CAPIS Morning Note – 09/28/23: The Roof Is On Fire, We Don’t Need No Water … Let Bond Yields Rip Higher

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.02% at 4274.51 from Tuesday lower by -1.47% at 4273.53. The overnight high was hit at 4326.50 at 8:50 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4302.25 at 5:20 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 24 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.02% at 4274.51 from Tuesday lower by -1.47% at 4273.53. The overnight high was hit at 4326.50 at 8:50 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4302.25 at 5:20 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 24 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 22.10 from 21.60 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-August average was 21.10 from 18.81 in May through July and the August average was 26.21. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +1.50 points which is +0.03% at  7:15 a.m. EDT.

Interesting Options Set Ups:  We keep seeing posts in the media on how put/call ratios are getting excessive. GoodMorningWallst’s Chartroom does track options on a stock level and also rolling up to sector.  On a macro level we have seen put activity a lot higher, but on a stock level, there are certainly individual names where the pendulum has swung displaying too much negative sentiment on a short-term basis (i.e. a lot of put activity).  The screen to highlight put activity far outweighs call activity.  Below is a subset sorted by Market Cap for potential short-term turnarounds due to put activity being extreme:

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: MU +0.08, WOR +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: CNXC (0.14), JEF (0.11), FUL (0.08) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • VS Media Limited (VSME) Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • AltC Acquisition Corp. (ALCC) and Oklo Announce Filing of Registration Statement on Form S-4 in Connection with Proposed Business Combination
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • IMVT: Prices $450M Public Offering and Concurrent Private Placement. 7.37M shares public offering at $38 per share. 4.5M shares private placement to ROIV at $38 per share.
    • COTY: Announces Pricing of Global Offering and Admission to Listing and Trading of Class A Common Stock on the Professional Segment of Euronext Paris.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • GOLF: Announces Pricing of Offering of Senior Notes.
    • PPC: Announces Pricing Of Senior Notes Due 2034.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BMRA: Filed Form S-3.. $20,000,000 Common Stock.
    • GNSS: Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Roth Bookmanager)
    • KRP: Files for 21,566,025 common units by selling unitholders.
    • MCOM: Filed Form 8K.. issued 28.5 million shares to YA II PN Ltd. in a series of takedowns.
    • OPRA: Announces Proposed Secondary Follow-on Public Offering of American Depositary Shares.
    • SLNO: Announces proposed public offering of common stock and/or pre-funded warrants and a concurrent private placement of common stock and/or pre-funded warrants.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ASTR: Filed Form S-3/A .. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • RNLX: Filed Form S-3.. $200 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • PINE: Filed Form S-3.. $350 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • NI: Decided to postpone at its option the remarketing of up to 862,500 shares of its Series C Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: GRTS +43%, PTON +17%, SLNO +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: OPRA -6%, MU -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: MU, PTON, JEF, FUL, NAPA (CNBC)
    • Lululemon (LULU) Strikes Deal With Peloton (PTON) for Fitness Content, Will Ax Mirror Device. (Bloomberg)
    • Micron (MU) sees nine-figure data-center sales in 2024, but another quarter of negative margins. (MarketWatch)
    • Costco (COST) CEO says more younger people are signing up for memberships. (CNBC)
    • Costco (COST) is selling out of small gold bars ‘within a few hours,’ CFO says. (MarketWatch)
    • Jefferies Financial (JEF) Shares Decline 3.4% After 3Q Revenue Declines. (MarketWatch)
    • Apple (AAPL) is ordered to face Apple Pay antitrust lawsuit. (Reuters)
    • Johnson Controls (JCI) reports cybersecurity incident; incident has caused disruption to parts of co’s business operations. (MarketWatch)
    • CNN Fear and Greed Index at 25 Extreme Fear reading.
    • Uber (UBER) Announces New Chief Financial Officer. (MarketWatch)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • China Liberal Education Holdings Limited (CLEU) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • BowFlex Parent, Nautilus, Inc. (NLS) Announces Receipt of Notice of Non-Compliance with NYSE Trading Share Price Listing Rule.
    • GameStop (GME) Announces Election of Ryan Cohen as Chief Executive Officer.
    • and they’re back…..IMAC Holdings, Inc. (BACK) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Listing Requirements.
    • IAMGOLD (IAG) names Bruno Lemelin as COO.
    • The Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA) announces that its CEO is retiring.
    • Sony Playstation Chief Jim Ryan Is Stepping Down. (MarketWatch)
    • VIQ Solutions (VQS) Announces Delisting from Nasdaq and Director Resignation.
    • Worthington (WOR) announces that John Blystone, its long-time Lead Independent Director has been named Executive Chairman.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • CNH Industrial (CNHI) Periodic Report on $300 Million Buyback Program.
    • KMX: Intend to resume share repurchases in the third quarter of this year.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Reverse Splits: SYBX, SPRC
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Concentrix (CNXC) Raises Quarterly Dividend 10 Percent to $0.3025 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note:
    • Williams-Sonoma’s (WSM) President and CEO sold 100,000 shares.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -2, Dow Jones +9,  NASDAQ -29, and Russell 2000 -2.  (as of 7:59 a.m. EDT).  Asia is lower ex South Korea while Europe is higher ex the FTSE this morning. VIX Futures are at 18.05 from 18.45 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper are higher this morning reversing three days of selling. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.647% from 4.503% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $26,486 from $26,555 yesterday, higher by +0.92%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Communication Services, Industrials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy and Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Energy, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

The S&P 500 ended the day higher—just barely. But after the week that stocks just had, even a tiny increase can feel like good news.   Stocks have broadly fallen since last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, when U.S. central bankers raised their interest-rate forecasts for next year. Investors are also weighing the impact of higher energy prices on inflation, which the Fed’s interest-rate increases this year have sought to tame, and a potential government shutdown.   The S&P 500 closed nearly flat. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.2%.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: 

  • Friday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: JBL +0.13, ACN +0.06 of note.
  • Flat: KMX of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: MU, FUL of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: BNOX +40%, GRTS +30%, MNOV +18%, PTON +13%, GME +6%, KRP +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: CNXC -6%, MU -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg) 
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Evergrande Halts Trading After Founder Put Under Police Control. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Second Most Shared Story: Oil Touches $95 with Shrinking Inventories Fanning Fresh Rally. (Bloomberg)
  • Bond selloff pushes treasuries to new 2007 peak: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • UAW threatens to strike more plants if no progress. (Bloomberg)
  • Republican Debate Recap. (CNBC)
  • Gamestop (GME) names Ryan Cohen CEO immediately. (CNBC)
  • Delta (DAL) CEO says airline went too far on changes to Sky Miles and while make changes to ease backlash. (CNBC)
  • CarMax (KMX) misses quarterly estimates, stock off -9%. (Reuters)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace:   EU ends Human Brain Project after a decade. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily:  Presidential politics of autoworkers strike. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News:  Travis King in custody of U.S. after North Korea returns him. (Podcast) 
  • Bloomberg:   Why the Pound is headed for trouble again? (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: It will take a 30-40% meltdown before the Fed acts. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 11%. We showed SPX chart yesterday and the gap to hit 200 dma, below is the NASDAQ which has a lot father to fall to touch the 200 day.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing (8:00 AM Local), 11:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks honoring the legacy of Senator John McCain, and the work we must do together to strengthen our democracy (10:45 AM Local), 1:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a campaign reception (12:45 PM Local), 3:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Phoenix, Arizona en route to Joint Base Andrews (2:00 PM Local), 5:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route the White House, 10:05 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 10:15 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Corporate Profits 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Q2 GDP (Third Estimate) is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to stay at 2.1%.
  • August Pending Home Sales is also due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to drop to -1.0% from  0.9%.
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • KC Fed Mfg Index 11:00 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee 9:00 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Lisa D. Cook 1:00 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell 4:00 p.m. EDT (participates in a Town Hall with educators)
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 7:00 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News: 

  • Chico’s FAS (CHS) to be acquired by Sycamore Partners for $7.60 per share in cash.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: DM, KLR, LITB, MPRA, OST, SAR
  • Fireside Chat:
    • OPTT – CEO of Exploration Ventures, and Ocean Power Technologies Advisor, Terry Garcia to participate in Fireside Chat with Water Tower Research on Thursday, September 28, 2023, at 2:00 PM EDT.
    • Affirm Holdings (AFRM) CFO Fireside Chat with Deutsche Bank 2023
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: DSGR, ERIC, FLS, ICE, INTU, MRVI, NCNO, PM
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day:
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: