CAPIS Morning Note – 09/15/22: Stocks Flat Into Several Economic Releases

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 3946.01 (higher by 0.34%) from 3932.69 (lower by -4.32%) from Tuesday. The overnight high of 3977 was hit at 10:05 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3951.50 at 6:45 a.m. EDT, a range of 26 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45….

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 3946.01 (higher by 0.34%) from 3932.69 (lower by -4.32%) from Tuesday. The overnight high of 3977 was hit at 10:05 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3951.50 at 6:45 a.m. EDT, a range of 26 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45. At 7:40 a.m. EDT the current price was 3945 which is -1 point. Currently, at 7:55 a.m. EDT the S&P 500 is now -4.

Breaking News: President Biden intervenes and ends a potential rail strike. (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • CRBG Corebridge Financial (NYSE) prices 80 mln share IPO at $21.00 per share, at the low end of the $21-24 expected range.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Kensington Capital Acquisition Corp. IV (KCAC.U) closes on its business combination, will begin trading as Amprius Technologies (AMPX) on Sep 15.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • AKRO: Prices offering of 7,692,308 shares of its common stock at $26.00 per share.
    • CCSI: Pricing of Secondary Offering of 500,000 Shares Held by Ziff.. 500K @$46
    • FWRG: Prices offering of 4.5 million shares of common stock at $15.50 per share.
    • IDYA: Prices offering of 7,619,048 shares of its common stock at $10.50 per share.
    • RYTM: Prices offering of 4.8 million shares of common stock at $26.00 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ACXP: Filed Form S-1.. 2,627,224 Shares of Common Stock.
    • AMPS: Announces Redemption of Public and Private Placement Warrants.
    • FTCI: Filed Form 424B5.. Up to $100,000,000 Common Stock.
    • FWBI: Filed Form S-1.. Up to $12,000,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • HL: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 1,190,000 shares of common stock.
    • IDYA: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. $80.0 million of shares.. JPM, Jefferies, Citi and Guggenheim bookmanagers.
    • LICY: Filed Form F-3.. Secondary Offering of 96,579,362 Common Shares.
    • NEE: Intends to sell $2.0 billion of equity units.
    • NM: $20 Million Tender Offer for Its Series G and Series H American Depositary Shares.
    • QNGY: Filed Form S-1.. Units consisting of shares of common stock and warrants.
    • RBBN: Filed Form S-3.. 92,807,928 Shares of Common Stock.
    • RYTM: Proposed Public Offering.. $100 million of shares of its common stock.. Cowen, Stifel and WFC Bookmanagers.
    • SPIR Spire Global Files Form S-3 Shelf Registration Statement.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • DDI: Filed Form F-3.. Up to 10,013,620 American Depositary shares Representing up to 500,681 Common Shares Offered by the Selling Shareholder.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • NERV: Filed Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: VLD +9%, DHR +4%, APA +4%.
    • Trading Down: RYTM -11%, IDYA -10%, ARNC -8%, RBBN -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: DHR, RYTM, NEE, ARNC (CNBC)
    • Danaher (DHR) to separate its Environmental & Applied Solutions segment to create an independent, publicly traded company. (MarketWatch)
    • U.S. Senate panel advances sweeping Taiwan security bill. (Reuters)
    • Expedia (EXPE), Williams-Sonoma (WSM) both name new CFOs as Julie Whalen makes move. (MarketWatch)
    • Granite Constr (GVA) awarded approximately $17 mln Duncan Creek Diversion Dam construction contract.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • APA Corporation (APA) Announces Increases Share Repurchase Authorization by 40 million shares. (See Dividends below)
    • BioCryst (BCRX) Names Dr. Bill Sheridan Chief Development Officer and Appoints Dr. Ryan Arnold Chief Medical Officer.
    • Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) CFO to retire.
    • CSX: Joseph R. Hinrichs Appointed President and CEO of CSX.
    • Expedia Group (EXPE) appoints Julie Whalen as Executive Vice President and CFO.
    • Nurix Therapeutics (NRIX) Appoints Leading Industry Strategist Edward C. Saltzman to its Board of Directors.
    • PayPal (PYPL) CFO Blake Jorgensen is taking a leave of absence citing health reasons.
    • Qutoutiao Inc. (QTT) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notice.
    • RBC Bearings Incorporated (ROLL) Announces Transfer of Common Stock and Preferred Stock Listings to the New York Stock Exchange.
    • Reinsurance Group of America (RGA) Board Chair J. Cliff Eason to retire on December 31.
    • Shell plc (SHEL) CEO to step down at end of year.
    • Tencent Music (TME) proposes secondary listing on Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
    • USAK Halt – Additional Information Requested by NASDAQ.
    • Williams-Sonoma (WSM) announces appointment of Jeff Howie to CFO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Eneti Inc. (NETI) Authorizes $50 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Aurora Mobile (JG) Announces Share Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Nabriva Therapeutics (NBRV) Announces Date of 1-for-25 Reverse Stock Split
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • APA Corporation (APA) Announces Dividend Increase, Declares Cash Dividend on Common Shares to $0.25 per share..
    • Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) increases quarterly dividend to $1.80 from $1.75 per share.
    • Laureate Education (LAUR) Announces Special Cash Distribution.
    • Logitech​ ​(LOGI) Shareholders​ ​Approve​ ​Proposals,​ ​Including​ ​Increased Dividend,​ At ​Annual​ ​General​ ​Meeting.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -4, Dow Jones +16, NASDAQ -26, and Russell 2000 -4. (as of 8:09 a.m. EDT). Europe higher ex France and Asia higher ex Shanghai.  VIX Futures are at 25.95 from 26.55  yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 26.16 from 27.27 yesterday. Gold, Silver  and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower with Natural Gas lower as well. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.455% from 3.449% yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $20,146 from $20,291 yesterday morning and is higher by 1.27% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Utilities, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Basic Materials of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Energy, Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Utilities, Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.

Stocks had a very controlled day compared to yesterday.  Small gains in all indexes.  Tech was up the most with the NASDAQ up 0.74%.  SPX stayed well with in the range of  the value lines.

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: ADBE of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: CCRN, HUM of note.
  • Negative Guidance: NUE, ARNC of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: NETI +8%, VLD +8%, FTI +6%, CMP +5%, DHR +4%.
  • Gap Down: RYTM -12%, IDYA -12%, ARNC -9%.

Insider Action:  MEDP, SIX sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: Rails, ARNC DHR NEE  JWN AIG(CNBC)
  • Five Things To Know Before Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Rails and Union reach a tentative deal. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Putin’s Options Narrow. (Bloomberg)
  • Hedge Fund Icon Ray Dalio says that rates at 4.5% would sink stocks 20%. (Bloomberg)
  • Jerome Powell to the Rest of the World: Drop Dead (Bloomberg)
  • Adobe (ADBE) looks to buy Figma. (Bloomberg)
  • Samsung (SSNLF) expected to reduce TV shipments for year. (Digitimes)
  • Arconic (ARNC) cuts its forecast due to production costs  and higher energy costs in Europe.

Moving Average Update:

  • Minimal market bounce not enough to elicit a single cross even on a short term moving average.  Score remains ZERO.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Briefing, 8:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President hosts and delivers a keynote speech at the United We Stand Summit, 3:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route Walter E. Washington Convention Center, Washington, D.C., 7:50 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • August Retail Sales is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at 0.0% the same as last month.
  • September Empire State Manufacturing is also due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to -13.50 from -31.03.
  • Philly Fed Mfg Index 8:30a a.m. EDT
  • Import and Export Prices 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • August Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.0% from 0.6%.
  • Business Inventories 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) and Oaktree Strategic Income II, Inc. Enter into Merger Agreement.
  • STORE Capital (STOR) to be Acquired by GIC and Oak Street in $14 Billion Transaction .. $32.25 Per Share in Cash

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Autonomous Research 7th Annual Virtual Annual Future of Commerce Symposium 2022 (09/15/22-09/16/22)
    • Cantor Fitzgerald’s Cell and Genetic Medicines Conference 2022
    • Deutsche Bank Detroit Auto Show Conference 2022
    • Pickering Energy Partners Annual Energy Conference 2022
    • Raymond James Key Trends in Wealth Management Symposium 
    • Raymond James Consumer Conference (09/15/22-09/16/22)
    • Sequire Semiconductor Conference 2022
    • Wolfe Research Private Real Estate Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Credit Suisse Carbon Negative 2.0 (09/14/22-09/16/22)
        • Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference
        • JP Morgan Mexico Opportunities Conference
        • Morgan Stanley 25th Annual Latin America Conference 2022 (09/12/22-09/16/22)
        • Morgan Stanley Laguna Industrials Conference (09/14/22-09/16/22)
        • Nomura Korea Corporate Day (09/14/22-09/15/22)
        • Truist Securities Internet Growth Summit (09/12/22-09/16/22)
        • UBS Global Energy Transition Conference 2022 (09/12/22-09/15/22)
  • Company Meetings: AEHL, KPRX
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AQB, BTCS, CMP, CVX, DHR, GTHX, HLIT, NATI, RBLX, SCHW, SKIN, SQM, SSNC
  • Update: HUM, SLS, TROW
  • R&D Day: ASLN
  • Company Event:
    • Silicon Labs (SLAB) Works With Conference 2022 (09/13/22-09/15/22)
    • HR Technology (HRT) Conference & Exposition 2022. (09/13/22-09/16/22)
    • Clearwater (CWAN) Connect 2022. (09/14/22-09/15/22)
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Newport International Boat Show (09/15/22-09/18/22)
    • 60th European Society for Paediatric Endocrinology (ESPE) 2022 (09/15/22-09/17/22)
    • International Congress of Parkinson’s Disease and Movement 2022 (09/15/22-09/18/22)
    • Virtual Investor Conferences Life Sciences Investor Forum 2022
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • The 2022 North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) (09/14/22-09/25/22)
        • infra/STRUCTURE 2022 (09/14/22-09/15/22)
        • American Orthopaedic Foot & Ankle Society (AOFAS) annual meeting (09/14/22-09/17/22)
        • Mind the Tech NY Conference 2022 (09/14/22-09/15/22)
        • The Battery Show and EV Technology Expo 2022 (09/13/22-09/15/22)
        • 3rd Annual Gene Therapy for Ophthalmic Disorders 2022 (09/13/22-09/16/22)
        • Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek 2022 (09/13/22-09/16/22)
        • International Manufacturing and Technology Show (IMTS) 2022 (09/12/22-09/17/22)
        • Military Health System Research Symposium (MHSRS) 2022  (09/12/22-09/15/22)
        • IWA World Water Congress & Exhibition 2022 (09/05/22-09/15/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: