CAPIS Morning Note – 07/21/23: Stocks Look To Close the Week Out Higher.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.68% at 4534.87 from Wednesday higher by 0.24% at 4565.72. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4578.75 at 6:30 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4561.75 at 8:20 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 17 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.68% at 4534.87 from Wednesday higher by 0.24% at 4565.72. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4578.75 at 6:30 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4561.75 at 8:20 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 17 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 14.90 from 14.60 yesterday.  The average for May/June average was 19.94 from 21.63 in May. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by  +11.50 points and by 0.25% at 7:15 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: COF 0.26, PPG 0.11, ISRG 0.09, ASB 0.07, WRB 0.06, OZK 0.05, BANF 0.03, GBCI 0.01 of note
  • Flat: CSX of note.
  • Misses: HTH -0.12, KNX -0.05, FFBC -0.01 of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • ESH Acquisition Corp. (ESHA) Announces Upcoming Automatic Unit Separation.
    • M3-brigade Acquisition Iii Corp. (MBSC) Announces Intention To Extend Period To Consummate Initial Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • ALTG: Announces Pricing of 2.2 million shares at $16.25 share upsized Secondary Offering of Common Stock.
    • TSBX: Announces Pricing of Upsized Initial Public Offering.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ALTG: Announces Proposed Secondary Offering of 2 million shares of Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering:
    • JZXN: Announces Closing of $2.3 Million Registered Direct Offering.
    • LIXT: Announces Closing of $3.5 Million Registered Direct Offering and Concurrent Private Placement Priced At-the-Market under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • DTI: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 26,990,264 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
    • ICU: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 1,096,972 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
    • SLNA: Files for 8,509,056 shares of common stock by selling shareholders, relates to warrants.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • HITI: Filed Form F-10.. $100 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • NMR: Filed Form F-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • PLUR: Filed Form S-3 $200 Million Security Shelf.
    • WKHS: Files $200 Million Mixed Securities Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • GSM: Announces the Notice of Redemption of $150 million of its 9.375% Senior Secured Notes Due 2025.
    • IBRX: Announces execution of $40 million equity financing with institutional investors.
    • PDM: Announces Closing of Senior Notes Offering.
    • RYAM: Raises $250 Million of Debt to Refinance its 2024 Notes, Improving Financial Position to Support Future Growth Opportunities
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • Liberty Media (LSXMA LSXMB) Announces Adjustment to the Media Component of the Securities Basket for its 1.375% Cash Convertible Senior Notes Due 2023.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: DWAC +30%, RYAM +11%, SCHL +8%, SFBS +5%CDXS +4%, ADCT +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: SLNA +4%, ISRG -4%, CSX -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: CSX, PPG, KNX, ISRG, COF, SCHL (CNBC)
    • U.S. Federal Trade Commission Withdraws Case Seeking To Block Microsoft’s (MSFT) Acquisition Of Activision (ATVI) (MarketWatch)
    • MORGAN STANLEY: “.. We are making a sizable upward revision to #GDP this year (+0.70% to 1.3% 4Q/4Q) with the largest contribution coming from .. stronger than expected .. public investment .. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act .. is driving a boom ..” (Carl Q CNBC)
    • Intuitive Surgical’s (ISRG) stock falls on an earnings miss. (MarketWatch)
    • Scholastic (SCHL) stock jumps 6% as publishing company calls for up to 5% revenue growth for the year. (MarketWatch)
    • Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) soars +15% after SEC announces settled fraud charges. (Release)
    • Rithm Capital (RITM) announces the purchase of $1.4 billion of prime unsecured consumer loans from The Goldman Sachs Group (GS).
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • AMZN announced it will be reporting its Q2 earnings after the markets close on Thursday, August 3rd.
    • Brenmiller Energy Ltd. (BNRG) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Notification.
    • Chewy (CHWY) announces that Mario Marte, CFO,  has decided to retire from the Company. (MarketWatch)
    • EQT Appoints Jeremy Knop as New Chief Financial Officer.
    • Genelux Corporation (GNLX) Strengthens Senior Management and Clinical Team with Promotions and New Hires.
    • Lottery.com (LTRY) Announces Changes to Executive Management Team and Board of DirectorsNew Funding Agreement Reached with United Capital Investments London, Ltd.
    • Shapeways (SHPW) to Transfer Listing to Nasdaq.
    • SWVL: Obtains Extension for Filing of Annual Report on Form 20-F and Receives Approval to Transfer to The Nasdaq Capital Market.
    • Theratechnologies (THTX) Announces the Resignation of One of Its Directors, Mr. Gary Littlejohn.
    • TortoiseEcofin Acquisition Corp. III (TRTL) Announces Letter of Intent for a Business Combination with an Industrial Renewable Power Solutions Company.
    • Valero Energy (VLO) promotes Gary Simmons as COO of Valero.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Bio-Rad Labs (BIO) announces new $500 mln share repurchase program.
    • SCHL: Board Approves $100 Million Increase in Share Repurchase Authorization.
  • Stock Splits or News: 
    • Bluejay Diagnostics (BJDX) Announces 1-20 Reverse Stock Split to gain Nasdaq compliance.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Con Edison (ED) Declares Common Stock Dividend.
    • IMOS ChipMOS announced $1.477 cash dividend per ADS,
    • Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Announces $0.40 Per Share Quarterly Cash Dividend.
    • State Street (STT) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.06 to $0.69 per share.
    • Synchrony Financial (SYF) increases quarterly dividend 9% to $0.25 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +11, Dow Jones +3,  NASDAQ +70, and Russell 2000 +10. (as of 7:55 a.m. EDT).  Asia lower ex the Kospi (South Korea) while Europe higher ex Germany this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.70 from 15.95 yesterday.  Gold lower, Silver higher and Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher as well as Natural Gas. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.839% from 3.787% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at$29,754 from  $30,388 yesterday, higher by 0.11%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Healthcare, Energy of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Real Estate  of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Basic Materials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose Thursday for a ninth consecutive session, while a post-earnings selloff in Tesla (TSLA) shares weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.  The Dow rose about 160 points, or 0.5%, to clinch its longest winning streak since September 2017. The S&P 500 declined 0.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq pulled back 2.1%. The Dow outperformed the Nasdaq by the widest one-day percentage-point margin since March 2021.  Though the 2023 stock-market rally has been broadening in recent weeks, most of this year’s gains have been driven by a small group of mega cap tech stocks, including Tesla. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are weighted by market cap, so the biggest companies have a greater influence on index performance than the smallest ones. That makes the major indexes vulnerable to a pullback if a few heavyweights fall.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

  

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: ALV +0.52, AN +0.38, CMA +0.15, IPG +0.13, ROP +0.13, AXP +0.08, SLB +0.01, HBAN +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: RF of note.
  • Misses: SXT (0.07) of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: SMCI, MATX, CDXS, ALTG, EVTC, ROP of note.
  • Negative Guidance: KNX, QBTS, SXT of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: DWAC +20%, EBS +16%, RYAM +9%, SCHL +8%, SFBS +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: IXHL -8%, SLNA -6%, CSX -5%, ISRG -5%, OZK -4%, KNX -4%, ALTG -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things to Know Before The Stock Market Opens This Morning (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: If Trump Wins a Second Term, He’ll Target His Enemies, Migrants and China. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Billionaire Sternlicht Sees “Category 5 Hurricane” Spurred By Fed Rate Hikes. (Bloomberg)
  • US Futures gain; Yen Sinks as BOJ on hold: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Dow Jones registers longest winning streak since 2017. (CNBC)
  • Chinese Hackers breached email accounts of top US diplomats. (CNBC)
  • US Recession call become a “closer call” as economists rethink forecasts. (Bloomberg)
  • Airline cargo revenue is catering. Why that’s actually good news. (CNBC)
  • UPS Strike would deal a blow to Inflation Fight, Supply Chain. (Bloomberg)
  • Investors dash to cash may have peaked says Bank of America. (Reuters)
  • Sirius (SIRI) pulls back 9% this morning after a 42% rally yesterday. (MarketWatch)
  • NPR Most Recent Business Podcast:  Accessing medical records isn’t always easy for doctors, and the gaps and disorganization that result can pose serious risks for patients. NPR looks at what fragmentation means for our health care and what we can do to fix it. We’ll also examine whether the monthly Leading Economic Index is still a good recession predictor? Last NPR looks at the Women’s World Cup. (Listen)
  • New York Times The Daily Show: Can Barbie be Rebranded? (Listen)

Moving Average Update:

  • All good things come to an end.  The 7 day streak of all green has been interrupted by the SPX and NASDAQ breaching very short term 5 day moving averages.  You can see how far below the longer term (50 and 200 day) are.  Score goes to 88%

 

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks on Artificial Intelligence, 1:30 p.m. EDT (Release)

Economic:

  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • The Fed Blackout Period has begun. No Fed speakers between now and the FOMC Wed. 07/26/23.
  • The Fed Announces A July 27 Meeting To Discuss The Proposed Bank Rules.

M&A Activity:

  • Bowlero (BOWL) acquires Mavrix and Octane Raceway in Scottsdale.
  • Cadence Design (CDNS) acquires the Rambus SerDes (RMBS) and memory interface PHY IP business.
  • Chase Corp (CCF): KKR (KKR) will acquire all outstanding shares of Chase common stock for $127.50 per share in cash.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: MCK
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: EVTC, GVDNY, VTEX
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: