CAPIS Morning Note – 09/08/23: S&P 500 Heads For A Losing Week Unless It Rallies 64 Points Today, Unlikely.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.32% at 4451.14 from Wednesday lower by -0.70%  at 4465.48. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4469 at 3:10 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4443 at 5:10 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 26 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.32% at 4451.14 from Wednesday lower by -0.70%  at 4465.48. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4469 at 3:10 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4443 at 5:10 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 26 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 18.20 from 19.50 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-August average was 21.10 from 18.81 in May through July and the August average was 26.21. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -4.75 points which is -0.11% at 7:10 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: RH +1.25, GWRE +0.36, ZUMZ +0.23, BRZE +0.18, SMAR +0.09, DOCU +0.06, SWBI +0.04 of note.
  • Flat: FIZZ of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • BEN, A Provider of Personalized Customer Engagement AI Technology, to Go Public on Nasdaq Through Proposed Business Combination with DHC Acquisition Corp. (DHCA)
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • ASPS: Announces Pricing of $17.5 Million Public Offering of Common Stock. 4,861,111 shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $3.60 per share.
    • BROS: Prices offering of 11,538,461 shares of common stock at $26.00 per share .
    • KRT: Prices secondary offering of 1.0 million shares of common stock at $21.00 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • AEIS: Announces Pricing of Offering of $500 Million of 2.50% Convertible Senior Notes.
    • CRGY: Pricing of Upsized $150 Million Private Placement of Additional 9.250% Senior Notes Due 2028.
    • GILD: Prices $2B senior unsecured notes in a public offering.
    • OFC: Announces Pricing of $300 Million of Exchangeable Senior Notes.
    • RCI: Announces Pricing of Canadian Private Placement of $3 Billion of Senior Notes.
    • SPGI: Announces Pricing of Offering of $750,000,000 Senior Notes due 2033.
    • STX: Announces Pricing of $1.3 Billion of Exchangeable Senior Unsecured Notes.
    • VSH: Prices Offering of $650 Million of 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AGBA: $50 Million Equity Purchase Agreement.
    • ASPS: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (B.RIley bookmanager)
    • HD: Filed Form S-3ASR.. This prospectus relates to 1,500,000 shares of our common stock, to be offered for purchase under DepotDirect.
    • HUBC: Filed Form F-1.. PRIMARY OFFERING OF 18,918,506 ordinary shares secondary offering of 87,807,052 shares.
  • Direct Offering:
    • ARQQ: Announces $16.2 Million Registered Direct Offering.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • DKL: Filed Form S-3.. 13,565,410 Common Units by selling unitholder.
    • KRT: Proposed Secondary Offering of Common Stock by certain members of the Company’s management team. (LakeStreet Bookmanagers)
    • NOTE: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 11,215,000 Shares of Class A Common Stock by selling shareholder.
    • PAGP: Filed Form S-3.. 388,839 Class A Shares Representing Limited Partner Interests.
    • ZD: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 186,102 Shares Common Stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • PHR: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • BURL: Discloses it entered into exchange and subscription agreements with a limited number of holders of its 2.25% convertible senior notes due 2025.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: SWBI +9%, SMAR +5% of note.
    • Trading Down:  KRT -15%, RH -8%, HPP -8%, ZUMZ -6%, PL -5% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: DOCU, SMAR, PL, RH, GWRE  (CNBC)
    • SEC Probes Ryan Cohen’s Bed Bath & Beyond Trades. (WSJ)
    • Zoom (ZM) Talked With Regulators About Microsoft (MSFT) Competition Concerns. (Bloomberg)
    • Disney (DIS) drops all but free speech claim in political retaliation suit against DeSantis. (CNBC)
    • Guidewire Software (GWRE) stock falls on full-year forecast. (MarketWatch)
    • Smith & Wesson (SWBI) stock rallies after quarterly sales jump 35%. (MarketWatch)
    • Smartsheet’s (SMAR) stock rises on strong results, guidance. (MarketWatch)
    • Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon sees Wall Street rebound if tech IPOs perform. (CNBC)
    • TSLA X Head Of Brand Safety Thierry Leaves Company. (TheInformation)
    • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams Says Policy in Good Place, Must Be Data Dependent. (Bloomberg)
    • Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee: Nearing A Point When It Is Not A Matter Of Raising Rates – NPR – But How Long To Keep Them High.
    • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Lorie Logan: ‘Could Be Appropriate’ To Skip Rate Hike In September – Skipping Does Not Imply Stopping
    • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic:
      • There is still a lot of momentum in the economy, and demand still up.
      • `Still work to do’ to bring inflation to the 2% target.
    • Boeing (BA) awarded not-to-exceed U.S. Air Force contract of $475 mln for the F-15 Japan Super Interceptor Program.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Delisting of Securities from The Nasdaq Stock Market: Nymox Pharmaceutical Corporation; Aridis Pharmaceuticals Inc.; Novan, Inc.; ViewRay, Inc.; 9 Meters Biopharma, Inc.; Nabriva Therapeutics plc; UTA Acquisition Corporation; AppHarvest, Inc.; Yellow Corporation; Proterra Inc.; Amyris, Inc.; Chain Bridge I; LatAmGrowth SPAC; and SpringBig Holdings, Inc.
    • BK Technologies (BKTI) Board, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer Elect to Receive Common Stock in lieu of Cash Compensation.
    • CVS Health (CVS) announces additional responsibilities for executive leadership team members.
    • Celularity (CELU) Appoints Geoffrey Shiu Fei Ling, M.D., Ph.D. to its Board of Directors.
    • Daktronics (DAKT) to delay 10-Q filing.
    • Dingdong (DDL) Announces the Change of Director.
    • Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) appoints Diana M. Charletta as CEO; appoints Thomas F. Karam as Executive Chairman.
    • Select Medical (SEM) names Michael Malatesta as CFO.
    • SURF: Additional Information Requested by NASDAQ.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • AER: Form 6K.. On September 7, 2023, the board of directors (the “Board”) of AerCap Holdings N.V. (“AerCap”) approved a share repurchase program authorizing total repurchases of up to $650 million of AerCap ordinary shares through December 31, 2023.
    • DOCU Increase Of $300 million To Stock Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • NEPT trading reverse split price
  • Dividends Announcements or News:  
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) Announces Cash Dividend.
    • Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) suspends common stock dividend.
    • VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) Increases Regular Quarterly Dividend 6.4%.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -4, Dow Jones -37,  NASDAQ -26, and Russell 2000 -2.  (as of 8:02 a.m. EDT).  Asia and Europe are lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.40 from 15.63 yesterday.  Gold and Silver higher with  Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.254% from 4.276%  yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $25,836 from $25,703  yesterday, lower by -0.11%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services, and Technology of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials,  of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

The S&P 500 declined Thursday for a third consecutive trading day, dragged down by concerns about the path of interest rates and a selloff in Apple (AAPL) shares.  The broad index pulled back 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9%, its fourth straight negative session. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial was the relative outperformer, adding about 58 points, or 0.2%. (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open:

  

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: KR of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: SMAR, DOCU of note.
  • Negative Guidance: TTC, RH, GWRE, PL of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: FFIE +16%, SWBI +11%, SMAR +9% of note.
  • Gap Down: KRT -13%, HPP -9%, ZUMZ -8%, RH -7%, PL -5% of note.

Insider Action: HTLD, PENN sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.   No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  US Probe Made In China Chip as Alarm over Huawei Grows. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Second Most Shared Story: Apple Two Day Slide Nears $200 Billion on China iPhone Curbs. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks futures slide as S&P 500 heads for losing week after rebound last week. (CNBC)
  • G-20 Leaders reach India for increasingly divided summit. (Bloomberg)
  • Asian Development Bank notes that the world faces immense funding challenges after Covid. (CNBC)
  • President Biden does not plan to meet with Chinese Premier Li Quang at G-20. (Bloomberg)
  • Everything Apple (AAPL) plans to show on September 12th product day. (Bloomberg)
  • Another strike? Las Vegas hotel workers may strike soon. (WSJ)
  • Goldman (GS) is preparing another round of job cuts on underperforming workers. (FT)
  • NPR Morning Marketplace: Google’s (GOOGL) Justice Department trial could test the future of antitrust law. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: Ukrainian counter-offensive gradually gaining ground. (Podcast) 
  • NY Times The Daily:  A tragic fire in South Africa capitol. (Podcast)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: Abandoned electric cars “as far as the eye can see”. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion:  Is an economic breaking point inevitable? (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes down to 31% from 51%.  Started the week at 100%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President arrives at Ramstein, Germany for a brief refueling stop, 12:10 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs Ramstein, Germany en route to New Delhi, India, 1:40 a.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in New Delhi, India, 9:55 a.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Republic of India, 10:35 a.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • Wholesale Inventories 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EDT
  • Consumer Credit 3:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 9:00 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly 11:00 a.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News: None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Virtual Electric Vehicle Show 2023
    • J.P. Morgan’s APAC CEO -CFO Forum
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Citigroup Global Technology Conference (09/05/23-09/08/23)
        • Evercore ISI Real Estate Conference 2023 (09/07/23-09/08/23)
        • Evercore ISI Semiconductor & Semiconductor Conf (09/06/23-09/08/23)
        • Jefferies Asia Forum 2023 (09/06/23-09/08/23)
        • Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: AVGR, RTL, VCNX 
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ATR, CNSP, KMT, RBLX, TECH
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Society for Neuroscience in Anesthesiology and Critical Care (SNACC) Annual Meeting 2023 (09/08/23-09/10/23)
    • European Society of Cataract and Refractive Surgery (ESCRS) Annual Meeting 2023 (09/08/23-09/12/23)
    • European Association of Nuclear Medicine (EANM) Annual Congress 2023 (09/08/23-09/13/23)
    • International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer (IASLC) World Conference on Lung Cancer 2023 (09/09/23-09/12/23)
    • European Respiratory Society (ERS) International Congress 2023 (09/09/23-09/13/23)
    • American Neurological Association (ANA) Annual Meeting 2023 (09/09/23-09/12/23)
    • Annual Meeting of the American College of Clinical Pharmacology ACCP 2023 (09/10/23-09/12/23)
    • Technology & Innovation North America 2023 (09/10/23-09/12/23)
    • NY Fashion Week
    • SaaStr Annual Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • 50th Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Offshore Europe Conference 2023 (09/05/23-09/08/23)
        • MSPO: The International Defense Industry Exhibition 2023 (09/05/23-09/08/23)
        • World Molecular Imaging Congress (09/05/23-09/09/23)
        • Scoliosis Research Society Annual Meeting 2023 (09/06/23-09/09/23)
        • Society of Hematologic Oncology Annual Meeting (09/06/23-09/09/23)
        • SEMICON Taiwan 2023 (09/06/23-09/08/23)
        • PAINWeek Conference (09/05/23-09/08/23)
        • American Heart Association (AHA) Hypertension Scientific Sessions 2023 (09/07/23-09/10/23)
        • SPE Offshore Europe Conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: