CAPIS Morning Note – 10/05/22: Stocks Lower As Market Prepares for OPEC+ Production Cut Announcement Today

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3790.93 (higher by 3.06%) from  Monday at 3678.43 (higher by 2.50%). The overnight high of 3808.75 was hit at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3763.25 at 6:00 a.m. EDT, a range of 44 points high to low which is near the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3790.93 (higher by 3.06%) from  Monday at 3678.43 (higher by 2.50%). The overnight high of 3808.75 was hit at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3763.25 at 6:00 a.m. EDT, a range of 44 points high to low which is near the recent range of 45.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was down -27.25 points down -0.72% at 3776

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: SGH +0.15.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Aesther Healthcare Acquisition Corp (AEHA) and Ocean Biomedical, Inc. Announce Execution of a Second up to $40 Million Backstop Agreement, for a Total of up to $80 Million.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AMLX: Announces Launch of Public Offering.. 6 Million shares. GS, BAC, SVB and Evercore bookmanagers
    • KORE: Filed Form S-3.. 31,123,253 shares of common stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering:
    • ATER: Closing of $20 Million Registered Direct Offering.
    • MEDS: Announces Pricing of $1.8 Million Registered Direct Offering.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • BRSP: Files for 34,911,944 share common stock offering by selling shareholder.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • DNA: Filed Form S-3.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • JOBY: Filed Form S-3.. $1,000,000,000 Mixed Shelf offering.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: None of note.
    • Trading Down: None of note..
  • News Since The Close:
    • Alcoa (AA) Urges LME Not to Accept Russian Metal to Avert ‘Crisis’ (Bloomberg)
    • Uber (UBER) says its chronic shortage of drivers is finally in the rear-view mirror . (FT)
    • Apple (AAPL) Asks Suppliers To Shift AirPods, Beats Production To India. (Nikkei)
    • Twitter (TWTR): Elon Musk tweets “Buying Twitter is an accelerant to creating X, the everything app.”
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Berkshire Hathaway: Will Name New Independent Board Member as Soon as Practicable.
    • EOG Resources (EOG) Chairman William R. Thomas to retire.
    • Flexsteel (FLXS) Announces Changes to Board of Directors.
    • GBT Halt – Additional Information Requested by NASDAQ.
    • P3 Health Partners (PIII) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notice of Delisting and Intention to Appeal.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • AutoZone (AZO) Authorizes Additional  $2.5 billion Stock Repurchase.
    • Ferguson PLC (FERG) Announces Share Repurchase Program.
    • Golden Ocean (GOGL) authorizes share buy back program for maximum of $100 million of common shares.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Stellus Capital Investment Corporation (SCM) Announces $0.34 Fourth Quarter 2022 Regular and Additional Dividends, Payable Monthly in Increments of $0.1133 in November and December 2022.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -34, Dow Jones -274, NASDAQ -103,  and Russell 2000 -22. (as of 8:08 a.m. EDT). Europe lower and Asia higher ex Shanghai.  VIX Futures are at 29.35 from 28.25 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 29.07 from 30.10 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher with Natural Gas lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.681% from 3.595%yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $20,094 from $19,954 yesterday morning and is lower by -0.27% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Financial, Energy, Industrials, Basic Materials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners:  None of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  None of note.
  • Six Month Winners: None of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

“Fill my eyes with that double vision, no disguise for that double vision” – Foreigner.  Yup – one two punch with back to back blast off days!  Broad rally that had most indexes over 3%.  The dollar was down (UUP -1.37%).

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: RGP of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: STZ, MKC, CAG, ANGO of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: RPM +0.14, HELE +0.08.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: LW.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: WELL, SGH, SCHN, HELE of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: RLGT +7%.
  • Gap Down: KORE -9%.

Insider Action: BRZE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: TSLA, F, GS, ABNB, BNGO, MS, CCL, RCL  (CNBC)
  • Five Things To Know Before Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  U.S. Mortgage Rates Hit 16 Year High. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Elon Musk Revives Twitter Bid. (Bloomberg)
  • WTO predicts a slowdown in global trade. (WSJ)
  • Saudi Arabia wants to cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day while others in OPEC+ are not so sure. (WSJ)
  • European Union to introduce new Russian sanctions including an oil price cap. (Politico)
  • 14% of car buyers are paying over $1,000 a month up from 6% last year. (CNBC)
  • U.S. aims to help Taiwan to become a weapon’s depot to fight off China. (NYT)
  • U.S. national debt hit $31 trillion and higher rates could add another trillion over the next 10 years. (NYT)
  • Blackstone (BX) may buy $5 to $10 billion in assets from Emerson Electric (EMR). (Bloomberg)
  • Investor Carl Icahn purchased shares in Twitter (TWTR) ahead of Musk returning to the table, picked up some pocket change of $250 million

Moving Average Update:

  • Green shoots – Day 2.  Score jumps to 45% from 25%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The First Lady depart the White House en route Joint Base Andrews, 10:15 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady depart Joint Base Andrews en route Fort Myers, Florida, 10:35 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady arrive in Fort Myers, Florida, 12:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady survey storm-ravaged areas via helicopter en route Fishermans Wharf, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady receive an operational briefing by federal, local, and state officials on current response and recovery efforts, 2:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady meet with small business owners and local residents impacted by Hurricane Ian and thank Federal, state, and local officials, 2:35 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks to reaffirm his commitment to supporting the people of Florida as they recover and rebuild from the devastating storm; The First Lady will attend these remarks, 3:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady depart Fort Myers, Florida en route Joint Base Andrews, 4:40 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady depart Joint Base Andrews en route the White House, 7:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady arrive at the White House, 7:10 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
    • Fell 14.2% vs -3.7% the week before, Purchases down 12.6%, vs -0.4% last, Refis down 17.8%, vs -10.9% last.
  • September ADP Employment Change Index is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at 198,000 from 132,000.
  • Int. Trade in Goods 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • PMI Composite Final 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at 56% from 56.9%.
  • EIA petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • OPEC+ meets and is likely to cut production. Just how much is the question?

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Research Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 4:00 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • Duolingo (DUOL) Acquires Gunner to Accelerate Product & Brand Development.
  • Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. (HFBL) of Louisiana Announces Agreement to Acquire Northwest Bancshares Corporation.
  • Genius Group (GNS) Acquires Revealed Films Inc. to Deliver Instructional Content for Budding Entrepreneurs.
  • SPS Commerce (SPSC) acquires mdf commerce’s InterTrade Systems for $49 mln in cash.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BMO Capital Markets Canadian High Yield Conference (10/05/22-10/06/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Credit Suisse Sustainability Week
  • Company Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AVAV, BCDA, ESTA, HCP
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • OpenText (OTEX) World 2022 (10/04/22-10/06/22)
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Edge Computing Expo North America 2022 (10/05/22-10/06/22)
    • Blockchain Expo North America
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • International Symposium on Microelectronics IMAPS 2022. (10/03/22-10/06/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: