CAPIS Morning Note – 09/26/23: Stock Selloff Restarts This Morning, S&P 500 May Test 4300 This Week

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.40% at 4337.44 from Friday lower by -0.23% at 4320.06. The overnight high was hit at 4383.50 at 5:00 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4344 at 3:20 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 39 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.40% at 4337.44 from Friday lower by -0.23% at 4320.06. The overnight high was hit at 4383.50 at 5:00 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4344 at 3:20 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 39 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 20.50 from 19.20 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-August average was 21.10 from 18.81 in May through July and the August average was 26.21. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -18.25 points which is -0.42% at  7:10 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: THO +0.73 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • RNAZ: $8 Million offering at… $0.51.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AGLE: Form 8K.. Biologics Master Services Agreement — WuXi Biologics (Hong Kong) Limited.
    • COTY: Global Offering of Class A Common Stock and Listing on the Professional Segment of Euronext Paris.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • IMMX: Filed Form S-3.. 5,154,737 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholder.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • FLUX: Filed Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • OGI: Filed Form F-10 .. $500,000,000 – Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • STR: Announces $500 Million Offering of Senior Notes.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: None of note.
    • Trading Down: COTY -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Thor Industries (THO) shares down as forecast comes up short. (MarketWatch)
    • Blue Origin to name former Amazon (AMZN) exec Dave Limp as CEO. (MarketWatch)
    • Hedge Funds Cut Stock Leverage at Fastest Pace Since 2020 Crash. (Bloomberg)
    • F: Halts work on $3.5 billion EV battery plant in Michigan. (MarketWatch)
    • BAE Systems (BAESY) awarded $319 million U.S. Defense Information Systems Agency contract.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • NYSE to Commence Delisting Proceedings: SUNL DMS
    • MI NFT receives NYSE notice for non-compliance.
    • AngloGold Ashanti (AU) completes the primary listing of its ordinary shares on the NYSE and commences trading.
    • Envestnet (ENV) appoints Joshua B. Warren as CFO.
    • InMed Pharmaceuticals (INM) receives Nasdaq notice for non-compliance.
    • Inspirato (ISPO) Announces CEO Transition.
    • Invitae (NVTA) Announces Appointment of Finance Veteran Ana Schrank as CFO.
    • Shoe Carnival (SCVL) Announces Appointment of Patrick Edwards as Chief Financial Officer. (MarketWatch)
  • Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. (AKA) Announces Board’s Approval of Reverse Stock Split Ratio and Effectiveness Date.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • JinkoSolar (JKS) declared a cash dividend of $0.375 per share.
    • T-Mobile (TMUS) declares first cash dividend since board approval. (MarketWatch)
    • Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend on its 6.75% Series A Convertible Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -16, Dow Jones -119,  NASDAQ -55, and Russell 2000 -6.  (as of 7:55 a.m. EDT).  Asia is lower while Europe is lower this morning ex the FTSE. VIX Futures are at 17.85 from 17.75 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper are lower this morning for a second day in a row. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.507% from 4.491% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $26,190 from $26,048 yesterday, lower by -0.42%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Industrials, Healthcare, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Defensive of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy and Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Energy, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Bond yields continued upward, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury settling at the highest level since 2007.  Stock markets edged higher on Monday after major indexes had their worst weekly performance since March. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1%, or 43 points.  The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.103 percentage point to settle at 4.541%, up from 4.438% on Friday. The yield has risen and prices have declined in 15 of the past 20 weeks.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: FERG +0.33, UNFI +0.10 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: CTAS, SNX of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: FERG of note.
  • Negative Guidance: UNFI of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: IMVT* +40%, ROIV* +12% of note.
  • Gap Down: OGI -4%, COTY -4% of note.

 * Immunovant (IMVT) and Roivant (ROIV) announces positive initial IMVT-1402 Phase 1 SAD and 300 mg Subcutaneous MAD Results

Insider Action: LGND, SPRY sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  HHH sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg) 
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Bond Traders Roiled By Fed See US Shutdown as Next Big Wild Card. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Second Most Shared Story:  Dimon Warns World Not Ready For 7% Fed Rate: Times of India. (Bloomberg)
  • Bond Selloff pauses: Stocks retreat: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • President Biden in an unprecedented move will walk the picket line with UAW workers and take on big business. (CNN)
  • Hunter Biden, son of President Biden, sued Rudy Giuliani over computer fraud and data access related to the laptop. (CNBC)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace: What’s happening in the Google Antitrust Trial? It is kind of a black box. (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily: Senator Menendez and his honey pot, gold bars and wads of cash. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News:  Thousands flee Nagornoh-Karabakh in exodus of ethnic- Armenians. (Podcast) 
  • Bloomberg: NYC tries supervised release instead of jail. Other cities watching. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 14% for the 3rd day.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews, 9:55 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to Wayne County, Michigan, 10:15 a.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Wayne County, Michigan, 11:35 a.m. EDT
    • The President joins the picket line and stands in solidarity with the men and women of UAW as they fight for a fair share of the value they helped create, 12:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Wayne County, Michigan en route to San Francisco, California, 2:35 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Santa Clara County, California (3:55 PM Local), 6:55 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a campaign reception (6:30 PM Local), 9:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Santa Clara County, California en route to San Francisco, California (7:35 PM Local), 10:35 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in San Francisco, California (7:55 PM Local), 10:55 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • July S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to 0.5% from -1.2%.
  • FHFA HPI 9:00 a.m. EDT
  • September Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 105 from 106.10.
  • August New Home Sales are also due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 695,000 from 714,000.
  • Richmond Fed Mfg Index 10:00 a.m. EDT
    API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT
  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Is due out for the period of August 29th through September 13th. During this period, the S&P 500 has fallen by -0.67%.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 1:30 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News: 

  • B. Riley Financial (RILY) to purchase 3.7 million shares of bebe stores, will increase stake to 76%.
  • FAT Brands (FAT) Announces Acquisition of Smokey Bones Barbecue Chain.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: