CAPIS Morning Note – 09/14/23: Futures Higher Into ECB Announcement, PPI and Jobless Claims

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.12% at 4467.44 from  Tuesday lower by -0.57% at 4461.90. The high was hit at 4538 at 7:15 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4519 at 6:10 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 19 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 19.50…

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.12% at 4467.44 from  Tuesday lower by -0.57% at 4461.90. The high was hit at 4538 at 7:15 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4519 at 6:10 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 19 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 19.50 from 20  down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-August average was 21.10 from 18.81 in May through July and the August average was 26.21. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by 19 points which is 0.42% at  a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: SMTC +0.09 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.


Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • ARM Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering —  95,500,000 American depositary shares (“ADSs”), each representing one of its ordinary shares, at a price to the public of $51.00 per ADS. (CNBC)
      • ARM – SoftBank’s Arm Holdings Prices IPO At $51.00/ADS, Top End Of Estimated Range Chip designer Arm Holdings plc., affiliated to Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp., said that it has priced its initial public offering of 95.50 million American depositary shares or “ADSs” at a price to the public of $51.00 per ADS, which is the top end of the previously estimated range of $47.00 to $51.00 per ADS. Each ADS represents one of its ordinary shares. The ADSs are expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on September 14, 2023 under the symbol “ARM.”
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • FAST Acquisition Corp. II (FZT) extends the date by which the Corporation must consummate an initial Business Combination to October 18 from Sept 18.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • IE: Announces Pricing and Upsizing of Public Offering.
    • SBOW: Prices offering of 4.0 million shares of common stock by co and selling shareholders at $37.00 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • BIOL: Announces Pricing of $4.5 Million Underwritten Public Offering of Series J Convertible Redeemable Preferred Stock and Warrants.
    • SUN: Announces Pricing of Private Offering of Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AMC: Successfully Completes At-the-Market Equity Offering, Raising More Than $325 Million, Substantially Increasing Its Financial Resilience.
    • ATHX: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 15,357,692 Shares
    • CING: Closing of $4.0 Million Public Offering.
    • EPRT: Public Offering of Common Stock 8.7Million shares. (WFC, BAC, Citi and Mizuho bookmanager)
    • HLGN: Filed Form 424B5.. Up to $40,000,000 Common Stock.
    • IE: Public Offering of Common Stock – US $150 million of shares. (BMO and JPM Bookmanager)
    • MYSZ: Filed Form S-3. up to 5,509,173 shares.
    • OKYO: Public Offering of Ordinary Shares. (Freedom Capital Bookmanager)
    • VTLE – Vital Energy Announces Offering Of Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • GENI: Announces Commencement of Secondary Offering by Selling Shareholder.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ILAG: Filed Form F-3.. $80,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • IREN: Filed Form F-3.. $500 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • CNHI: Closing of $500 million notes of CNH Industrial Capital LLC.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • KKR: Announces Conversion Rate for Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: SCNI +8% of note.
    • Trading Down: IE -11%, VTLE -10%, IBEX -8%, SMTC -6% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • UAW will likely have to take action, preparing to strike against the Big Three Autos. President says they are preparing to strike these companies in a way they have never seen. (Reuters)
    • Goldman Sachs (GS) Has Terminated Several Executives In Transaction Banking. (Reuters)
    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Paid Millions to Hackers in Attack. (Bloomberg)
    • Citi (C) Plans Job Cuts as It Revamps Top Management Structure. (Bloomberg)
    • BofA: We expect the Fed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25-5.5% at the September FOMC meeting. This outcome would be consistent with both recent Fed communications and current market pricing. We expect no change to the Fed’s balance sheet policies.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Cantaloupe (CTLP) to delay 10-K filing.
    • Fresh Vine Wine, Inc. (VINE) Receives NYSE American Noncompliance Notice.
    • Nordstrom (JWN) Announces Executive Leadership Appointments.
    • SBUX: Howard Schultz to retire as director; Starbucks honors Schultz as lifelong Chairman Emeritus, forever inspired by his passion, heart, spirit, and commitment to the power of human connection.
    • SkyWater Technology (SKYT) announced that John Sakamoto will be joining the company as president and chief operating officer.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • HealthStream (HSTM) Announces Share Repurchase Program up to $10 million.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • InterDigital (IDCC) raises quarterly dividend to $0.40 per share from $0.35 per share.
    • Trinity Capital (TRIN) increases quarterly dividend by 2.1% to $0.54 per share.
    • W.R. Berkley (WRB) declares special cash dividend of $0.50 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +14, Dow Jones +82,  NASDAQ +159and Russell 2000 +9.  (as of 7:53 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher and Europe is lower this morning ex the FTSE is it awaits the ECB Decision. VIX Futures are at 15.50 from 14.68 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper lower this morning for a third day in a row. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.258% from 4.306%  yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $26,350 from $26,186 yesterday, higher by 0.72%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Energy, Industrials, Basic Materials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Technology, and Communication Services of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Investors largely liked what they saw in Wednesday’s inflation report, solidifying their bets that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at the end of next week’s policy meeting.  Major stock indexes were modestly higher for most of the day before losing some momentum in the final 90 minutes of the session. The S&P 500 added 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%. Treasury yields were little changed, with the yield on the 10-year note falling to 4.248% from 4.263% on Tuesday.   (MarketWatch – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: 

  • Friday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.


  • Positive Guidance: LEA of note.
  • Negative Guidance:MMM, SMTC of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: FFIE +11%, AMC +9%, HSTM +4%, SMTC +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: PCT -14%, BNOX -12%, IE -12%, IBEX -11%, VTLE -8%, SCNI -4% of note.

Insider Action: MIRM sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  SMLR sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Chip Designer Arm’s IPO Priced For A Smooth Trading Debut.(Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Second Most Shared Story: Citi Plans Jobs Cuts As It Revamps. (Bloomberg)
  • Stock Futures climb as Wall Street awaits a second inflation report. (CNBC)
  • European shares are trading a bit higher into the ECB Decision this morning. (Reuters)
  • China Cuts Reserve Requirement Ratio for Second Time This Year. (Bloomberg)
  • China Sows Fresh Confusion About Apple (AAPL) With Security Remarks. (Bloomberg)
  • Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) calls on Yellen and FSOC to do more to shore up regional banks. (CNBC)
  • Hedge Fund Titan Ray Dalio says he does not want to hold bonds, “cash is good”. Dalio is known for says “cash is trash”. (Bloomberg)
  • UAW to hit auto manufacturers with targeted strikes at a variety of plants on Friday. (FoxNews)
  • Biden probably cannot stop a strike against the Big 3 carmakers. (Bloomberg)
  • MGM Resorts (MGM) says cyber attack could have a material impact on company. (CNBC)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace: How Musk’s Starlink became a security liability for the U.S. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: UN says rival governments are coordinating efforts in Libya after floods. (Podcast
  • NY Times The Daily: An armored train and a dangerous new alliance. (Podcast)
  • Bloomberg: Carbon captures make or break moment. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion:  No escaping a hard landing. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score  improves 6% to 48%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route to Largo, Maryland, 1:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Largo, Maryland, 2:10 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks on Bidenomics, 2:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 4:10 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a call and delivers remarks with rabbis around the country to commemorate the Jewish High Holidays, 6:15 p.m. EDT


  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • August PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 0.4% from 0.3%.
  • August Retail Sales is also due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 0.2% from 0.7%.
  • Business Inventories 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • EIA natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity and News: None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: