CAPIS Morning Note – 08/01/22: Stocks Mixed As We Enter August Trading, Pelosi Appears To Be On Her Way To Taiwan

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 4130.29 (higher by 1.42%) from 4072.23 (higher by 1.21%) on Thursday.  Futures are trading lower in the premarket session. The overnight high of 4138 was hit at 6:05 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4111 at 1:45 p.m. EDT, a range of 27 points high to low…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 4130.29 (higher by 1.42%) from 4072.23 (higher by 1.21%) on Thursday.  Futures are trading lower in the premarket session. The overnight high of 4138 was hit at 6:05 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4111 at 1:45 p.m. EDT, a range of 27 points high to low which is below the range of late with 45 the average range. At 7:15 a.m. EDT the current price is 4125.75 which is -0.19% and -7.75 points. 

Breaking News: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) will visit Taiwan. (CNN)

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AMAM: Filed Form F-3.. $300,000,000 Ordinary Shares.
    • PIXY: Filed Form S-3.. 44,737,740 Shares of Common Stock.
    • SI: Filed Form S-3.. 1,221,217 Shares Class A Common Stock.
    • STTK: Filed Form 424B5.. Up to $75,000,000 Common Stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • XFOR: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 101,850,730 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BXMT: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • ENB: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • JNPR: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • MEDS: Filed Form S-3.. $100 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • OXY: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • PSX: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • QLGN: Filed Form S-3.. $150 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • QS: Filed Form S-3.. $1 Billion Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) announces proposed offering of senior convertible notes to refinance existing outstanding senior convertible notes.
    • SYN: $3 Million Private Placement of Convertible Preferred Stock.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: HLX 55.6%, SIGA 41.6%, ARRY 40.8%, FSLR 36.8%, RUN 36.6%, ENPH 34.6%, TEVA 34.2%, RES 32.3%, TPIC 31.7%, RIG 31.5%, NTGR 30.4%, FTI 29.7%, KLXE 29.0%, SLCA 29.0%, TUSK 28.3%, GGAL 27.6%, CEPU 27.5%.
    • Trading Down: BHC -47.5%, CYH -39.3%, ROKU -26.2%, LXRX -22.2%, TPB -21.7%, TENB -21.1%, AUPH -20.7%, PBI -20.7%, PEGA -19.9%, CASH -19.1%, AAN -18.8%, FMS -18.7%, UPWK -18.3%, TSE -17.2%, ALLK -16.8%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Home prices across the United States rose in the first six months of the year at an annualized rate of 15.5 percent, according to Homegenius Home Price Index (HPI) data released today by Homegenius Real Estate LLC, a Radian Group Inc. company.
    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) awarded $3.29 billion contract with Missile Defense Agency for GWS Program.
    • Vermont reports 1st case of monkeypox, leaving only 2 U.S. states without cases.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • The Week in Business: Recession Fears.  (NYT)
    • Individual Investors Ramp Up Bets on Tech Stocks. (WSJ)
    • Crypto Prices Crashed, but True Believers Are Holding On. (WSJ)
    • SIGA GOVX CMRX CODX some Monkey Pox names.
    • Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari:
      • The economy of the us is a long way away from 2% inflation.
      • We keep getting surprised on inflation prints.
      • The U.S. is not currently in a wage-price spiral.
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: DE, CTVA, CNHI, ICL, OPEN, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, AWI, CPRI, YETI.
      • Cautious View: INTC, META, MMM.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Alibaba (BABA): Strive to Maintain Listing Status on Both NYSE, HKEX.
    • Sphere 3D (ANY) Receives Notice from NASDAQ
    • Independent Bank Group (IBTX) announces appointment of Paul Langdale as CFO.
    • Kinross Gold (KGC) names Claude Schimper as COO; CTO Paul Tomory will be leaving co.
    • NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. (NCSM) Announces CEO Retirement and Succession.
    • Quanergy (QNGY) Reports Receipt of NYSE Non-Compliance Letter Regarding Market Capitalization
    • Southern (SO) ticks lower on report CEO Tom Fanning will soon announce retirement, according to Bloomberg.
    • Tuesday Morning (TUEM) Announces CFO Transition.
    • Yalla Group (YALA) Announces Board Changes.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Apple (AAPL) Kicks off Four-part Bond Sale to Fund Buybacks, Dividends.
    • Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (OPY) Announces Share Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News:  None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500  -5, Dow Jones +7, NASDAQ -4, and Russell 2000 -4. Europe higher and Asia higher.  VIX Futures are at 23.55 from 23.45 Friday morning and the VIX closed at 21.33 from 22.33 Friday. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Oil Futures lower and Natural Gas higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.652% from 2.699% Friday morning. Bitcoin is at $23,150.98 from $23,930  yesterday morning and is lower by -3.12% this morning. As of 8:12 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – 07/29/22 Close (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology, Basic Materials, Financials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrials, Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Utilities and Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.

Strong Friday finished continued the trend for the week and also the month with positive returns.  The positive vibes from the Federal Reserves 75 basis point hike continued.  SPX closed 1.42% up on Friday, 4.3% for the week and 9.1% for July.  Updated 07/29/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: ATVI, WMB, SPG, DVN, AFL, SBAC, ANET, FANG, MPWR, CF, MOS, ZI, PINS, RRX, DVA, LSCC, CAR, CACC, OHI, WWD, VNO, LEG, EHC, AMKR, VNOM, RHP, OGS, UNVR, NSP, DEI, EPR, RDN, MATX, VRNS, CRK, EQC, KMPR, AXNX, OTTR, SANM, RMBS, BCC, CNO, KMT, RIG, EBS, ADUS, KFRC, HLIT, PLOW of note.
  • Tuesday Before the Open: SPGI, CAT, BP, ITW, ETN, MAR, MPC, UBER, KKR, IDXX, WEC, PEG, MPLX, CMI, AME, ZBH, WAT, IT, CNP, INCY, ZBRA, EXPD, ENTG, XYL, LDOS, TAP, WLK, RGEN, HSIC, SEE, SYNH, KBR, HUN, IPGP, TSEM, NRZ, HLNE, ATKR, IGT, LCII, BPMC, ETRN, SPWR, VSH, JBLU, LGIH, SAFE, OTLY, THRM, NPO, DEA, GPRE, ASTE, GEO, AINV, EOLS, HSC, ESPR, DBD of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BLDR +3.22, PKI +0.31, ON +0.08, J +0.06, AMG +0.06, EVOP +0.03, CHKP +0.03, GPN +0.02.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: AJRD -0.27, CNA -0.13, JELD -0.07.
  • Still to Report:  None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: CNHI, WPC, MOG.A, GWW, PKI, VVV, GPN of note.
  • Negative Guidance: JELD, J of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 07/29/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: AVXL +10%, PSO +8%, HSBC +7%, ARQT +4%, LI +4%, XPEV +4%, NIO +4%.
  • Gap Down: BEAM -11%, JELD -4%, QS -4%.

Insider Action: AYI, BECN sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  MICS sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 07/29/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: BA NIO CHKP. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  U.S. Equity Futures Fall As Oil Rally Wobbles. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: China repeats would take military action if House Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan. (Bloomberg)
  • Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) willing to let Republicans modify The Inflation Reduction Act which could cause bill to collapse. (Axios)
  • European fears over Russian cut off of natural gas remain a big concern. (NYT)
  • HSBC rejects call for a breakup. (Reuters)
  • Boeing (BA) workers cancelled planned strike. (Reuters)
  • Google (GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai wants Google employees to improve focus and productivity, warning of a toughening economy. (CNBC)
  • Ukraine grain shipment departs country for the first time since invasion. (WSJ)
  • Judge will not remove Visa (V) from a child porn lawsuit. (Reuters).

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 80%.  Updated 07/29/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Briefing, 10:15 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:45 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • PMI Mfg Final 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • ISM Mfg Index 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • Construction Spending 10:00 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • VVV: Valvoline Announces Agreement for Sale of Global Products Business for $2.65 Billion in Cash.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • KBW Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Community Bank Investor Conference 2022 (08/01/22-08/03/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • None of note.
  • Company Meetings: GECC.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: None of note.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • National Medical Association (NMA) (R) Annual Convention & Scientific Assembly (07/30/22-08/03/22)
        • Alzheimer Association International Conference (AAIC) 2022 (07/31/22-08/04/22)
        • Diggers & Dealers Mining Forum 2022 (07/31/22-08/03/22)
        • 30th Annual NNPDF Family Support & Medical Conference 2022 (07/28/22-08/01/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: