6%, PTCT 14.1%, EYE 13.2%, EEFT 13.1%, BIG 12.9%, DXCM 12.8%, SFIX 12.2%, NEO 11.5%.
    • Trading Down: OMER -46.0%, POL -35.0%, SEDG -30.8%, SMTC -24.3%, TUP -23.1%, ENPH -20.0%, TPIC -18.6%, MRNA -18.3%, PRAA -16.5%, HMST -15.9%, NTCT -15.8%, HRTX -15.6%, ARR -15.5%, FFWM -15.4%, TSLA -15.1%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Supreme Court blocks restrictions on Biden administration efforts to get platforms to remove social media posts. (NBC)
    • UAW President Shawn Fain says in last 24 hrs there has been progress made at GM and Stellantis (STLA) but not Ford (F); no new strikes for now, according to Detroit Free Press. (DetroitFreePress)
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • The Score – Stocks That Defined the Week:  NFLX, TSLA, UAL, RADCQ, NVDA, CHH, TNL (WSJ)
    • META, Amazon (AMZN) Earnings Put Stock Market to the Test: A slide in Tesla shares suggests traders have little patience for disappointing results. (WSJ)

    • Housing’s Other Threat to the Economy: Residential real estate has probably been boosting growth—but also hurting the economy as a whole. (WSJ)
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: NKE, LULU, AEO, ONON, GS, NFLX, C of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • AVANGRID (AGR) CFO Patricia Cosgel notifies co of her intention to resign.
    • First Financial Corporation (THFF) COO Norman D. Lowery to succeed CEO Norman L. Lowery.
    • P10 (PX) Appoints Luke Sarsfield as Chief Executive Officer.
    • reAlpha (AIRE) Announces Effectiveness of Registration Statement for Proposed Direct Listing of Its Common Stock on Nasdaq.
    • Terran Orbital (LLAP) Receives NYSE Continued Listing Standards Notice.
    • U.S. Silica (SLCA) CFO Donald Merril terminated. Appoints Interim Chief Financial Officer.
    • Viatris (VTRS) President to retire.
    • XTL Biopharmaceuticals (XTLB) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Viomi Technology Co., Ltd (VIOT) Extends its Share Repurchase Plan.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • ADXN trading reverse split price.
    • GLG 1/50 reverse split approved name change also Effective next week.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Earthstone Energy (ESTE) declared a cash dividend of $0.1446 per share of Class A and Class B common stock.
    • Middlesex Water (MSEX) increases its quarterly dividend by 4% to $0.325 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -17, Dow Jones -155,  NASDAQ -65, and Russell 2000 -8.  (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia and Europe are lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 21.47 from 20.55  yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.989% from 4.937% Friday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $30,652 from $29,986 yesterday, higher by +2.59%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Financial, Basic Materials, Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners: Communication Services, Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy and Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Energy Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Stocks fell Friday, capping a week of losses for U.S. markets. The S&P 500 fell 1.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.5%. The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 287 points, or 0.9%. All three major indexes finished the week in the red. Investors grappled with a sharp increase in borrowing costs and the possibility of worsening violence in the Middle East. Bond prices rose and yields declined. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield settled at 4.924%, down from 4.987% Thursday.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

 

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close:

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BOH +0.20, PHG €+0.04, HOPE +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: FMC of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: TGH +42%, HARP +42%, ROIV +14%, ORIC +12% of note.
  • Gap Down: RVMD -7%, EPIX -5% of note.

Insider Action: USB, DAWN sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock  sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks making the biggest move pre-market: CVX HES AAPL WBA CRM OKTA AA. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: US Push For Release Of Hostages May Delay But Will Not Stop Israeli Ground War. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Second Most Shared Story: Car owners fall behind on payments at the highest rate on record.  (Bloomberg)
  • Global stocks slump as Treasury yields hit 5.00%: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson says the next rally will fail as investors punish earnings reports. (MarketWatch)
  • 10-Year yield tops 5.00% for the first time since 2007. On track for the third year of losses in a row. (Bloomberg)
  • The bond vigilante is coming back says UBS strategist. (CNBC)
  • The economy was supposed to be slowing up by now but instead it’s revving up. (WSJ)
  • How high-interest rates sting bankers, farmers and consumers. (NYT)
  • Philips (P) raises full-year outlook as third quarter profit rises. (CNBC)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace:  CRISPRs role in ending asthma, aiding climate. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily: The problem with a $2 trillion deficit. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News:  U.N. says second aid convoy enters Gaza. (Podcast) 
  • Bloomberg: 18 Wheelers, Big Open Highways. No Driver. (Bloomberg)
  • Wealthion: Fear took over the market this week. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes down to 8% from 11%.  $SPX breaks the 200.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady depart Rehoboth Beach, Delaware en route to Fort Lesley J. McNair, 10:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady depart Fort Lesley J. McNair, 11:35 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady arrive at the White House, 11:45 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in an event highlighting how Bidenomics and his investing in America agenda are growing the economy from the middle out and bottom up in every region of the country, 2:15 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Chicago Fed Activity Index 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • 3/6 month Bill Auction 11:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • Fed Blackout period until FOMC Announcement on November 1st 2023.

M&A Activity and News:

  • Disney (DIS) Said To Near Multibillion-dollar India Deal With Ambani.
  • EngageSmart (ESMT): Visa Equity Partners nearing deal to purchase ESMT for $4 bln, according to WSJ.
  • Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NM) Announces Definitive Merger AgreementShareholders to Receive $2.28 Per Common Share in Cash.
  • noco-noco (NCNC) to Acquire X-SEPA™ Separator and Lithium-ion Battery Development Company noco-tech.
  • Roche (RHHBY) to Acquire Telavant, Including Rights To Novel TL1A-Directed Antibody (RVT-3101) From ROIV For $7.1 Billion. (CNBC)
  • Stonepeak agrees to buy shipping-container firm Textainer (TGH) for $50 per share. (CNBC)
  • Steven Madden (SHOO) announces acquisition of Almost Famous.
  • Chevron (CVX) Agrees To Acquire Hess In All-Stock Transaction Valued At $60 billion. (Bloomberg)

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: CFRX, STX, VTSI 
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AZN, HARP, NTAP, OLMA, SWAV 
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: