CAPIS Morning Note – 08/07/23: Can Rebound Last Beyond The Open After Last Weeks Selling?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.53% at 4478.03 from Thursday lower by -0.25% at 4501.89. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4522 at 3:45 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4500.50 at 6:05 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 22 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is…

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.53% at 4478.03 from Thursday lower by -0.25% at 4501.89. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4522 at 3:45 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4500.50 at 6:05 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 22 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 27.20 from 26.70 yesterday.  The average for May/June/July average was 18.81 from 19.94 in May/June. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by 13.25 points and by 0.29% at 7:20 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

    

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • TIVC: Announces Pricing of $1.4 Million Public Offering of Common Stock, 33,173,000 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $0.041 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ALPP: Filed Form S-1.. Common Stock and Warrants.
    • ALTG: Announces Full Exercise of Option in Secondary Offering of Common Stock.
    • CNXC: Shareholders approved issuance of stock in connection with proposed combination with Webhelp.
    • GOEV: Filed Form S-3.. 149,637,448 Shares of Common Stock.
    • HEI: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 1,054,606 Class A Common Stock.
    • IBIO: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 4,474,945 Shares Common Stock.
    • O: Entered into a sales agreement for the offer and sale of up to 120,000,000 shares of common stock from time to time.
    • RDHL: Filed Form F-3.. 1,998,221 American Depositary Shares representing 799,288,400 Ordinary Shares.
    • SNDA: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 6,941,912 Shares of Common Stock.
    • TIVC: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • VRT: Announces Commencement of Secondary Offering of 20,000,000 Shares of Common Stock by VPE Holdings, LLC, an affiliate of Platinum Equity, LLC.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • RGNX: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 257,466 Shares of Common Stock by selling shareholder.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • GRCL: Announces Up to $150 Million Private Placement Financing Joined by a Syndicate of Premier Healthcare Investors.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AG: Filed Form F-10.. US$500,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • FTI: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
    • GILD: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • LBPH: Filed Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • MAC: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • NTRS: files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • NXTC: Filed Form S-3.. $180,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • OLP: Filed Form S-3.. $245,936,398 Mixed Shelf.
    • TNP: Filed Form F-3.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • XWEL: Filed Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • ATI: Announces Proposed Senior Notes Offering.
    • ASTR: Secures $12.5 Million Senior Secured Note Financing.
    • CACC: Announces Extension of Revolving Secured Warehouse Facility.
    • FLR: proposes private offering of $500 mln of convertible senior notes.
    • NVST: Announces Proposed Convertible Senior Notes Offering.
  • Tender Offer:
    • OHB SE announces KKR (KKR) tender offer for the company.
    • SQNS: Renesas to Acquire Cellular IoT Technology Leader Sequans Through Tender Offer.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: RAD 66.3%, AAOI 62.7%, TUP 55.2%, UPWK 43.0%, RYTM 36.7%, AMRX 29.8%, OSUR 28.5%, MNK 25.0%, MOD 23.4%, CORT 22.8%, SRI 20.9%, CPS 20.9%, INSG 20.6%, SABR 20.1%, AGS 19.2%, ROAD 19.0%, ANET 18.9%.
    • Trading Down: MESO -62.5%, TGTX -46.1%, DXC -30.3%, SPR -28.3%, COMM -27.6%, GLT -27.2%, FTNT -26.0%, HLIT -26.0%, IEP -25.9%, MG -25.4%, GNRC -24.1%, TGI -23.7%, APLS -23.3%, SEDG -22.8%, CDXS -21.6%, PAYC -21.5%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • For The Week, The S&P 500 Fell -2.27%, The Dow Dropped -1.12%, The Nasdaq Lost -2.85%.
    • Textron (TXT) awarded a $241 million US Navy contract for the procurement of LCAC 100 Class material.
    • Boeing (BA) awarded $146 million US Navy order against a previously issued basic ordering agreement.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • The Score: AMD, AMZN, YELL, CAT, CVS (WSJ)
    • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman says more U.S. rate hikes likely will be needed. (CNBC)
    • Meme Stocks Are a Thing—Again. (WSJ)
    • Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.B) Profits Rise. (WSJ)
    • Investors Bet That High Rates Will Linger. (WSJ)
    • ETA: Meta’s Threads will soon have search and web functions, Zuckerberg says
    • Barron’s:
      • Positive View: JOBY, ACHR, NKE, LLY of note.
      • Cautious View: AAPL of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Aceragen, Inc. (ACGN) to Delist from The Nasdaq Stock Market.
    • BOOM: Michael Kuta Named CEO of DMC Global Mr. Kuta brings extensive leadership experience and intimate knowledge of DMC to role.
    • Daimler Truck Holding AG (DTRUY) announces death of their Chief Financial Officer Jochen Goetz.
    • Equity Bancshares, Inc. (EQBK) Announces Promotion of Chris Navratil to Chief Financial Officer and Departure of Eric Newell.
    • Focus Financial (FOCS) COO to transition to senior advisor position.
    • IM Cannabis (IMCC) Receives NASDAQ Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • Neptune (NEPT) Promotes Financial Controller to Interim CFO.
    • NuScale Power (SMR) appoints Robert Ramsey Hamady as Chief Financial Officer; elevates Clayton Scott to Chief Commercial Officer.
    • Yellow Corporation (YELL) Files Voluntary Chapter 11 Petitions.
    • XORTX (XRTX) Appoints Chief Financial Officer.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • BRK.A stock repurchases totaled $1.4 Billion in the second quarter, compared with $4.4 Billion in the first quarter and $1B for the year-earlier period.
    • Collegium (COLL) Announces $50 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase Program.
    • ManpowerGroup (MAN) Announces New Share Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • BNGO trading r/s price.
    • Copart, Inc. (CPRT) Announces a Two-for-One Stock Split.
    • MOBQ trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +12, Dow Jones +58,  NASDAQ +61, and Russell 2000 +5.  (as of 7:55 a.m. EDT).  Asia lower ex Japan and Europe lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 17.30 from 16.81 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.105% from 4.182% Friday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $29,042 from $29,164 yesterday, lower by -0.03%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Utilities, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate, Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Financials, Communication Services of note.
  • Three Month Winners: , Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Technology, Industrials, Basic Materials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slumped Friday from 1:00 p.m. EDT into the close for a fourth straight session, and notched their worst weeks since March, as traders seemed to book profits following the latest corporate earnings releases and U.S. jobs data.  The S&P 500 shed -0.53% to finish at 4,478.03, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped -0.36% to settle at 13,909.24. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 150.27 points, or -0.43%, to end at 35,065.62.  The Nasdaq and S&P dropped about -2.9% and -2.3%, respectively, to notch their worst weeks since March. The Dow edged down -1.1%.  (CNBC – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: 

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DK +0.26, KKR +0.23, ELAN +0.13, FRPT +0.05, GOGO +0.05, SOVO +0.04, BNTX +0.04, ACRS +0.03, HSIC +0.03 of note.
  • Flat: ADTN, CCO, GENI, THS of note.
  • Misses: VTRS (0.49), SAGE (0.13), TSN (0.11) of note.
  • Still to Report: RCUS of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: TWST, TNC, ELAN, THS, GENI of note.
  • Negative Guidance: GTES, ADTN, GOGO of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: SQNS +13%, NKLA +9%, ELAN +5% of note.
  • Gap Down: YELL -26%, ADTN -7% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens Friday. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Trucker Yellow Goes Bankrupt After Debt, Labor Woes Pile Up. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Mallorca’s Prime Housing Market Gets Boost From American Buyers. (Bloomberg)
  • The government shutdown grows after downgrade, imperiling Wall Street bets. (Bloomberg)
  • Stock Futures rise as Wall Street comes off a losing week. (CNBC)
  • Treasuries slide as stock futures rebound: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Saudi Aramco posted 38% drop in second-quarter profit as lower prices hit. (CNBC)
  • Barbie (MAT) tops $1 billion at the box office after this weekend. (CNBC)
  • JP Morgan backs off recession call. (CNBC)
  • U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rates are now at their highest level in 23 years.
  • NPR Marketplace: Is that a productivity boom we see on the horizon? It’s too early to tell if that’s the case, but the economic mood has clearly improved. Our Weekly Wrap panel parses the changes. Also, labor shortages in home health care, a dip in domestic travel and the cultural/economic impact of hip-hop. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: Niger coup sees airspace closed. (Podcast
  • NY Times The Daily: The economy is on an upswing. Should Biden get credit? (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Is this the start of a 3-10% pullback? (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score notches down to 42% from 45%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The First Lady depart New Castle, Delaware en route to Joint Base Andrews, 9:55 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady arrive at Joint Base Andrews, 10:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady arrive at the White House, 10:50 a.m. EDT
    • The President welcomes the Houston Astros to the White House to celebrate their 2022 World Series victory; The Second Gentleman attends, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews, 6:10 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to Grand Canyon Village, Arizona, 6:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Grand Canyon Village, Arizona, 9:45 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Investor Movement Index 12:30 p.m. EDT
  • Consumer Credit 3:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 8:30 a.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • Ikena Oncology (IKNA) acquires Pionyr Immunotherapeutics in all-stock deal.
  • Sequans Communications (SQNS) to be acquired by Renesas Electronics (RNECF) for $3.03 per ADS.
  • Silvercorp Metals (SVM) acquires OreCorp.
  • SOVO up pm on Campbell Soup (CPB) to buy Sovos Brands in $2.7B all-cash deal.
  • Tabula Rasa HealthCare (TRHC) to be acquired by Nautic Partners for $10.50 in cash per share and will combine with ExactCare Pharmacy.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: CYD, SZZL
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: PHOT
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: