CAPIS Morning Note – 07/25/23: FOMC Begins Meeting, Announcement Tomorrow. Stock Modestly Higher.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.40% at 4554.64 from Friday higher by 0.03% at 4536. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4593.25 at 4:45 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4579.75 at 9:50 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 14 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is…

Overnight Summary:

The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.40% at 4554.64 from Friday higher by 0.03% at 4536. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4593.25 at 4:45 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4579.75 at 9:50 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 14 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 13.50 from 13.70 yesterday.  The average for May/June average was 19.94 from 21.63 in May. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +5.50 points and by 0.12% at 7:15 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: WHR +0.45, SSD +0.44, PKG +0.38, FFIV +0.35, NUE +0.28, NXPI +0.15, CATY +0.15, LOGI +0.15, BRO +0.08, RRC +0.08, RGP +0.07, WSFS +0.06, ARE +0.05, CCK +0.05, CHX +0.05, CDNS +0.04, HSTM +0.04, AGYS +0.04, HXL +0.02, MEDP +0.02, NXGN +0.02 of note
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: AGNC (1.87), NWE (0.15), IBTX (0.06), TBI (0.06), CADE (0.04), RLI (0.03), ZWS (0.03), CLF (0.01), of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Earlyworks Co., Ltd. (ELWS) Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering. 1,200,000 American Depositary Shares @$5.
    • Janover Inc. (JNVR) Announces Pricing of $5.65 Million Initial Public Offering and Nasdaq Listing.
    • Warrantee Inc. (WRNT) Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • PSA: Prices Public Offering of Senior Notes to Fund Simply Self Storage Transaction.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ARGX: Announces closing of global offering.
    • DUO: Announces Plan to Implement ADS Ratio Change.
    • NCPL: Announces Closing of Public Offering.
    • NMTC: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Benchmark bookmanager)
    • SDA: Filed Form F-1.. Up to 3,050,000 Class A Ordinary Shares Issuable Upon Exercise of Warrants SunCar Technology Group Inc.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • CBIO: Filed Form S-3.. 1,240,442,745 Shares COMMON STOCK Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
    • VRDN: files for 243,902 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • SOUN: Form S-3 Filed — $400 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • AGE: Closes $36,000,000 Debt Exchange for Preferred Stock.
  • Tender Offer:
    • Lilly (LLY) Announces Extension of Tender Offer to Acquire DICE for a purchase price of $48 per share in cash.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: FFIV +8%, APE +6%, NXGN +4%, IPAR +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: SOUN -17%, TBI -12%, AMC -11%, CDNS -4%, MEDP -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: NXPI, WHR, CDNS, FFIV (CNBC)
    • FDIC Scolds Banks for Manipulating Deposit Data. BAC, HBAN (WSJ)
    • ‘We Were Wrong’: Morgan Stanley’s (MS) Wilson Offers Stocks Mea Culpa. (Bloomberg)
    • Packaging maker Crown Holdings’ (CCK) sales drop as inflation, ‘challenging’ economic conditions hurt business. (MarketWatch)
    • F5 (FFIV) stock rallies as earnings beat Street view. (MarketWatch)
    • AMC’s Revised Ape Deal Goes Back to Judge on Expedited Timeline. (CourtFiling)
    • ONEOK’s (OKE) Pierce Manufacturing awarded $890 million U.S. Defense Logistics Agency contract.
    • Huntington Ingalls (HII) awarded $528 million U.S. Navy contract.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Bionomics (BNOX) Announces Intention to Delist from the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).
    • Boston Beer (SAM) Names Diego Reynoso Chief Financial Officer And Treasurer. (MarketWatch)
    • GAME: Lou Schwartz Appointed Chairman of GameSquare.
    • Markel (MKL) announces senior leadership appointments within Markel Specialty division.
    • MingZhu Logistics (YGMZ) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Requirements.
    • Pheon Therapeutics (BLUE) Appoints Industry Veteran Cyrus Mozayeni, MD as Chief Executive Officer.
    • Ucommune (UK) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Armstrong World Industries (AWI) adds $500 million to share buyback program.
    • MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (MCFT) Announces New $50 Million Share Repurchase Authorization.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Hess Midstream Partners (HESM) increases quarterly distribution to $0.6011 per share from $0.5851.
    • MDC Holdings (MDC) increases quarterly cash dividend 10% to $0.55 per share.
    • MSCI declares cash dividend of $1.38 for third quarter.
    • Southern Missouri Bancorp (SMBC) Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.21 Per Common Share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +5, Dow Jones +20,  NASDAQ +56, and Russell 2000 -1. (as of 7:55 a.m. EDT).  Asia higher ex Japan while Europe higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.40 from 15.70 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher as well as Natural Gas. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.898% from 3.804% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $29,188 from $29,306 yesterday, higher by 0.25%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical, Financial, Basic Materials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare of note.
  • One Month Winners: Financials, Real Estate, Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Basic Materials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Stocks climbed to start the week, extending the Dow’s winning streak to its longest in six years, while a blowout weekend at the box office lifted cinema stocks and pointed to strength in the consumer economy.  Movie mania, led by the “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” releases, drew more than $300 million in North American ticket sales Friday through Sunday, the latest sign U.S. households are still primed to spend. Surprising economic strength, despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive series of interest-rate hikes, has lifted the major indexes this year as more investors have shifted to bet against an imminent recession.   The broad S&P 500 rose 0.4% Monday, and the Nasdaq added 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 183.55, or 0.5%, its 11th consecutive day of gains.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: MLI +0.72, ABG +0.71, PHM +0.69, SHW +0.59, MMM +0.44, PJT +0.38, HUBB +0.35, ADM +0.30, ALK +0.29, BIIB +0.25, GE +0.22, PII +0.21, KMB +0.17, MSCI +0.15, SBSI +0.12, XRX +0.12, RTX +0.11, SFNC+0.08, AUB +0.07, NEE +0.07, AWI +0.07, NEP +0.06, DOW +0.05, GEHC +0.05, GM +0.05, MCO +0.05, VZ +0.04, DHR +0.04, TRU +0.03, ARCC +0.02, ST +0.02, SITC +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: GLW +0.00, BKU +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: HRI (0.42), IRDM (0.28), DOV (0.15), HOUS (0.13), AVY (0.13), IVZ (0.09), SASR (0.06), LTH (0.02) of note.
  • Still to Report: ACI, CTS, FELE, GATX, LW, NVR, ONB, PCAR, SPOT of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: CDNS, MEDP, IPAR, AWI, PII, GE, GM, RTX, SHW, HUBB  of note.
  • Negative Guidance: TBI, HXL, CCK, SIGI, ZWS, CHX, PKG, LOGI, ST, TRU, AVY, LTH, GLW of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: FFIV +10%, LOGI +6%, HSTM +5%, ZWS +5%, UL +5%, MCFT +4%, IPAR +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: TBI -12%, SOUN -7%, AMC -6%, DHR -5%, CDNS -4%, ALK -4% of note.

Insider Action: VRCA sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things to Know Before The Stock Market Opens This Morning (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Clash of the Fed Hawks and Doves Over Rates Continues. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: The Bear Market Has Nearly Been Erased, Fewer Than 20 Months After it Began -note this is on for the second day. (Bloomberg)
  • China higher as Beijing vows more measures to boost weak economy. (CNBC)
  • Stocks edge higher as traders await earnings, Fed: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • General Motors (GM) raises full-year guidance, announces deeper cost-cutting. (CNBC)
  • Spotify (SPOT) drops on revenue miss and weak guidance. (CNBC)
  • NPR Marketplace: Popularized by Milton Friedman in the 1960s, the phrase “long and variable lag” refers to the idea that it takes time for monetary policy to be felt in the economy, and the Federal Reserve uses it a lot. How did it go from concept to conventional wisdom? Today, part one of our answer. We’ll also outline a big week ahead for the world’s central banks and the ripple effects of a potential UPS strike. (Podcast)
  • The New York Times Daily: Russia’s newest target is the global food supply. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: Demonstrations continue in Israel. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score improves to 82% from 77%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President signs a proclamation to establish the Emmett Till and Mamie Till-Mobley National Monument in Illinois and Mississippi; The Vice President participates, 12:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks on expanding access to mental health care, 3:00 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 3:30 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • FHFA HPI 9:00 a.m. EDT
  • May S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to -1.90% from -1.70%.
  • July Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to 111.50 from 109.70.
  • Richmond Fed Mfg Index 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT
  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is due out after the close for the period of June 28th through July 12th. During that period, the S&P 500 rose 2.18%. We expect to see some short covering.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • The Fed Blackout Period has begun. No Fed speakers between now and the FOMC Wed. 07/26/23.

M&A Activity:

  • Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) Announces Agreement to Acquire American National Bankshares Inc. (AMNB).
  • CareDx (CDNA) announces the acquisition of MediGO.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: