CAPIS Morning Note – 07/25/22: Federal Reserve Action Will Dominate The Action This Week. Stocks Rebound After Friday Selloff.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 3961.63 (lower by -0.93%) from 3998.95 (higher by 0.99%) on Thursday.  Futures are trading higher in the premarket session. The overnight high of 3986 was hit at 7:08 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3952.25 at 3:25 a.m. EDT, a range of 34 points high to…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 3961.63 (lower by -0.93%) from 3998.95 (higher by 0.99%) on Thursday.  Futures are trading higher in the premarket session. The overnight high of 3986 was hit at 7:08 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3952.25 at 3:25 a.m. EDT, a range of 34 points high to low which is below the range of late with 45 the average range. At 7:30 a.m. EDT the current price is 3989.75 which is 0.29% and -11.50 points. 

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • RVMD: Closing of Upsized Public Offering of Common Stock and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ALVO: Filed Form F-1.. Up to 15,306,122 Ordinary Shares.
    • CLXT: Filed Form S-3.. 7,760,000 Shares of Common Stock Underlying Outstanding Warrants.
    • SBIG: Filed Form S-1.. 5,055,524 Common Shares.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • CRSR: Filed Form S-3.. 54,179,559 Shares Common Stock Offered by the Selling Securityholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CRSR: Filed Form S-3.. $300 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • EFX: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • MCW: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf offering.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: AMTD 79.7%, TRHC 69.8%, CYH 33.4%, RYTM 31.3%, FTCH 27.1%, HNGR 25.0%, TAL 22.0%, QRTEA 21.3%, RGEN 20.7%, NEWR 20.4%, CMTL 19.9%, NOVT 19.8%, SHOP 19.3%, IRBT 19.1%, CVNA 19.0%, ADTN 18.6%.
    • Trading Down: HCSG -25.2%, NVTA -23.3%, RARE -20.5%, CLVS -19.0%, SIGA -18.7%, ATRA -15.8%, RIGL -14.1%, MGNX -14.0%, KURA -12.7%, TCDA -12.6%, OPK -12.1%, CLAR -11.4%, SIVB -11.4%, STIM -11.3%, DQ -10.7%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • T-Mobile US (TMUS) settles litigation related to class action lawsuit relating to cyberattack. (MarketWatch)
    • 2 children in the U.S. have tested positive for monkeypox, (CDC) Some names SIGA TNXP GOVX  monkey pox.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • The Week in Business: Amazon’s (AMZN) Latest Acquisition.  (NYT)
    • China Evergrande C.E.O. Resigns After Loans Come Under Scrutiny. (NYT)
    • U.S. Risks Deeper Downturn If Fed Has to Fight Inflation Alone. (WSJ)
    • Retailers Need to Ace their Back-to-School Season. (WSJ)
    • Apple (AAPL) to slow hiring, but avoiding layoffs for now. (Bloomberg)
    • Boeing (BA) Union Workers Reject Contract Offer, Call For Strike. (Reuters)
    • Bond Traders Regaining Faith That Fed Can Slay Inflation Dragon. (Bloomberg)
    • Australian Prime Minister Albanese Calls For China To End Trade Sanctions On Australia – (Sky)
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: AMZN, ASO, VTRS, TDOC, ADT, CLVT, POST, COTY, YUM.
      • Cautious View: NSC, UNP, CSX, CNR.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Gorilla (GRRR) Appoints New Chief Financial Officer.
    • Materials (MP) to join S&P MidCap 400 before the open on July 27.
    • PerkinElmer (PKI) Elects Dr. Michelle McMurry-Heath to its Board of Directors.
    • Rail Vision Ltd. (RVSN) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Requirements.
    • SOS Regains Compliance with NYSE Minimum Price Continued Listing Criterion.
    • WWE Chief Executive and Chairman Vince McMahon will retire, barely a month after stepping back from his roles due to an investigation into alleged misconduct (Reuters) 
  • Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • PSA: Announces $2.3 Billion Special Dividend Related to PS Business Parks Merger Consideration.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +16, Dow Jones +142, NASDAQ +48, and Russell 2000 +8. Europe higher and Asia lower.  VIX Futures are at 25.44 from 26.30 Friday morning and the VIX closed at 23.03 from 23.88 yesterday. Gold higher, Silver lower and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Oil Futures higher and Natural Gas higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.812% from 2.818% yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $22,009 from $23,444 Friday morning and is lower by -3.23% this morning. As of 8:06 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – 07/22/22 Close (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Energy, Basic Materials, Healthcare, Financial, Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrials  of note.
  • Three Month Winners: none of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Indexes were up early, with the SP hitting 4,012.44 before closing out the day in the red prior to the weekend.  Even with the lower close the indexes finished with weekly gains.  Updated 07/22/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: CDNS, NXPI, ARE, BRO, PKG, ACC, LOGI, WHR, FFIV, UHS, RNR, AGNC, CR, MEDP, HXL, SSD, CADE, PCH, CATY, IBTX, CALX, WSFS, LBRT, WIRE, HTLF, NTB, BDN, CLS, KALU, HSTM, TBI of note.
  • Tuesday Before the Open: KO, MCD, UPS, RTX, MMM, GE, FISV, UBS, MCO, CNC, GM, KMB, ECL, ADM, PCAR, GLW, NVR, PHM, HUBB, WSO, ARCC, PNR, PII, GPK, ST, IRDM, ONB, NSP, AWI, AVNT, FELE, CVLT, NEOG, XRX, SSTK, CTS of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: SQSP + 0.24, BOH +0.03, SBSI +0.03, CBU +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: NEM (0.15), PHG (0.07), RPM (0.04), DORM (0.02).
  • Still to Report: LKFN.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: RPM of note.
  • Negative Guidance: SQSP, DORM of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 07/22/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: SIGA +15%, GRRR +11%, BW +5%.
  • Gap Down: ALVO -15%, PHG -10%, MCW -4%

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 07/22/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: NEM SQSP PHG PSA JD. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan disagree on outlook of the Fed pivot. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Fed to inflict more pain on economy with bug rate increase. (Bloomberg)
  • Macau reopens casinos. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia struck Odessa throwing cold water on the idea of a grain deal to get out of Ukraine and feed people. (NYT)
  • EU nations want exemptions on plan to lower natural gas demand. (FT)
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen was interviewed on Meet The Press over the weekend and believes economy will slow but no recession. (NBC News)
  • Senate to vote Tuesday on Semiconductor Bill but questions remain whether it can pass the house. (WSJ)
  • Tesla (TSLA) to let other  manufacturers use its chargers. (WSJ)
  • Apple’s (AAPL) Apple TV+ considered to be a frontrunner for NFL Sunday Ticket. (NYT)
  • Pfizer (PFE) use of the antiviral is lower than expected. (FT)
  • Boeing (BA) workers in St. Louis to strike over pay. (Reuters)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains exactly at 80%…again! (Had to check the calculations to make sure this was the case).  Updated 07/22/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 9:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President delivers virtual remarks to the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives Conference, 12:30 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and COVID-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha, 3:10 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • Chicago Fed Activity Index 8:30 a.m. EDT 
  • Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 a.m. EDT 

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Fed Speakers are on a Blackout Period into the FOMC Meeting. Blackout Period from July 16-July 28.

M&A Activity:

  • NexPoint (NXDT) Extends Offer to Purchase Up to All Shares of United Development Funding IV (UDFI).

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • SVB Securities Big Data, A.I. & Machine Learning in Healthcare. (07/25/22-07/30/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • None of note.
  • Company Meetings: LIN, SNDL.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: NBXG
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Tuesday all day AMZN will hold its annual AWS re:Inforce learning conference focused on security, compliance, identity, and privacy issues. The event features access to hundreds of technical and business sessions..
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Basic Cardiovascular Sciences (BCVS) Scientific Sessions 2022 (07/25/22-07/28/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Federation of Defense & Corporate Counsel (FDCC) Annual Meeting 2022 (07/23/22-07/30/22)
        • American Association for Clinical Chemistry (AACC) Annual Scientific Meeting and Clinical Lab Exposition 2022 (07/24/22-07/28/22)
        • The 24th International Symposium on the Photochemistry and Photophysics of Coordination Compounds 2022 (07/24/22-07/29/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: