CAPIS Morning Note – 09/07/22: Stocks Mixed As Wednesday Trading Nears

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3908.19 (lower by -0.41%) from Friday at 3926.24 (lower by -1.07%). The overnight high of 3923.25 was hit at 4:10 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3883.50 at 8:25 a.m. EDT, a range of 41 points high to low which is below the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3908.19 (lower by -0.41%) from Friday at 3926.24 (lower by -1.07%). The overnight high of 3923.25 was hit at 4:10 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3883.50 at 8:25 a.m. EDT, a range of 41 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45. At 7:15 a.m. EDT the current price was 3914.75 which is 0.11% and 4.25 points. Currently, at 8:00 a.m. EDT the S&P 500 is now up by  points.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: COUP +0.11, PATH +0.09, GTLB +0.08, GWRE +0.04.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • AIG Announces Launch of Initial Public Offering of Corebridge Financial, Inc. Shares expected to price between $21-$24 and trade on the NYSE under ticker symbol “CRBG”.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • DG: Dollar General Corporation Announces Pricing of $2.3 Billion of Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ADCT: Filed Form F-3.. 1,260,863 Common Shares.
    • CANO: Files Form S-3 Registration Statements to Replace Prior S-1 Registration Statements; No Issuance or Sale by Cano Health.
    • CRGY: Secondary Public Offering of Class A Common Stock.. 5Million shares .. CS, KKR, WFC, JPM, BAC, RBC and Truist bookmanagers.
    • PYCR: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 93,000,000 Shares of Common Stock — Common Stock by Selling Stockholders 5Million shares.. GS Bookmanager.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • ADCT: Files for 4,412,840 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • PYCR: See Common.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • RKLY: Filed Form S-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • LOW: Prices $4.75 billion notes offering.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: COUP +12%, TUB+8%, VAL +5%.
    • Trading Down: PATH -17%, CDMO -5%, CRGY -5%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: COUP, NWL, GTLB  (CNBC)
    • Instagram Scaling Back Shopping Features Amid Commerce Retreat. (TheInformation)
    • LCID:  Has lost 6 high-level manufacturing execs in a few weeks as it struggles to ramp up production and overhaul its logistics playbook. (BI circulations)
    • GOOGL: YouTube to allow sports betting ads.
    • XLU: California Says Brace for Blackouts as Heat Wave Drives Record Power Use. (Bloomberg)
    • Transocean (RIG) receives $181 million in contracts for ultra-deepwater drillship Deepwater Asgard.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Agora (API) announced that Mr. Tony Zhao, founder, chairman and CEO of Agora, has informed Agora’s board of directors of his intention to use his personal funds to purchase up to an aggregate of $30 million of Agora’s ADSs or Class A ordinary shares for the next 12 months.
    • Hartford Financial (HIG) President Doug Elliot will retire.
    • Priority Technology Holdings (PRTH) announces the appointment of Tim O’Leary to the position of Chief Financial Officer.
    • Target (TGT) announces Brian Cornell plans to remain on as CEO for approx. three more years; chief supply chain and logistics officer to retire. (See Rags and Mags)
    • Traeger (COOK) Announces Executive Promotions (COO and Chief Sales Officer)
    • Nature’s Sunshine (NATR) Announces Retirement of CFO Joseph Baty.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Agora, Inc. (API) Announces Management Share Purchase Plan.
    • COUP: Announces Board of Directors Authorized $100 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Eastern Bankshares (EBC) announces new share repurchase program.
    • EQT Doubles Share Repurchase Program to $2 Billion.
    • Fortune Brands (FBHS) Announces Key Organization and Leadership Changes to Align Organization and Drive Accelerated Growth and Productivity.
    • Lazydays (LAZY) Announces John North’s Commencement of Service as Chief Executive Officer and Appointment to Lazydays Holdings, Inc. Board of Directors.
    • Nordson Corporation’s (NDSN) Board of Directors Authorizes Additional $500 Million for Share Repurchase Program.
    • SM Energy (SM) announces new shareholder capital return plans including share repurchases and dividends.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • SM Energy (SM): See above Buyback.
    • Wesco (WCC) to Announce Long-Term Outlook and its Plans to Significantly Increase Return of Capital to Shareholders Including a Common Stock Dividend.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

​S&P 500 -1.14, Dow Jones +6.7, NASDAQ -10.00, and Russell 2000 -2.9 (as of 8:11 a.m. EDT). Europe lower and Asia lower ex Shaghai.  VIX Futures are at 26.90 from 25.29 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 26.91 from 25.47 yesterday. Gold lower, Silver higher and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower with Natural Gas lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.33% from 3.246% yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $18,736 from $19,936.02 yesterday morning and is lower by -0.72% this morning.

Sector Action – 09/06/22 Close (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  none of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.

Line in the sand is SP 3900.  Early positive market action was snuffed out as markets retreated.  TLT was down -2.48% as yields headed higher.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: CPRT, GME, CASY, DSGX, ASAN, VRNT, AVAV, AEO, PHR, BASE, CURV, YEXT of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: BILI, FCEL, LOVE of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: ASO +0.26, NIO +0.03, REVG +0.02.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: GIII (0.07), KFY (0.01).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: GTLB, GWRE, UAL of note.
  • Negative Guidance: PATH, NWL, NIO of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 09/06/22 close.

  

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: COUP +12%, AVYA +9%, TUP +6%, BSET +5%, FIXX +4%.
  • Gap Down: PATH -21%, CRGY -6%, NWL -4%, NIO -4%, IOT -4%.

Insider Action: GNTY, MEDP sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 09/06/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: COUP PATH NIO NWL PINS (CNBC)
  • Five Things To Know Before Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Goldman says yet to make a decisive low. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Energy stressed by $1.5 trillion margin call. (Bloomberg)
  • Russian President Putin says no oil to countries that have a price cap. (Reuters)
  • European Union planning a price cap on non-gas generated electricity. (FT)
  • Apple (AAPL) to unveil new iPhone as well as other devices and computers. (Event)
  • Target (TGT) CEO to stay on for three more years as retirement age mandate scrapped. (CNBC)
  • Samsung (SSNLF) CEO is cautious on chip sales for remainder of this year and next year. (WSJ)
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin says rates need to remain high until easing of inflation. (FT)
  • No blackouts in California last night. (Bloomberg)
  • United Airlines (UAL) threatens to end flights at JFK over runway use or lack thereof. (Bloomberg)
  • United Airlines (UAL) raised Q3 guidance after a strong summer.
  • Tesla (TSLA) lowers wait time on some cars. (Reuters)
  • Robinhood Snacks: Looks at Russia cutting off Europe from natural gas as winter approaches.

Moving Average Update:

  • Remain at a score of zero.   Updated 09/06/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady host former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama for the unveiling of their official White House portraits; The Vice President and The Second Gentleman attend, 1:30 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 2:45 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications – (WOW) Actual: -0.8% VS -3.7% previous, Rate actual: 5.94% VS 5.80% previous.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • Int. Trade in Goods 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT 

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 9:00 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Research Board of Governors Lael Brainard 11:55 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 2:00 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • Bassett Furniture (BSET) Announces Purchase of Noa Home Inc.
  • Equillium (EQ) to Acquire Metacrine (MTCR) in All-Stock Transaction.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Media, Communications and Entertainment Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
    • Benchmark Consumer, Media & Entertainment Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
    • Citigroup Global Technology Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
    • Citi 17th Annual BioPharma Conference 2022 (09/07/22-09/08/22)
    • Cowen Global Transportation & Sustainable Mobility Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
    • Credit Suisse LatAm Equities Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
    • Credit Suisse Global Steel and Mining Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
    • Evercore ISI Technology, Media and Telecom Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
    • Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
    • Goldman Sachs Annual European Medtech and Healthcare Services Conference 2022 (09/07/22-09/08/22)
    • Goldman Sachs 10th Annual CEEMEA Financials Symposium (09/07/22-09/08/22)
    • Keefe, Bruyette & Woods A Stifel Co, Insurance Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
    • Morgan Stanley Industrial CEO Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
    • Needham Cannabis Conference
    • Raymond James U.S. Bank Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
    • RBC Capital Markets Engineering, Construction & Infrastructure Symposium
    • Scotiabank Financials Summit (09/07/22-09/08/22)
    • Stifel London Industrials & Renewables Summit
    • Stifel Cross Sector Insight Conference 2022 (09/07/22-09/08/22)
    • Susquehanna Gambling & Tech Ecosystem Forum
    • UBS Chemicals Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
    • Vertical Research Partners Global Industrials Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
    • Wells Fargo Leveraged Finance Conference (09/07/22-09/09/22)
    • Wolfe Research TMT Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
      •  Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Spark Capital Investor Conference
        • Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference 2022 (09/06/22-09/08/22)
        • Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference 2022 (09/06/22-09/08/22)
        • Carnegie Small & Mid Cap Seminar 2022 (09/06/22-09/08/22)
        • Deutsche Bank 12th Annual Aircraft Finance & Leasing Conference and Airline One on One Day 2022 (09/06/22-09/08/22)
        • UBS Business Services, Leisure and Transport Conference 2022 (09/06/22-09/08/22)
        • Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference 2022 (09/06/22-09/09/22)
        • Credit Suisse 23rd Asian Technology Conference 2022 (09/05/22-09/08/22)
  • Company Meetings: TWND.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: HUBS, HYRE, IMVT, SON, TRMB, WCC.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: ERAS
  • Company Event:
    • Apple (AAPL) holds its corporate event, “Far Out” for the release of the iPhone 14. Currently, the stock is close a Put Squeeze with an Erlanger Option Rank of 89%. The stock needs to move back into its Daily DMA Channel for this to occur. Watch for a flash alert email if this happens. (Event)
    • WIX DevCon 2022
  • Industry Meetings:
    • 31st European Academy of Dermatology and Venerology (EADV) Congress 2022 (09/07/22-09/10/22)
    • 148th National Investment Banking Association (NIBA) Conference (09/07/22-09/08/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • IWA World Water Congress & Exhibition 2022 (09/05/22-09/15/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: