CAPIS Morning Note – 07/18/23: Retail Sales and Industrial Production Out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and 9:15 a.m. EDT. Stocks Off Slightly.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 4522.79 higher by 0.39% from Friday at 4505.42 lower by -0.10%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4555.75 at 4:35 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4546.50 at 9:50 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 9 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 16.80…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 4522.79 higher by 0.39% from Friday at 4505.42 lower by -0.10%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4555.75 at 4:35 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4546.50 at 9:50 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 9 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 16.80 from 16.70 yesterday.  The average for May/June average was 19.94 from 21.63 in May. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by  points and is lower by -0.09% at 7:15 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note
  • Flat: ELS of note.
  • Misses:  of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

    

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Colombier Acquisition Corp. (CLBR) Announces Requests to Redeem Public Shares.
    • Priveterra Acquisition Corp. (PMGM) Announces Authorization to List on NYSE Upon Completion of Business Combination with AEON Biopharma, Inc.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • BECN: Announces Pricing of Upsized $600 Million Senior Secured Notes Offering.
    • CVM: Pricing of Public Offering 2.5M shares @$2. (ThinkEquity bookmanager)
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • CRGY: Announces Pricing of Upsized $300 Million Private Placement of Additional 9.250% Senior Notes Due 2028.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ABOS: Announces Proposed Public Offering of $100 million Common Stock.
    • ARGX: launch of proposed global offering – $750 million (approximately €668.6 million) of ordinary shares. (JPM, MS, GS, BAC and TD Bookmanagers)
    • BTM: Form S-1.. Up to 83,747,027 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • BCYC: Announces Closing of Public Offering of American Depositary Shares and Non-Voting Ordinary Shares and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
    • CMND: Filed Form F-1.. up to $7.0 million of Common Shares.
    • CVM: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • NAOV: Filed Form S-1.. Common Stock and Warrants offering.
    • SDA: Filed Form F-1 15,339,951 Class A Ordinary Shares.
    • SPCB: Filed Form F-1 .. Sell Units.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • PRG: Secures First Funding with Over $100M from Spectrum Equity.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • LSEA: Announces Private Placement of $250 million in Senior Unsecured Notes.
  • Tender Offer:
    • NNDM: Increases Its Proposed Price to $25.00 per Share in Cash  in its Special Tender Offer Price for Stratasys Shares.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: FBK +14%, ATRO +5%, KPTI +5%, PTCT +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: MASI -23%, CVM -17%, ABOS -10%, ROST -4% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Bank of America Says Credit Market Bears In Retreat As Recession Fears Ease. (Bloomberg)
    • JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Sees ‘Modestly Wider’ Path To Soft Landing. (Bloomberg)
    • Arbitration Panel Finds that Syneos Health (NASDAQ: SYNH) Failed to Use Commercially Reasonable Efforts in Conducting its Trial for FSD 201.
    • More Americans Are Getting Turned Down For Loans, Fed Data Shows. GM F TM TSLA (Bloomberg)
    • Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong Set To Meet With House Democrats. (Bloomberg)
    • RTX and Northrop Grumman (NOC) awarded follow-on contract from DARPA for hypersonic weapon advancements.
    • Elbit Systems (ESLT) Awarded $150 Million Contract to Supply PULS Rocket Artillery Systems to an International Customer.
    • Ark’s (ARKK) CEO Cathie Wood Says Ark’s Best New Investment Idea Is Teradyne (TER).

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Advanced Emissions Solutions (ADES) Announces CEO Transition.
    • Bird (BRDS) Receives NYSE Notice of Compliance with Listing Standard.
    • BlackRock (BLK) named Saudi Aramco CEO Amin H. Nasser to its board of directors. (Bloomberg)
    • Envirotech Vehicles (EVTV) Announces Strategic Hiring and Realignment Among Leadership Team.
    • IronNet (IRNT) Announces Intention to Voluntarily Delist Securities from New York Stock Exchange.
    • Larimar Therapeutics (LRMR) names Russell “Rusty” Clayton, DO, as Chief Medical Officer.
    • Netcraft (PRG) Names Experienced Technology Executive Ryan Woodley as New CEO.
    • PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) Appoints Experienced Healthcare Finance Strategist Pierre Gravier as Chief Financial Officer.
    • ZGN: Lelio Gavazza Appointed CEO of Tom Ford Fashion.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • NVS launches $15 Billion share buyback. Sandoz generics unit to get spun off in Q4.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • QNRX trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • BNY Mellon (BK) affirms increased quarterly common stock dividend to $0.42 per share from $0.37.
    • China Yuchai (CYD) Board declared cash dividend of US$0.28 per ordinary share.
    • Mercantile Bank (MBWM) raises dividend 3% to $0.34 per share.
    • PNC: Raised quarterly common stock dividend 5 cents to $1.55 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -3, Dow Jones -12,  NASDAQ -20, and Russell 2000 -2. (as of 7:51 a.m. EDT).  Asia lower ex Japan while Europe higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.67 from 15.93 yesterday.  Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher along with Natural Gas. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.762% from 3.785% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $29,979 from $30,224 yesterday, higher by 0.02%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Financial, Industrials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Real Estate  of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Basic Materials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

U.S. stocks rose Monday, riding momentum from last week’s encouraging reports on inflation and bank earnings.  Initially, weighed down by data showing the Chinese economy barely grew in the second quarter, then U.S. stock indexes gathered strength in early trading and then built on those gains as the day progressed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2%, or about 76 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.9%.  Stocks got a boost last week, finishing with gains by all three major indexes, after data showed that the CPI and PPI rose less than anticipated in June. On Friday, the country’s biggest banks reported better-than-expected earnings, buoyed by resilient consumer borrowing.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: 

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: NVS +2.03, LMT +0.18, BK +0.08, PNC +0.07, SYF +0.07, BAC +0.04, SCHW +0.04, MS +0.04 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: PLD of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: NVS, MAIN, LMT of note.
  • Negative Guidance: PNC of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: KPTI +24%, FBK +15%, PTCT +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: MASI -27%, CVM -22%, ABOS -10% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things to Know Before The Stock Market Opens This Morning (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: BK PNC VZ T MASI NVS PINS NCLH. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Yellen Sees Disinflation Forces At Work As Hiring Surge Fades. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Wall Street Banks’ Residential Mortgages Face US Mandates Exceeding Global Standards. (Bloomberg)
  • Bonds rally as ECB Official signals rate reprieve: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • US plans to narrow China technology investments by 2024. (Bloomberg)
  • Secret Service closed the case and destroyed cocaine bag left at White House say Rep Tim Burchett (R-Tenn). (Newsmax)
  • Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) will decide on a third-party run next year. (NBC News)
  • Goldman cuts the odds of a recession next year. (CNBC)
  • US Regulators to release banking capital rule plan next week. (Bloomberg)
  • Jennison analyst led firm to a return on Tesla of 14,800%. (Bloomberg)
  • Chipotle (CMG) signs first-ever franchise deal in the Middle East. (CNBC)
  • Bank of America (BAC) beats estimates on higher rates. (CNBC)
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) beats and raises. Supply chain is growing with strong demand to replenish supplies. (CNBC)
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) beats on revenues and earnings.
  • Peacock (CMCSA) will increase prices by $1 a month. (WSJ)
  • Transocean (RIG) wins a $518 million contract in the Gulf of Mexico from independent operator. (MarketWatch)
  • Powerball rose to $1 billion as no winner on Monday night. Next shot on Wednesday with MegaMillions now at $640 million. (Powerball.com)
  • NPR Most Recent Business Podcast: How China Does The Numbers.  China’s gross domestic product grew 6.3% from the same quarter last year, and an anemic 0.8% since Q1. But what’s the right way to measure China’s economy? But first, we’ll look at uneven inflation around the world and how Federal Reserve officials craft their public statements between market-moving meetings. Later, a check-in on the electric vehicle market as Ford slashes $10,000 off the price of an F-150 Lightning (Listen Here)

Moving Average Update:

  • Day 5 at 100%.  Might have to go into the archives and see what the record is!

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President holds a bilateral meeting with President Isaac Herzog of the State of Israel, 1:15 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President holds a meeting with Cardinal Matteo Zuppi to discuss the widespread suffering caused by Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine, 5:00 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • June Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 0.5% from 0.3%.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • June Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to 0.0% from -0.20%.
  • Business Inventories 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • Housing Market Index 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • The Fed Blackout Period has begun. No Fed speakers between now and the FOMC Wed. 07/26.

M&A Activity:

  • Ares Management (ARES) acquires Crescent Point Capital.
  • Berry Corporation (BRY) Announces Acquisition of Macpherson Energy Corporation for $70 million.
  • Logitech (LOGI) Acquires Loupedeck.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: