CAPIS Morning Note – 06/21/23: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell To Testify on The Hill Today and Tomorrow, Stocks Flat.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 4388.71 lower by -0.47% from Friday at 4409.59 lower by -0.37%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4438.50 around 8:45 p.m. EDT while the low was high at 4423.75 at 3:05 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 15 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 4388.71 lower by -0.47% from Friday at 4409.59 lower by -0.37%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4438.50 around 8:45 p.m. EDT while the low was high at 4423.75 at 3:05 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 15 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 16.50 from 15.80. The average for May was 21.63. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -0.25 points and is lower by -0.01% at 7:00 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Tuesday Close:

  • Beats:  LZB +0.27, FDX +0.09 of note
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
  • New SPACs launched/News:
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: OMF priced $500 million of aggregate principal amount of Senior Notes due 2029.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • FWBI files S-3 common stock offering 0f 3,448,664 shares.
    • PBA files a $500 million public note offering.
  • Direct Offering:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • MSGE files for 5,250,000 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholder.
    • DM files for 444,793 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • OKE files a mixed shelf offering.
    • CCNE files a mixed shelf offering.
    • ARAV files a mixed shelf offering.
    • EURN files a mixed shelf offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Tender Offer:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up:  PCT +9.4%, ABR +7.5%, NWPR +3.5% and EXAS +2.5% of note.
    • Trading Down: LZB -5.7%, MSGE -5.1%, FDX -3.1% of note.
  • News After The Close:
    • Netflix (NFLX) Producer Ryan Murphy to leave for Walt Disney (DIS). (Bloomberg)
    • FedEx (FDX) beats on earnings and misses on revenues.
    • Eni S.p.A. (E) nears deal to buy Neptune Energy Group for $5.0 billion. (Bloomberg)
    • SEC settles charges against Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) (Press Release)
    • Electronic Arts (EA) to divide company into two organizations Electronic Arts Entertainment and Electronic Arts Sports.
    • Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) to replace Ranger Oil (ROCC) in the S&P 600 before trading on 6/23. Ranger acquired by Baytex Energy (BTE).
    • Raytheon Technology (RTX) awarded a $1.15 billion U.S. Air Force contract for Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile Production.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Visa (V) names Chris Suh as CFO. Came from Electronics Arts (EA) where he was the CFO.
    • Electronic Arts (EA) names Stuart Canfield as CFO to replace Chris Suh.
    • AIG names Interim CFO Sabra Purtill as permanent CFO.
    • Catalent (CTLT) names Matti Masanovich as SVP & CFO effective 7/5.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Insider Sales of note after the close CERE ABNB VERX ZI ENSG COHR.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Blackstone Secured Lending (BXSL) ups the quarterly dividend to $0.77 from $0.77.
    • Fulton Financial (FULT) raises dividend to $0.16 a share.

S&P 500 -4, Dow Jones -15,  NASDAQ -29 , and Russell 2000 +0.50. (as of 7:55 a.m. EDT).  Asia lower ex the Nikkei and Europe are lower ex the Dax. VIX Futures are at 16.45 from 16.59 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper lower yesterday. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil lower with Natural Gas higher yesterday. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.75% from 3.761% Tuesday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $28,821 from $26,766 yesterday, higher by 0.48%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors:  None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors:  Basic Materials, Energy, Real Estate and Utilities of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Communication Services of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: KBH SCS of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open:  DRI FDS CMC DOOO GMS of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  WGO +0.35, PDCO +0.14 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report:  of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance:  PDCO of note.
  • Negative Guidance:  LZB of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: PCT +14.9%, EXAS +6.6%, ABR +5.4%, BXSL +3%, DM +2.9%, FULT +2.1% of note.
  • Gap Down: MSGE -6.6%, LZB -5.3%, FDX -3.6%, NPWR -2.5%, ABUS -1.6% of note.

Insider Action:  No names see Insider buying with dumb short selling.  ASAN sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves before the bell: FDX COIN MSTR TSLA SPOT EXAS RIVN  (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Five Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Friday. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: China Says Biden Calling Xi a Dictator is Provocation. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story: Hedging Failure Exposes Private Equity to Interest Rate Surge. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks struggle before Powell; UK rate bets rise: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • China calls President Biden’s comments about President Xi being a dictator “public political provocation”. (Bloomberg)
  • 3M (MMM) could face dividend cut and higher debt amid lawsuits. (WSJ)
  • Weekly mortgage demand is flat despite the drop in rates. (CNBC)
  • Fed Chairman Powell to face tricky task of explaining rate pause next two days. (Yahoo Finance)

Moving Average Update:

  • Tuesday saw several indexes break their 5-day moving average as well as two break their 10-day moving average. Now 80% of the moving averages are positive

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The president receives the Daily Briefing at 12:00 p.m. EDT.
    • The president flies back from the West Coast from 1:05 p.m. EDT to 5:50 p.m. EDT.
    • The president welcomes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House at 6:50 p.m. EDT and then host him for dinner.

Economic:

  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index was out at 7:00 a.m. EDT and rose 0.5% after being up 7.2% last week.
  • Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in front of the House at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Federal Reserve Governor Phillip Jefferson speaks also at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 12:25 p.m. EDT. Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks at 4:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity: 

  • None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Roth MKM London Conference
    • Cantor Brain Week One
    • Capital One Spatial Biology and Proteomics
    • Credit Suisse HOLT USA
    • Credit Suisse Toronto Chemical Conference
    • IDEAS Investor Conference
    • Jefferis Consumer Conference
    • JP Morgan Mexico Opportunities Conference
    • JP Morgan Energy, Power and Renewables Conference
    • Maxim Healthcare Conference
    • Stephens Summer Bank Bash
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: ADSK ATVI EBAY JD NDAQ
  • Fireside Chat:
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ASAI DLTR EQIX EXAS GTEC INTC UPXI  
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Mining Investment Event of the North
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: