CAPIS Morning Note -1/21/22: Two Out Of Three Ain’t Bad But It Was For Netflix. Futures Lower.

Overnight Summary: Asia took the lead from weakness in U.S. markets on Thursday. Europe is struggling as well after December retail sales fell -3.7% versus estimates of a drop by -0.6% . S&P 500 Futures hit a low around 10:00 p.m. EST  at 4430 and have been climbing since to where they are now up to…

Overnight Summary: Asia took the lead from weakness in U.S. markets on Thursday. Europe is struggling as well after December retail sales fell -3.7% versus estimates of a drop by -0.6% . S&P 500 Futures hit a low around 10:00 p.m. EST  at 4430 and have been climbing since to where they are now up to 4455 and at -20 (-0.45%) at 7:30 a.m. EST.

Commentary: Last night Meatloaf passed away at 74. For those of us in our  50s, his music was part of our teen ages. Today we mourn his passing with a song for Netflix, “Two out of Three Ain’t Bad”.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: NFLX +0.51 TCBI +0.28 OZK +0.20 +NBHC +0.13 ASB +0.07 PPG +0.06 ISRG +0.02 CSX +0.01 LLNW +0.01 PBCT +0.01 
  • Flat:
  • Misses: SIVB -0.01

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes: None of note.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:  of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.
  • Note Offerings Filed:  of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: LLNW +6% KURA +4% 
    • Trading Down:  NFLX -20% RBBN -17% ISRG -5% SNPO -5% ROKU -5% DIS -4% PPG -4%
  • News Items After The Close:
    • Netflix (NFLX) saw net adds of 8.28 million versus estimates of 8.50 million in prior guidance. Down -20% in premarket.
    • Peloton (PTON) to delay opening of Ohio factory to 2024. (NY Post)
    • SVB Financial (SIVB) raises average loan growth guidance.
    • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) sees lower procedure growth of 11-15% due to Covid-19 limiting access to the operating room and shortage of hospital workers.
    • Robinhood (HOOD) begins roll-out of crypto Wallets to first 1,000 customers.
    • Positive Guidance:  PTON ASX
    • Negative Guidance: NFLX PPG ECL
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News: 
    • Perdoceo Education (PRDO) names Andrew Hurst as CEO replacing Todd Nelson who becomes Executive Chairman.
    • Associated Bank (ASB) sees current CFO Christopher Del Moral-Niles to retire later this year. The bank will begin a search.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • ST approves a $500 million share repurchase program.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements: 
    • NBHC raises to $0.23 a quarter from $0.22 per share.
    • ED raised to $0.79 from $0.73 a share.
    • TRGP increase dividend to $0.35 per share an increase of 350%.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +16 , Dow Jones +104 , NASDAQ +113 and Russell 2000 -9.44. Asia lower ex Hang Seng and Europe lower. VIX Futures are at 25.55 from 23.40 yesterday morning. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $127.27 from $128.52  yesterday with yields at 1.778% from 1.829% yesterday morning. Bitcoin at $38,472 from $42,067 yesterday morning and -10.00%. As of 8:05 a.m. EST.

Thursday’s Action – 01/20 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: All.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Financials and Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Materials, Consumer Defensive and Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Financials and Technology of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Real Estate, and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy, Financials and Materials of note.

Indexes again pulled back to the downside in an afternoon rout.  Bonds rallied. Updated 01/20/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: BOH, CBU, HAL,PHG.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: ALLY +0.05 SLB +0.02 HBAN +0.01 INFO +0.01
  • Flat: 
  • Misses: 
  • Still to Report:  FHB

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 01/20/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: VMAC +16%, PTON +6%, KURA +4%, LLNW +4%
  • Gap Down: NFLX -20%, RBBN -6%, ISRG -6%, SNPO -6%, ROKU -5%, ECL -4%, IDT -4%, DIS -4%, PPG -3%

Insider Action: No Insider buying with dumb short selling or smart short sellers with insider buys. 01/20/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: SLB NFLX CSX. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Covid-19 Cases fall to 768,190 from 855,805 cases a week ago and  yet Hospitalizations rise to 143,874 from 128,222. (CDC)
  • Democrats in disarray over Build Back Better (B3). (Bloomberg)
  • Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) says to start over on B3 and and deal with Covid-19, national debt and inflation. (NYT)
  • Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to meet with Russian counterparts today over Ukraine. (NYT)
  • PetSmart may go public through a SPAC merger. (Bloomberg)
  • Serbia eliminates RIO access to lithium. (Reuters)
  • Boeing (BA) completed test flights of the 737 Max Flight in China. (Reuters)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at Peloton (PTON) stops production of fitness equipment as inventory piles up. Instagram and TikTok began testing paid subscriptions.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score moves to 6% from 12%. Updated 01/20/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • President Biden retreats to Delaware with nothing on the schedule as he had a “terrible, no good, very bad week”.

Economic: 

  • December Leading Economic Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to 0.8% from 1.1%.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 p.m. EST.

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • None of note. Next week FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee) meets. Tuesday and Wednesday.

M&A Activity: 

  • None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: Needham Growth Conference.
  • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
      • CIBC Western Institutional Conference
  • Company Meetings: 
  • Fireside Chat: MLSS  of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ALNY
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings: 
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

       

Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades: