CAPIS Morning Note – 09/19/23: FOMC Begins Meeting Today, Futures Little Changed

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.07% at 4453.53 from Friday lower by -1.22% at 4450.32. The overnight high was hit at 4509.50 at 6:45 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4496.25 at 2:25 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 14 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.07% at 4453.53 from Friday lower by -1.22% at 4450.32. The overnight high was hit at 4509.50 at 6:45 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4496.25 at 2:25 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 14 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 19.50 from 20  down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-August average was 21.10 from 18.81 in May through July and the August average was 26.21. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by 4.750 points which is 0.11% at  7:10 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: SFIX (0.03) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • CART: Pricing of Initial Public Offering.. 22,000,000 shares of its common stock @$30. (MarketWatch)
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Finnovate Acquisition Corp. (FNVT) Receives Nasdaq Deficiency Notice Due to Delayed Filing of Form 10-Q.
    • TradeUP Acquisition Corp. (UPTD) Announces Extension of the Deadline for an Initial Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • LLAP: Announces Pricing of $32.5 Million Public Offering.
    • VMAR: Pricing of $1.5 Million Private Placement.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • LNT: Prices Debt Offering.
    • PMT: Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Senior Notes.
    • VTLE: Prices Upsized Offering of $900 Million of Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ATXI: Filed Form S-1.. To sell units.
    • DBGI: Filed Form S-1.. 32,000 Shares of Common Stock 481,875 Shares of Common Stock issuable upon exercise of Pre-funded Warrants and accompanying 513,875 Shares of
      Common Stock.
    • LLAP: To offer shares in public offering.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • ALUR: Files for 55,005,366 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
    • INDI: Files for 10,070,008 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AMPE: Filed Form S-3.. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • JLL: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • CVE: Announces early tender results and increase of tender offers for certain outstanding series of notes.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • BIOL: Closing of $4.5 Million Underwritten Public Offering of Series J Convertible Redeemable Preferred Stock and Warrants.
    • NIO: Proposed Offering of US$1 Billion Convertible Senior Notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: None of note.
    • Trading Down: LLAP -24%, NIO -5% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • UAW Says It’s Still Waiting for Counteroffers From Detroit Three. (Bloomberg)
    • Block (SQ) CEO Alyssa Henry to depart, effective October 2.
    • GM will layoff 2,000+ employees in Kansas as early as today.
    • U.S. National Debt Tops $33 Trillion for First Time The fiscal milestone comes as Congress is facing a new spending fight with a government shutdown looming. (NY Times)
    • Norfolk Southern (NSC) announces homeowner compensation plan after East Palestine derailment. (MarketWatch)
    • Enersys (ENS) awarded $91.8 million multi-year contract to supply its Thin Plate Pure Lead batteries to the U.S. Navy.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Agree Realty (ADC) promotes Nicole Witteveen to COO.
    • AnaptysBio (ANAB) appoints John Orwin as Chairman.
    • AutoZone (AZO) Announces Organizational Changes.
    • Bausch Health (BHC) Announces CFO Transition Plan.
    • BP appoints Kate Thomson as CFO.
    • Enviri Corporation (NVRI) to appoint Tom Vadaketh CFO.
    • Eversource Energy (ES) elects Paul Chodak as Executive VP and COO.
    • Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE) Announces CFO Appointments.
    • IM Cannabis (IMCC) Announces CFO Departure.
    • Rambus (RMBS) Added to PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX).
    • Snap (SNAP) names Patrick Spence, CEO of Sonos to its board of directors.
    • SuperCom (SPCB) Receives Nasdaq Letter on Minimum Bid Requirements.
    • Timber Pharmaceuticals (TMBR) Announces NYSE Acceptance of Plan to Regain Listing Compliance.
    • Ulta Beauty (ULTA) COO Kecia Steelman also to become President.
    • ZEV: NYSE to Commence Delisting Proceedings Against Lightning eMotors, Inc..
  • Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • AXLA trading reverse split price.
    • Cepton (CPTN) to Consolidate Shares with 1-for-10 Reverse Stock Split.
    • Fathom Digital Manufacturing (FATH) Announces 1-for-20 Reverse Stock Split.
    • TTOO Reverse split vote approval.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Fortis Inc. (FTS) Announces New $25 Billion Five Year Capital Outlook and 4.4% Increase in Fourth Quarter Dividend Marking 50 Years of Dividend Increases.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +5, Dow Jones +21,  NASDAQ +17, and Russell 2000 +5.  (as of 7:55 a.m. EDT).  Asia is lower while Europe is higher this morning ex Germany. VIX Futures are at 15.45 from 15.76 yesterday.  Gold and Silver are higher while Copper is lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.319% from 4.339%  yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $27,123 from $27,179 yesterday, higher by  1.16%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Communication Services of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, Healthcare, Basic Materials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical  of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Energy, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Industrial, of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

U.S. stocks inched higher Monday, with technology shares stabilizing after slumping at the end of last week.  Overall, it was a subdued trading session in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite all rose less than 0.1%.  In the absence of major catalysts, traders took the opportunity to scoop up some stocks that fell last week.   (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: AZO +1.18, APOG +0.24, DAVA +0.12 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: X, APOG of note.
  • Negative Guidance: STLD, SFIX of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: INDI +7% of note.
  • Gap Down: LLAP -17%, RKLB -16%, SFIX -6%, NIO -5% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: CCL, RCL, DE, CNHI, CVS, DELL, SMCI, PLNT (CNBC)
  • 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg) 
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Global Economy Poised to Slow as Rate Hikes Bite, OECD Says (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story: MBAs Are Spurning McKinsey to Buy Small Companies (Bloomberg)
  • AAPL:  “We performed a number of channel checks for Iphone 15 pre-orders in China. Overall unit orders were down 5% vs. last year with 4% lower pro mix on a Y/Y basis. We view this as a better indicator for demand vs. delivery times, which are influenced by production shortages and supply chain snags.” (Barclays)
  • INTC Digitimes sources say, the China-specific Intel chip is in huge demand, and this “in a situation similar to that NVDA has seen for its AI GPUs.” (Digitimes article)
  • ARRY Added to BofA US 1 List.

  • TGT intends to hire almost 100k seasonal team members this holiday seasons.
  • Americans Plan To Keep Cutting Back On Spending Through The Holidays, New Survey Says (CNBC) – More than three quarters of all U.S. adults surveyed (76%) plan to cut back on spending for non-essential items.
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace: Strong economic headwinds are buffeting the Fed (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: Trudeau says India may be linked to Sikh leader’s death in Canada (Podcast) 
  • NY Times The Daily: Inside Ukraine’s Drone Attacks on Russia (Podcast)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: What Do Striking US Auto Workers Want? (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 25%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 8:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks before the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a greet with the U.N. General Assembly President Dennis Francis of Trinidad and Tobago, 11:10 a.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a greet and guest book signing with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, 11:25 a.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a meeting with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, 11:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President hosts a meeting of the Central Asia 5 + 1, 1:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady host the Leader’s Reception, 7:15 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • August Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 1,435,000 from 1,452,000.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity and News:

  • Boston Scientific (BSX) Announces Agreement to Acquire Relievant Medsystems, Inc.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Banking and Insurance CEO Conference 2023 (09/19/23-09/21/23)
    • BMO Capital Markets Canadian Real Estate Conference
    • JP Morgan Emerging Markets Credit Conference 2023 (09/19/23-09/21/23)
    • Northland Institutional Investor Conference (09/19/23-09/20/23)
    • Piper Sandler Heartland Summit 2023 (09/19/23-09/20/23)
    • Raymond James Energy Supply Chain 2023
    • Stephens Bank Forum (09/19/23-09/20/23)
    • Stifel Immunology and Inflammation Summit (09/19/23-09/21/23)
    • Zelman Housing Summit
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: AIR, FBRX
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BENF, BNGO, DOOR, EVGO, FTS, INTC, IONQ, MRNS, MYGN, PHUN, PINS, PTLO, RVNC, VITL, WK, XENE
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: