CAPIS Morning Note – 09/27/22: S&P 500 Rebounds After Hitting New Low For 2022, Will It Hold?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 3655.04( lower by -1.05%) from Friday at 3693.23 (lower by -1.72%). The overnight high of 3725 was hit at 3:30 a.m. EDT. The low of 3662 was hit at 4:10 p.m. EDT, a range of 63 points high to low which is above the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 3655.04( lower by -1.05%) from Friday at 3693.23 (lower by -1.72%). The overnight high of 3725 was hit at 3:30 a.m. EDT. The low of 3662 was hit at 4:10 p.m. EDT, a range of 63 points high to low which is above the recent range of 45. At 7:25 a.m. EDT the current price was 3711 which is +41 points, 1.12%. Currently, at 7:55 a.m. EDT the S&P 500 is now -16.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Welsbach Technology Metals Acquisition Corp. (WTMA) Announces Extension to Business Combination Deadline.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BACK: Filed Form S-3.. 10,328,948 Shares of Common Stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CCJ: Filed Form F-10 .. $1.5 Billion Mixed Shelf.
    • JZXN: Filed Form F-3 .. $200 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • PTN: Filed Form 424B3.. $100 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • CNX: Announces Closing of $500 Million Senior Notes Offering.
    • IP: Announces Price Determination with Respect to Cash Tender Offer for Certain of its Outstanding Notes for up to $497.658 Million Combined Aggregate Principal Amount.
    • SLF: Announces intention to redeem Series 2017-1 Subordinated Unsecured 2.75% Fixed/Floating Debentures.
    • WU: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Debt Security Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: NLS +6%.
    • Trading Down: None of note..
  • News Since The Close:
    • Ford (F) Asks for New Trial After $1.7 Billion Jury Verdict in Truck Rollover Lawsuit. (WSJ)
    • Biogen Inc. (BIIB) Agrees to Pay $900 Million to Settle Allegations Related to Improper Physician Payments. (DOJ)
    • Splunk (SPLK) looks for new CFO as Child leaves for new gig. (MarketWatch)
    • Science Applications (SAIC) awarded $757 million firm-fixed-price U.S. Army contract.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • H.B. Fuller (FUL) CEO Jim Owens to retire.
    • FLEETCOR (FLT) Announces Departure of Chief Financial Officer.
    • Redwood Trust (RWT) names Fred Matera as CIO.
    • Shoe Carnival (SCVL) CFO W. Kerry Jackson to retire.
    • Southwest Airlines (LUV) announces leadership changes.
    • Splunk (SPLK) Announces CFO Transition. (MarketWatch)
    • Waldencast plc (WALD) names Philippe Gautier CFO and COO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) Board Authorizes Repurchase of Up to 6 Million Shares of Common Stock. (see Dividends)
    • BeautyHealth (SKIN) Announces $200 Million Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) Announces New $200 Million Share Repurchase Authorization.
  • Stock Splits or News: 
    • KPRX trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.71 Per Share, 9% Increase From Prior Quarter.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500+53, Dow Jones+352, NASDAQ +190, and Russell 2000 +28. (as of 8:04 a.m. EDT). Europe lower ex France and Asia lower.  VIX Futures are at 30.10 from 30.75yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 31.14 from 32.29 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher and Natural Gas higher as well. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.821% from 3.775% yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $20,220 from $18,850  yesterday morning and is higher by +5.29% this morning. S&P 500 up 55 at 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Energy, Utilities, Basic Materials, Financial, Healthcare, Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners:  none of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Utilities of note.
  • Six Month Winners: None of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Markets attempted to be positive but the selling continued through the afternoon.  Erlanger Value Line support actually did give some support at the 1pm timeframe.  Russell 2000 down 1.41%.  TLT was down 1.91% to close at 103.68.

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: CALM, PRGS of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: PAYX, CTAS, XRAY, THO of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DAVA +0.02, UNFI +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: CBRL, JBL, NEOG, SNX.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: AVNT of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: NLS +8%, STNG +4%, EGY +4%.
  • Gap Down: None of note.

Insider Action: HIW sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: KDP LCID CSX LI  (CNBC)
  • Five Things To Know Before Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Goldman and Blackrock Sour on Stocks as Recession Risks Rise (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Fake Meat Sales Drop as “Too Woke”. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia is to formally annex parts of Ukraine this week. (NYT)
  • Nord Stream damage is “unprecedented” and cannot predict when it will resume flowing. (Bloomberg)
  • World Bank cuts China growth forecast. (WSJ)
  • Senate to vote on Continuing Resolution today in the Senate. (NYT)
  • JetBlue (JBLU) and American (AAL) go to Justice Department in Antitrust fight. (CNBC)
  • Bond Manager Jeffrey Gundlach begins to buy bonds. (Bloomberg)
  • Lumber back to pre-Covid price levels. (WSJ)
  • Rents drop after two years of rises. (WSJ)
  • Ford (F) wants a new trial in rollover case after a $1.7 billion verdict. (WSJ)
  • Bankrupt Crypto lender Voyager to sell assets to FTX for $1.4 billion. (CNBC)
  • TSMC  (TSM) expects some clients to scale back orders in 2023. (Digitimes)
  • Tesla (TSLA) expects a high volume of deliveries at end of Q3. (Electrek)

Moving Average Update:

  • Fifth day in a row red.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Briefing, 10:30 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell, 12:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks focused on lowering health care costs and protecting and strengthening Medicare and Social Security, 1:15 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • August Durable Orders is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to come in at -0.1% from 0.0%.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • FHFA HPI 9:00 a.m. EDT
  • S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 17% from 18.6%.
  • September Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 105 from 103.20.
  • August New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 500,000 from 511,000.
  • Richmond Fed Mfg Index 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans 6:15 a.m. EDT

    • Fed’s Evans: Year-End Consensus View On Rates Is 4.25% To 4.5% – CNBC EU – Inflation High, Getting It Under Control Is Job 1. (MarketWatch)
  • Federal Research Chair Jerome Powell 7:30 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard 9:55 a.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Cantor Fitzgerald 8th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2022
    • Guggenheim Nantucket Therapeutics Conference
    • Jefferies Office of the CFO Summit

      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Credit Suisse 2022 Education & Healthcare Conference (09/26/22-09/30/22)
        • Truist Securities Energy Meeting Circuit
  • Company Meetings: GIS
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AFRM, HUM, PATH, VZLA, XFOR
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Intel (INTC) Innovation 2022. (09/27/22-09/28/22)
    • EnerSys (ENS) Tech Talk on Thin Plate Pure Lead (TPPL) Technology
  • Industry Meetings:
    • UiPath FORWARD 5 2022 (09/27/22-09/29/22)
    • American Academy of Ophthalmology
    • BioProcess International Conference and Exhibition 2022 (09/27/22-09/30/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • RAS 4th Annual Targeted Drug Development Summit 2022 (09/26/22-09/28/22)
        • Ion Implantation Technology (IIT) 2022 (09/25/22-09/29/22)
        • International Conference on Biofabrication 2022 (09/25/22-09/28/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: