CAPIS Morning Note – 08/08/23: Stocks Losing Much Of Yesterday’s Gains On China Weakness and Some Earnings Misses

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.90% at 4518.44% from Friday lower by -0.53% at 4478.03. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4541.75 at 4:55 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4505 at 7:20 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 36 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.90% at 4518.44% from Friday lower by -0.53% at 4478.03. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4541.75 at 4:55 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4505 at 7:20 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 36 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 29.4027.20 from 26.70 yesterday.  The average for May/June/July average was 18.81 from 19.94 in May/June. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -30.50 points and by -0.67% at 7:25 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: MED +1.33, CRSP +1.15, KD +0.95, MTW +0.43, AYX +0.30, ICIU +0.28, PRIM +0.21, PRI +0.18, INGN +0.17, FIVN +0.13, PARA +0.10, KMPR +0.10, WHD +0.10, JELD +0.09, RNG +0.08, SWKS +0.06, VECO +0.06, CTRA +0.05, PRAA +0.04, MNKD +0.04, PAY +0.04, CSWC +0.03, TDC +0.03, BRBR +0.02, FSK +0.02, OKE +0.02, HIMS +0.02, BYND +0.01, GBDC +0.01, JRVR +0.01, PWSC +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: ACM +0.00, CXW +0.00, PLTR +0.00, SRC +0.00, WTRG +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: ARWR (0.39), CE (0.32), IFF (0.23), FGEN (0.20), HPK (0.20), CBT (0.13), MRC (0.13), AEL (0.10), EVCM (0.08), SWAV (0.07), MRVI (0.06), LCID (0.06), ACVA (0.04), FORG (0.04), HLIO (0.03), NSA (0.02), CHGG (0.01) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • MIRA: Closing of $8.9 Million Initial Public Offering.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • BECN: Announces Pricing of Secondary Offering of 5 Million Shares of Common Stock.. Priced @$83.65.
    • DV: Prices offering of 12.5 mln shares of common stock at $32.65 per share.
    • HTGC: Prices upsized offering of 6.5M shares.
    • SAFE: Has priced an underwritten public offering of 6,500,000 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $21.40 per share for total gross proceeds of $139.1 million.
    • VRT: Pricing of Secondary Offering by VPE Holdings, LLC, an affiliate of Platinum Equity, LLC.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • ATI: Announces Pricing of Senior Notes Offering.
    • NVST: Prices $435.0 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering.
    • TMO: Prices Offering of USD-Denominated Senior Notes.
    • VAL: Announces Pricing of $400 Million Upsized Private Placement of Additional 8.375% Senior Secured Second Lien Notes Due 2030.
    • WMB: Prices $1.25 Billion of Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AGLE: Filed Form S-3.. 1,099,284,385 Shares Common Stock.
    • BECN: Secondary Offering of 5 Million Shares of Common Stock.
    • GAIN: Entered into a sales agreement providing for the issuance of up to an aggregate of $50 million of its common stock.
    • HTGC: Announces Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • OPTT: Form 8K.. entered into a Controlled Equity Offering Sales.
    • TMP: Filed Form S-3ASR.. $100,000,000 Common Stock and Preferred Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • FI: Entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement with ValueAct Capital to repurchase 4,098,935 shares of common stock for $121.9829 per share in a privately negotiated transaction for $499,999,978.21.
    • El Pollo Loco (LOCO) entered into a Stock Repurchase Agreement; co agreed to purchase an aggregate of 2,500,000 shares of common stock from the Sellers at a price of $10.63 per share.
    • DV: Launch of Secondary Offering by Selling Stockholders 12,500,000 shares. (GS and BCS Bookmanagers)
    • ESTE: Announces Warburg Pincus Disposition of Remaining SharesShare Sale Increases Public Float by ~25%.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • SAFE: Public Offering and Concurrent Private Placement.. 6.5Million shares. (BAC, GS, JPM and MS Bookmanagers)
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • TPB: Filed Form S-3..$500,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • COIN: Commences Cash Tender Offer for Up to $150.0 Million Aggregate Purchase Price of its Outstanding 3.625% Senior Notes Due 2031.
    • FLR: Announces Pricing of Private Offering of $500 Million of 1.125% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2029.
    • JCI: Announces Cash Tender Offers for up to $100 million in Aggregate Principal Amount of Senior Notes.
    • VZ: Announces cap increases and early participation results for tender offers for 14 series of debt securities.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: CHGG +25%, KD +15%, HIMS +14%, NCMI +12%, PAY +10%, MED +8%, MNKD +5%, PRIM +5%, MTW +5%, PLUS +4%, JELD +4%, PARA +4% of note.
    • Trading Down:  AYX -22%, IFF -19%, MRVI -13%, MRC -10%, RNG -10%, TDW -8%, BYND -8%, DCGO -6%, HLIO -6%, HTGC -5%, SWAV -5%, FIVN -5%, PWSC -5%, ADEA -4%, SAFE -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: CHGG, PARA, HIMS, LCID, IFF, CE, BYND (CNBC)
    • Hims & Hers (HIMS) stock jumps 13% after narrower loss in Q2. (MarketWatch)
    • Palantir (PLTR) reports 13% revenue growth, issues guidance that tops estimates. (CNBC)
    • RingCentral’s (RNG) stock plunges despite revenue, earnings beat (MarketWatch)
    • Lucid (LCID) misses revenue expectations after EV deliveries disappoint (CNBC)
    • Beyond Meat’s (BYND) stock is getting fried because revenue is plummeting (MarketWatch)
    • US banks including Capital One (COF), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) had their debt-rating outlooks cut by Moody’s Investors Service, which said the US banking sector is facing “several sources of strain.” (Bloomberg)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Cardiol Therapeutics (CRDL) Regains Compliance with all Applicable Listing Standards of The Nasdaq Capital Market.
    • Cellebrite DI (CLBT) announces that Thomas E. Hogan has been appointed Executive Chairman of the Board.
    • Elevance Health (ELV) announces that John Gallina will retire from his role as executive vice president and CFO later this year.
    • Farmer Brothers (FARM) announces transition of chief financial officer.
    • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) announces CFO transition plan.
    • National CineMedia (NCMI) Successfully Completes Financial Restructuring and Announces New Board of Directors.
    • Proterra (PTRA) files for voluntary Chapter 11 Reorganization to maximize value of the business & product line potential.
    • RingCentral (RNG) Announces CEO Succession. (MarketWatch)
    • Steakholder Foods (STKH) Regains Compliance With Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Magnachip (MX) Reports Results for Second Quarter 2023 Announces New $50 Million Stock Buyback Program.
    • Palantir Technologies (PLTR) authorized a stock repurchase program of up to $1.0 billion.
    • UPS Expects Share Repurchases To Be Around $3 billion.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Wheeler (WHLR) Announces Reverse Stock Split (1-10).
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Ault Alliance (AULT) Received a Dividend of $1.5 Million from its Subsidiary, Circle 8 Crane Services.
    • Broadridge Financial (BR) announces 10% increase in its annual dividend to $3.20 per share.
    • Essential Utilities (WTRG) increases quarterly dividend by 7% to $0.3071 per share.
    • Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.78 Per Share, 9.9% Increase From Prior Quarter.
    • Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Board of Directors has declared a dividend of $0.55 per common share.
    • Skyworks (SWKS) increases quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.68 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -32, Dow Jones -223,  NASDAQ -12, and Russell 2000 -23.  (as of 7:55 a.m. EDT).  Asia higher ex South Korea and Europe lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 17.25 from 17.30 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.99% from 4.105% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $29,320 from $29,042 yesterday, higher by 0.86%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Financial, Real Estate, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Financials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: , Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Technology, Basic Materials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

U.S. stocks closed higher Monday, with the Dow posting its best day in about seven weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 408 points, or 1.2%, ending near 35,473. It snapped a 3-session decline and marked the Dow’s best daily percentage gain since June 15. The S&P 500 gained 0.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.6%. Investors were looking to gauge the possibility of yet another rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month, with the U.S. economy still able to navigate higher rates without slipping into a recession. A key focus will be on Thursday’s July reading of the consumer-price index as an inflation update, but also continued corporate earnings results, including from Tyson Foods (TSN), KKR and Paramount Global (PARA) later on Monday.  (MarketWatch – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: 

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: ATKR +1.45, EHTH +1.06, TDG +0.87, LI +0.82, KNF +0.42, ARVN +0.40, HNI +0.34, OGN +0.34, BEAM +0.34, HAE +0.32, NXST +0.29, HZNP +0.23, EMBC +0.23, NYT +0.17, RDNT +0.17, SEE +0.13, LLY +0.13, PRGO +0.12, ALE +0.11, CRNC +0.11, BR +0.11, ADT +0.10, ZTS +0.10, NPO +0.09, TGLS +0.09, NEO +0.09, PAYO +0.09, DDOG +0.08, QSR +0.08, LCII +0.07, NOVT +0.07, CHH +0.06, BSY +0.05, UPS +0.05, MASS +0.04, HLMN +0.04, AMC +0.04, UAA +0.04, EVBG +0.04, BLUE +0.04, NFE +0.04, GFS +0.03, CLBT +0.03, GLBE +0.03, WMG +0.03, ARMK +0.02, DISH +0.01, STER +0.01, PLTK +0.01, DEA +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: HR +0.00, J +0.00, TECH +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: IRWD (7.09), WOW (1.25), NRG (1.22), SEAS (0.36), CWEN (0.28), MCRB (0.17), SQSP (0.17), ENR (0.15), DUK (0.07), SWIM (0.06), AHCO (0.04), OLPX (0.02), MAC (0.02), INGR (0.01), TWKS (0.01), EXK (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: EXPD , FOXA , MPW , NVAX , SMRT , TPG of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ENTA, SWAV, PLTR, HIMS, PRIM, CXW, PLUS, LI, RDNT, ATKR, HAE, SQSP, AHCO, LLY, CRNC, IRWD, NEO, BR, TDG, EHTH, PAYO of note.
  • Negative Guidance: INGN, FIVN, FORG, RNG, MRVI, MED, AYX, NSA, SRC, CE, IFF, CBT, HLIO, ZLAB, UPS, INGR, PLTK, OLPX, ADT, GLBE, NOVT, EVBG, WOW, SEE, TWKS of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: CHGG +21%, HIMS +16%, KD +15%, PAY +13%, SEAT +11%, PLUS +11%, TLRY +10%, NCMI +8%, MED +6%, MTW +6%, HAE +6%, PRIM +5%, DO +4%, JELD +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: PTRA -61%, AYX -26%, IFF -22%, MRVI -17%, BYND -15%, MRC -12%, RNG -12%, ICUI -9%, TDW -7%, INGN -7%, FIVN -7%, HTGC -6%, HLIO -6%, SAFE -6%, UPS -5%, DCGO -5%, PWSC -4%, TDC -4%, CTRA -4% of note.

Insider Action: CODI, MAA, ZBRA sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  ACR sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things to Know Before The Stock Market Opens Tuesday. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: China’s Trade Plunges More Than Forecast in Blow to Recovery. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Moodys Cuts U.S. Bank on Mounting Funding Costs, Office Risk. (Bloomberg)
  • Italy’s new windfall tax on banks wipes out $10 billion of market value. (Bloomberg)
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares higher on better trial data for Wegovy related to reducing heart attacks. (CNBC)
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) raises full year guidance. (CNBC)
  • UPS cuts margin and revenue forecasts as demand weak, new labor contract weighs on company. (CNBC)
  • NPR Marketplace: After China lifted its zero-COVID policy, economists expected the economy to come roaring back. That hasn’t quite happened. Today, we zoom in on the reasons, including a pullback in consumer spending after a burst housing bubble. Then, why the UAW is asking for a 40% raise, why Black farmers feel left behind by the Agriculture Department and why car repairs are so darn expensive these days. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: Still a window of opportunity to solve Niger crisis. (Podcast) 
  • NY Times The Daily: The legal strategy for the latest Trump Indictment. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score gets some footing jumping to 60% from 42%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 11:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President discusses the Biden Administration’s historic investments in conservation and protecting our natural resources, and how the Inflation Reduction Act is the largest investment in climate action in our nation’s history, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a lookout of the Grand Canyon, 3:35 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Grand Canyon Village, Arizona en route to Albuquerque, New Mexico, 4:20 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Albuquerque, New Mexico, 6:25 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a campaign reception, 8:00 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • NFIB Small Business Index 6:00 a.m. EDT
    • U.S. July NFIB Small Business Optimism: 91.9, [Est. 90.6, Prev. 91.0]
  • Int. Trade in Goods 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • Wholesale Inventories 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker 8:15 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 8:30 a.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News:

  • Charlie Ergen is nearing a deal to merge his major holdings, Dish Network and EchoStar. (WSJ)
  • ADT Announces Sale of Commercial Business for $1.6 Billion.
  • Allegro Microsystems (ALGM) to acquire Crocus Technology for $420 million in cash
  • Five9 (FIVN) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Aceyus.
  • KKR and Paramount Global (PARA) confirm agreement pursuant to which KKR will acquire of Simon & Schuster for $1.62 billion cash. (WSJ)
  • Payoneer (PAYO) to acquire a licensed China-based payment provider.
  • Tilray Brands (TLRY) Announces Agreement to Acquire Eight Beer & Beverage Brands From Anheuser-Busch, Fueling Tilray’s Future in the U.S. Craft Beer Industry. (MarketWatch)
  • Vivid Seats (SEAT) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire WD Holdings Co. for ~$61 million.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: