CAPIS Morning Note – 07/28/23: Stocks Sold Off Yesterday on BOJ Rumor, Overnight Rumor of Widening Range Became Reality and Now Stocks Are Higher Which Proves You Can’t Keep A Good Market Down.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.64% at 4537.41 from Wednesday lower by -0.02% at 4566.75. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4587.50 at 3:45 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4558 at 12:20 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 29 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.64% at 4537.41 from Wednesday lower by -0.02% at 4566.75. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4587.50 at 3:45 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4558 at 12:20 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 29 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 17.60 from 15.60 yesterday.  The average for May/June average was 19.94 from 21.63 in May. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by 20.25 points and by 0.44% at 7:25 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: MTH +1.57, SAM +1.34, SKYW +0.74, FSLR +0.59, KLAC +0.54, BZH +0.54, ROKU +0.50, CINF +0.47, SKX +0.44, KNSL +0.40, HURN +0.38, LYV +0.37, ALSN +0.29, MGRC +0.25, TRP +0.24, AX +0.23, CUBI +0.19, ENPH +0.19, DECK +0.18, BJRI +0.18, F +0.18, TMUS +0.17, INTC +0.17, X +0.13, DXCM +0.11, WY +0.11, MHK +0.11, OLN +0.11, ATR +0.09, LPLA +0.08, HUBG +0.08, MDLZ +0.07, ACHC +0.06, EIX +0.06, EMN +0.06, PEB +0.06, SPSC +0.06, MTX +0.05, ESS +0.05, HIG +0.05, FBIN +0.04, VRSN +0.04, SNBR +0.04, JNPR +0.04, AJG +0.04, CUZ +0.03, DLR +0.03, TXRH +0.02, GLPI +0.01, LTC +0.01, OFC +0.01, AMH +0.01 of note
  • Flat: EQR, SLCA of note.
  • Misses: PFSI (0.51), APPF (0.29), MTD (0.28), ABCB (0.22), SSB (0.20), HLI (0.13), PFG (0.12), COUR (0.11), CP (0.11), UCTT (0.09), BYD (0.09), SG (0.07), NATI (0.07), AB (0.05), SSNC (0.05), PEAK (0.04), AXNX (0.03), ENSG (0.02), CWST (0.01), EXPO (0.01), FHI (0.01) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Janover Inc. (JNVR) Announces Closing of $5.65 Million Initial Public Offering.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • INZY: prices offering 12.5M shares at $4.80 per share.
    • TNXP: Pricing of $7 Million Public Offering.. 7,000,000 shares @$1.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CVNA: Fully Satisfies Public Issuance Requirements of Previously Announced Exchange Offer Transaction Support Agreement, Raising $225 Million Through At-the-Market Equity Offering Program.
    • GMVD: Filed Form F-1.. Up to 26,471,000 Ordinary Shares.
    • INZY: Proposed Offering of Common Stock.. $60,000,000 of shares. (BAC, TD and Piper bookmanager)
    • MCOM: Filed Form 424B2.. 8,500,000 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • TNXP: Proposed Public Offering. (Alliance Global bookmanager)
    • XOS: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 100,000,000 Shares of our Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • OVV: Files for 31,777,596 shares of common stock by selling shareholder.
    • TBIO: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 30,042,550 Shares of CommonStock Offered by the Selling Securityholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • CHPT: Secures $150 Million Revolving Credit Facility with JP Morgan, HSBC, Citi and Goldman Sachs.
  • Tender Offer:
    • Nano Dimension (NNDM) Intends to Discontinue its Stratasys Special Tender Offer and Withdraw Director Nominees for Stratasys Board.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: SIGA +20%, COUR +10%, SAM +10%, ROKU +8%, INTC +8%, FSLR +7%, MSGS +7%, BJRI +6%, BZH +5%, PFS +4%, TBBK +4%, TRP +4%, ALSN +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: SNBR -27%, ENPH -12%, SG -12%, SSNC -9%, JNPR -7%, UCTT -6%, INZY -6%, MTD -5%, VRSN -5%, EBC -5%, MHK -4%, SLCA -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: INTC, F, ROKU, ENPH, FSLR, SG, DXCM, TMUS, SAM (CNBC)
    • US Government Shutdown Threatened As Congress Departs For August. (Bloomberg)
    • Intel (INTC) stock rallies after earnings show AI data-center beat, strong PC sales. (MarketWatch)
    • United States Steel (X) CEO: “Customer demand has been robust for our NGO steels and we are pleased to announce that we’ve already secured our first customer orders in both industrial and electric vehicle markets.”
    • Ford  (F) CFO says slowdown in ev demand for the industry is because the vehicles are too expensive, not because of demand.  New UAW labor contract will raise costs Ford CFO says company still aiming for 150k annual production rate for lightning this year. (Bloomberg)
    • Skechers (SKX) stock rallies as international gains lift results above estimates. (MarketWatch)
    • Fluor (FLR) Awarded More Than $1 Billion in Life Sciences Contracts.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Index Changes:
      • Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) will replace Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings (AJRD) in the S&P SmallCap 600.
    • DELL and Anthony Charles Whitten, the Co-Chief Operating Officer, agreed that Mr. Whitten will resign from his position as Co-Chief Operating Officer effective as of August 18, 2023
    • GameStop (GME) says its finance chief, Diana Saadeh-Jajeh, will be resigning on August 11.
    • NatWest Group plc (NWG) announces Alison Rose stepped down as Chief Executive Officer.
    • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (NAVB) Hires Craig A. Dais, CPA as Chief Financial Officer.
    • Nu Skin (NUS) appoints James Thomas as CFO after serving as interim.
    • The Real Brokerage (REAX) to Voluntarily Delist From Toronto Stock Exchange; Will Continue to Trade on the Nasdaq.
    • Sleep Number (SNBR) announces the appointment of Francis Lee to Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
    • United Insurance (UIHC) announces name and ticker change to American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC).
    • VNET Announces Changes to Leadership Team.
    • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) Announces CFO Transition.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Enphase Energy (ENPH) Announces New Share Repurchase Program of up to $1.0 billion.
    • Iridium (IRDM) Board of Directors Approves Additional $400 Million Share Repurchase Program; Authorizations Now Total $1 Billion.
    • SS&C (SSNC) announced its Board of Directors (“Board”) has authorized the renewal of the stock repurchase program, which will enable the Company to repurchase up to $1 billion in the aggregate of the Company’s outstanding shares of common stock.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • BIOL trading r/s price
    • INVO trading r/s price
    • UPC trading r/s price
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Archrock (AROC) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.155 per share, up $0.005
    • Baker Hughes (BKR) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.01 to $0.20 per share.
    • Boise Cascade Company (BCC) Announces 33% Quarterly Dividend Increase to $0.20 per share, up $0.05.
    • Clorox (CLX) raises quarterly dividend $0.02 to $1.20 per share.
    • Community Healthcare Trust (CHCT) raises annual dividend $0.01 to $1.81 per share.
    • Principal Fincl (PFG) hikes dividend 2% to $0.65 per share.
    • Republic Services (RSG) increases quarterly cash dividend 4% to $0.535 per share.
    • Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) raises its quarterly dividend 1.3% to $0.81 per share.
    • Voya Financial (VOYA) Board of Directors doubles common stock dividend to $0.40 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note:
    • AutoNation (AN): CFO sold 10000 shares at $150.61 worth ~$1.506 million.
    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): HR Officer sold 20000 shares at $170.32 worth ~$3.41 million.
    • SLB Chief Accounting Officer sold 17500 shares at $57.97 worth ~$1.01 million.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +26, Dow Jones +126,  NASDAQ +146, and Russell 2000 +13.  (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia lower ex South Korea and Europe higher ex France this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.30 from 14.75 from 15.40  from yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.963% from 3.871%. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $29,198 from $29,508 yesterday, higher by 0.19%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Utilities, Basic Materials, Energy, Financial of note.
  • One Month Winners: Financials, Real Estate, Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Basic Materials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Thursday, ending a streak of 13 consecutive winning sessions.  The Dow’s run of gains was the longest since 1987 and the second-longest on record. The blue-chip index fell 237 points on Thursday, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5%. Stocks were in the green for much of the session, losing steam in the afternoon.  The major indexes were little-changed for the week, as investors weighed continued economic strength and stronger earnings than many on Wall Street had expected.   U.S. government bond prices fell, sending yields higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note settled at 4.011%, up from 3.85% Wednesday, marking the biggest one-day climb since September. The 2-year Treasury yield, which tends to be more sensitive to policy expectations, rose to 4.939%, from 4.825%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield rose to 4.058%, from 3.927%.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: AZN +1.16, SNY +0.81, IMO +0.31, TROW +0.29, GTLS +0.24, BCPC +0.22, BAH +0.22, DAN +0.20, SAIA +0.14, CHD +0.12, NWL +0.11, CRI +0.10, NVT +0.09, WPC +0.07, CNC +0.05, PG +0.05, CNHI +0.04, B +0.04, CL +0.02, STVN +0.01, WT +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: ARCB (0.50), MOG.A (0.10), XOM (0.09), AON (0.07), POR (0.05), PIPR (0.05), CVX (0.04), STEL (0.02), AVTR (0.01), CHTR (0.01), FHB (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: ABR, BEN, GNTX, NMRK of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: MAS, NEOG, PRCT, AGCO, EME, ITGR, RCL, EOLS, AXNX,INTC, ROKU, KLAC, MGRC, HURN, MDLZ, ACHC, APPF, COUR, ESS, EQR, CWST, ATR, AZN, CHD, WPC, MOG.A  of note.
  • Negative Guidance: TSCO, TREE, BMY, LH, OPCH, AMT, CROX, SPGI, SHYF, PRFT, TRS, HON, DLR, CP, DECK, ENPH, SSNC, HUBG, MTD, MHK, EMN, JNPR, EOSE, NWL of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: SIGA +28%, COUR +15%, ROKU +10%, SAM +9%, FSLR +8%, BJRI +8%, SIMO +7%, INTC +7%, DDD +7%, MSGS +5%, BLD +5%, MTH +5%, PFS +4%, BZH +4%, SKX +4%, AZN +4%, TRP +4%, CUBI +4%, ALSN +4%, DXCM +4%, POR +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: SNBR -26%, ENPH -15%, SG -11%, GOGO -11%, JNPR -9%, SSNC -9%, UCTT -8%, INZY -7%, OLN -6%, MTD -6%, HLI -5%, EBC -5% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things to Know Before The Stock Market Opens This Morning (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves Premarket: INTC ROKU PG BIIB CVX F (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Global Bonds Slide on Surprise BOJ Move. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: BOJ Sends Yields Soaring With Surprise Change to Rate Limit. (Bloomberg)
  • Why BOJ policy tweak matters. (CNBC)
  • Exxon (XOM) misses on estimates as natural gas and refining hurt results. (Bloomberg)
  • Enphase (ENPH) tumbles -15.6% on another miss. (MarketWatch)
  • Procter & Gamble (PG) beat on estimates, but driven by price increases and not unit sales. (CNBC)
  • NPR Marketplace: Call a customer service line and odds are you’ll hear that “unusually high call volume” is making you wait. But automated messages and long wait times seem to have become the norm. We won’t put you on hold to find out why. Plus, the economy just keeps on growing and businesses stock up on inventory again. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News:July set to be the warmest month on record. (Podcast) 
  • NY Times Daily: Menopause is having a moment. (Podcast)
  • Bloomberg Podcast: How angry should the UK be with the Bank of England? (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • So close.  Score retreats to 62% from 94%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House at 10:10 a.m. EDT en route to Joint Base Andrews arrives in Auburn, Maine at 12:20 p.m. EDT
    • The President discusses how Bidenomics is driving a manufacturing boom and helping workers and innovators invent and make more in America, 1:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Auburn, Maine en route to Brunswick, Maine 2:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a campaign reception, 4:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Brunswick, Maine at 5:25 p.m. EDT en route to Dover, Delaware and arrives in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware at 7:30 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Employment Cost Index 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • June Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.5% from 0.4%.
  • June PCE Prices Core is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.2% from 0.3%.
  • July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final) is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to remain at 72.60.
  • Michigan Inflation Expectations 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EDT
  • Farm Prices 3:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  None of note.

M&A Activity: 

  • Biogen (BIIB) confirms deal to acquire RETA for $172.50/share, representing enterprise value of $7.3 billion.
  • TopBuild (BLD) to Acquire Specialty Products & Insulation In All-Cash Transaction Valued at $960 Million.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: