CAPIS Morning Note – 1/29/21: Extreme Volatility Today

Thought of the Day: A client asked me yesterday why the crazy short squeeze stocks are not doing secondaries here. The answer is simple. Institutional Investors are the money in secondaries and then are not dumb enough to buy stocks at crazy levels. We note this morning AMC Entertainment (AMC) is thinking about a capital…

Thought of the Day: A client asked me yesterday why the crazy short squeeze stocks are not doing secondaries here. The answer is simple. Institutional Investors are the money in secondaries and then are not dumb enough to buy stocks at crazy levels. We note this morning AMC Entertainment (AMC) is thinking about a capital raise at these levels. We are a skeptic this might happen.

Breaking News: Dr. Fauci “we are going to be challenged with the South African strain – the virus will continue to mutate.”

Covid-19 Statistics: 

Total Cases 25,285,892 from 25,230,559

Deaths 423,645 from 419,634

New Tests 2,111,018 from 1,627,862

New Cases 155,333 from 151,675 with positivity rate of 7.3% (down 2.0)

Daily Deaths 4,011

Current Hospitalizations 104,303 from 107,444

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced or News:  Home Point Capital (HMPT) priced at $13 a share which is WAY below the expected range of $19 to $21.

Secondaries Priced:  EVLO  DCT  DX STIM OTLK DS   of note.

Notes Priced of note:  FUBO of note.

Common Stock filings: STIM EVLO ADMP DX DNMR  DS   of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: DNMR of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings:   RILY WAFD  of note.

Convertible Offering Files:   None of note.

Summary From The Trade Exchange bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box.

Earnings Out After The Close Of Note:

Beats: SWKS +1.27, HTH +0.85, HLI +0.79, SIGI +0.62, FICO +0.44, DLB +0.44, X +0.38, CE +0.37, ABCB +0.36, MATW +0.25, AX +0.20, EMN +0.19, RHI +0.16, WDC +0.16, FHI +0.14, V +0.14, RMD +0.13, BZH +0.10, AJG +0.10, NATI +0.08, PFG +0.05, TEAM +0.05, FFBC +0.05, JNPR +0.02, MITK +0.02, MDLZ +0.01, EGHT +0.01

Flat:  ETH +0.00

Misses: GBCI (0.11), OLN (0.08)

News After The Close:

Visa (V) decides to not offer guidance post earnings.
Citadel Securities says they are not responsible for the stoppage of Gamestop (GME) trading.
Novavx (NVAX) was 89.3% effective in Pahse 3 trial for their Covid-19 vaccine in the U.K.
Robinhood to limit the buying in the story/shortsqueeze stocks that are causing extreme volatility.
House Financial Services Committee will hold hearing on short selling.
Elon Musk CEO of Tesla (TSLA) tweets that Tesla has used Shopify (SHOP).
Dividend Increases: CE FBP LHX VOYA PII  WTFC  SJW 

Split Announcement:

Raises Guidance: SWKS CE EMN

Lowers Guidance: LZB

Stock Buyback New Or Increase: V SWKS ARCB LHX 

Insider Buys:

Erlanger Valuelines: Volatility is on the rise. Updated 1/28.

Hourly Action – Updated 1/28 close. Indexes struggling 2:00 onward this week.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. Quick comment -Futures are all over the place so be careful today. At one point early morning the S&P 500 was lower by -45 points or -1.25%.

S&P 500 -7  Dow Jones Industrial Average -108   NASDAQ -38   Russell 2000 +9  . Fair values are lower. Asia and Europe lower. VIX is at 31.85 from 29.85 this morning in futures. VIX closed at  from 37.21 and the three month futures at from 35.73.

Gold and silver higher with copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $137.06 from $137.52 with the yield at 1.089% from 1.04%.

Positive Sectors On Thursday: All of note led by Financials, Materials and Industrials.

Negative Sectors On Thursday:  None of note.

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Energy, Materials, Healthcare and Financials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After the Close: none of note.

Monday Before the Open: TMO, OTIS, ON, AMG, ABG, MTSC of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beats: CHTR +1.11, LYB +0.86, CAT +0.63, ERIC +0.51, SYF +0.38, LLY +0.36, SF +0.35, BAH +0.21, SAP +0.13, CHD +0.07, HON +0.07, ROP +0.07, FBP +0.05, WY +0.04, LHX +0.04, JCI +0.02, CL +0.01, WETF +0.01

Flat: none

Misses: PSXP (0.47), PSX (0.17), CVX (0.09)

Still to Report: BMI, GNTX, MOG.A, PFS, ROLL

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 1/28 Close. 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap up:

GME +99%, BLCM +60%, AMC +53%, NVAX +35%, ALUS +29%, SWKS +12%, ERIC +11%, MSTR +10%, WDC +10%, ABCB +9%, RHI +8%, FHI +6%, FUBO +5%, HLI +4%, NATI +4%, MATW +4%

Gap down:

OTLK -18%, EVLO -12%, ADMP -11%, DS -11%, DLX -11%, DNMR -9%, STIM -8%, EGLE -6%, BZH -5%, JNPR -4%, DX -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

5 Things To Know Before The Open – (CNBC)

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – BIIB SWKS NVAX (CNBC)

Biggest Analyst Calls of The Day – BA NIO F DKNG (CNBC)

Covid Update –  Southwest Airlines loses money for the first time since 1972. (CNBC)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) effectiveness with their Covid-19 vaccine is 66% and is selling off. Remember this is a single dose shot. (CNBC)

Senate Democrats hope to use reconciliation to reach a new stimulus bill by mid March. (NYT)

AstraZeneca (AZN) wants approval of the vaccine for Covid-19 by Japan in the next couple of weeks. (Reuters)

Robinhood drew on credit lines yesterday and then raised an additional $1 billion from investors. (Bloomberg)

Robinhood restricts cryptocurrency trading this morning. (CNBC)

Golf is forecasted to have its best growth year in 20 years due to restrictions put in place by Covid-19. (WSJ)

Moderna (MRNA) up 30% on Johnson & Johnson news on less effective vaccine.

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 1/28 close. Overall confidence moves from 83% to 50%.

Bold means a change from prior day.


The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, Oval Office, 9:00 a.m. EST

Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 10:00 a.m. EST

The President and The Vice President receive an economic briefing with confirmed Secretary of the Treasury, 11:00 a.m. EST

The President has lunch with The Vice President, Private Dining Room, 12:30 p.m. EST

The President departs the White House en route Bethesda, Maryland, South Lawn, 1:45 p.m. EST

The President visits Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, 2:05 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve Dallas President Robert Kaplan speaks at 1:00 p.m. EST.

Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks at 5:25 p.m. EST.


December Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to -0.5% from -0.4%.

January Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 58 from 59.5.

December Pending Home Sales is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to improve to -0.5% from -2.6%.

January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final) is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to remain at 79.l

$62 Billion of 7 Year Notes auctioned at 1:00 p.m. EST.

 TAK (Investor Meeting) 

Sellside: Cowen Gene Therapy:CMC & Regulatory Summit (1/29)

Industry Conferences: World Conference on Lung Cancer (1/27-1/31)

M&A Activity:

Upgrades & Downgrades of Note This Morning: Note that downgrades are increasing first two weeks of the year.

Thursday Recommendations