CAPIS Morning Note – 06/23/23: Stocks Look To Finish Down Week On A Negative Note

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 4381.89 higher by 0.37% from Wednesday at 4365.69 lower by -0.52%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4427 at 4:55 p.m. EDT while the low was high at 4396.25 at 3:50 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 31 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 4381.89 higher by 0.37% from Wednesday at 4365.69 lower by -0.52%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4427 at 4:55 p.m. EDT while the low was high at 4396.25 at 3:50 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 31 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 19.20 from 17.40. This morning’s range is the highest we have seen since May 5th when it was at 32. The average for May was 21.63. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -22 points and is lower by -0.50% at 7:00 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Thursday Close:

  • Beats:  SWBI +0.03 of note
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: WKC priced $300 million of the aggregate principal amount of 3.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ALVR files a $75 million public offering.
    • IGMS files for a $100 million offering and a concurrent private placement.
    • NXPL files S-3 for 3,428,571 common shares.
    • ADIL files S-1 for 10,199,620 shares of common stock.
    • SMSI files S-3 for 17,096,748 shares of common stock.
  • Direct Offering:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • TYGO files for 49,734,570 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders as well as 5,678,750 shares of common stocks through the exercise of warrants.
    • DM files for 444,793 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
    • TAST files for 14,814,815 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CDXC files a $125 million mixed shelf offering.
    • SPCE files a mixed shelf offering.
    • CHMG files a mixed shelf offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Tender Offer:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: CRNC files a $190 million convertible notes offering. Priced this morning at 1.50%.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: TRUP +14%, IONQ +7%, MGTX +4%, MMM +3%, SWBI +3% of note.
    • Trading Down:  XAIR -9%, SPCE -9%, TAST -3% of note.
  • News After The Close:
    • Science Applications (SAIC) awarded a seven year contract with the Department of the Treasury worth $1.3 billion.
    • Moderna (MRNA) completes submission to FDA for updated COVID-19 vaccine for the XBB.1.5 variant. (Release)
    • Genworth (GNW) exposed to security breach of 2.5 to 2.7 million accounts.
    • Several states join together to try and stop Amgen (AMGN) deal to purchase Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP).
    • 3M (MMM) to enter into a $10.3 billion deal to payout over 13 years for PFAS remediation.
    • Ford (F) begins a new round of layoffs for white-collar workers. (WSJ)
    • Lululemon Athletica having a hard time finding a buyer of Mirror. (NY Post)
    • Treasury Secretary Yellen sees lower risk of recession but wants to slow the consumer. (Bloomberg)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Realty Income (O) names Jonathan Pong as new CFO.
    • Leggett & Platt (LEG) names Benjamin Burns as CFO.
    • Carriage Services (CSV) names Carlos Quezada as CEO effectively immediately and Mel Payne moves to Executive Chairman of the Board.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • No Insider Sales of note after the close..
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • MATX ups quarterly cash dividend to $0.32 from $0.31.
    • SWBI ups dividend by 20%.

S&P 500 -20, Dow Jones -108,  NASDAQ -87, and Russell 2000 -16. (as of 7:55 a.m. EDT).  Asia and Europe is lower. VIX Futures are at 15.97 from 16.40 yesterday.  Gold is higher with Silver and Copper lower yesterday. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil lower with Natural Gas lower as well yesterday. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.737% from 3.76% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $30,100 from $30,22o yesterday, lower by -0.23%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors:  Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Technology and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors:  Energy, Real Estate, Financial, Utilities and Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Communication Services of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close:  None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open:  CCL of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: KMX +0.65, APOG +0.15 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report:  of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: APOG of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: TRUP +13.3%, MGTX +9.3%, SWBI +8.2%, IONQ +7.6%, GSK +6.1%, KMX +6%, MMM +3.7%, CE +3%, HRT +3%, APOG +2.8%, MATX +2.2% of note.
  • Gap Down: SPCE -18.2%, XAIR -8%, ICPT -3.8%, ERAS -3%, TAST -2.7%, AVDL -2.7%, GNW -2.4% of note.

Insider Action:  TLYS sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  ASAN sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves before the bell: SBUX KMX SPCE UA W AI ACN. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: The World’s Empty Office Buildings Have Become A Debt Time Bomb. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story: same as the lead story. (Bloomberg)
  • Bonds surge as activity data raises recession fears: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Starbucks (SBUX) union says that workers at 150 stores to strike over LBGTQIA+ workers’ rights. (Tweet)
  • Carmax (KMX) beats estimates and stock jumps this morning. (MarketWatch)

Moving Average Update:

  • Thursday saw some more ground lost. Now 70% from 77% of the moving averages are positive.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The president receives the Daily Briefing at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
    • President Biden and Prime Minister Modi meet with senior officials and CEOs of American and Indian companies at 11:45 a.m. EDT.
    • President Biden participates in a political event on reproductive rights at 4:00 p.m. EDT.

Economic:

  • June IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (prelim)  due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 48.4.
  • June IHS Markit Services PMI (prelim)  due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 54.90.
  • Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve/Treasury Speakers:  Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard spoke at 5:15 a.m. EDT. Federal Reserve Raphael Bostic spoke at 8:00 a.m. EDT. Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks at 1:40 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity: 

  • None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Roth MKM London Conference
    • Cantor Brain Week One
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: ACRO
  • Fireside Chat:
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: DXCM   
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Policy Summit
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: