CAPIS Morning Note – 06/21/22: Stocks Rebound From Long Weekend As Investors Reconsider Stocks

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 3674.84 (higher by 0.22%)  from 3666.77 (lower by -3.25%) on Thursday. Futures are trading higher overnight. The overnight high of 3749 was hit at 4:15 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3710.25 at 7:30 p.m. EDT, a range of 39.25 points high to low which is…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 3674.84 (higher by 0.22%)  from 3666.77 (lower by -3.25%) on Thursday. Futures are trading higher overnight. The overnight high of 3749 was hit at 4:15 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3710.25 at 7:30 p.m. EDT, a range of 39.25 points high to low which is within the range of late with 45 the average. At 7:20 a.m. EDT the current price is 3743.50 which is 1.84% and 67.75 points.

Breaking News: Kellogg (K) to split into three companies. (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • EJF Acquisition Corp. (EJFA) shareholders approve proposed business combination with Pagaya Technologies; will trade on the Nasdaq under symbol “PGY”.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AGTI: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Common Stock Offering.
    • BHAT: Proposed Underwritten Public Offering of Ordinary Shares and Pre-Funded Warrants to Purchase Ordinary Shares.
    • CREX: Filed Form S-3.. 1,400,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • CEI: Filed Form S-1.. 462,346,364 Shares Common Stock.
    • LEV: ESTABLISHES CROSS-BORDER US$125,000,000 ATM Equity “at-the-market” program.
    • QLGN: Filed Form S-3.. 8,161,312 Shares.
    • RZLT: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 10,947,371 Shares of Common Stock Issuable upon Conversion of Warrants.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • FXLV: Filed Form S-1.. 18,857,319 Shares offering by selling shareholders.
    • LOCL: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 7,587,531 Shares of Common Stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • PTE: Filed Form S-1.. 4,752,477 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholder.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AGFY: Filed Form S-3.. $200 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • SCM: Filed Form N-2.. $300,000,000? Mixed Shelf.
    • FMC: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • NFBK: Completes Private Placement of $62.0 Million of Subordinated Notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: CLVS 74.9%, RIGL 62.0%, EDU 33.2%, QD 24.6%, SGEN 19.9%, CO 19.6%, HRTX 17.1%, RDUS 16.4%, GBT 15.7%, PRTY 15.6%, KZR 15.0%, ADAP 14.1%, NIO 14.0%, TCDA 12.9%, SQQQ 12.8%, ATRA 12.2%, FOLD 11.2%, FDX 11.2%.
    • Trading Down: EBIX -36.4%, BOOM -31.7%, BZH -29.6%, TRHC -28.3%, LPI -27.1%, IVR -26.6%, OIS -26.3%, SWN -25.9%, CIVI -25.4%, RYAM -25.4%, GEL -25.4%, NOG -25.3%, CNX -24.9%, NINE -24.7%, CRK -24.6%, EQT -24.4%, LIND -24.3%, KLXE -24.2%.
  • News Items After the Close:.
    • President Biden’s team negotiates fresh economic plan as inflation antidote (Bloomberg)
    • Home sales post rare May decline as mortgage rates rise — Redfin reports home sales fell in May for only the second time on record, while home prices saw the smallest May increase on record.
    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) awarded a $458 million US Navy contract.
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded a $578.2 million modification to a previously awarded US Navy contract.
    • Russian/Ukraine News:
      • Russia’s Security Council Secretary
        • Russian Retaliatory Measures “Will Have A Serious Negative Impact On Lithuanian Population”.
        • Russia Will Retaliate After “Blockade” Of Kaliningrad Region By Lithuania; Lithuanian Decision Is “Hostile”.
        • Russia’s President Putin Says Sarmat Ballistic Missile will be deployed for duty by the year end.
        • President Putin says Russia will strengthen its Armed Forces.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks that Defined the Week: TWTR, META, MSFT, COP, DVN, FANG   (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: The Fed Goes Big.  (NYT)
    • Germany Steps Up Measures to Conserve Gas as Russia Slows Supply to Europe. (WSJ)
    • Weekend Reading: Masters of the Bubbleverse secretive hedge fund Tiger Global changed the rules on tech investing. Then it all went bad. (New York)
    • Germany reports annual producer inflation of 33.6% in May, the highest on record.
    • Fed’s rate hikes will take a couple of years to bring inflation to 2%, Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester.
    • JetBlue (JBLU) raises offer for Spirit (SAVE) to $33.50 per share from $31.50.
    • Exxon (XOM) CEO: Oil Markets Could Be Looking At 3 To 5 Years Of Continued ‘Tightness’.
    • Apple (AAPL) store workers in Maryland vote to form first U.S. union. (NYT)
    • Twitter Inc (TWTR): Board Of Directors Unanimously Recommends Stockholders Vote “for” The Adoption Of The Merger Agreement.
    • Goldman Sachs (GS) sees a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, up from its previous forecast of 15%, amid record-high inflation and a weak macroeconomic backdrop fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    • President Biden announces intent to appoint Marilynn Malerba as Treasurer of the United States.
    • Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) supports another 75 basis point rate hike.
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: BLK, AB, BEN, IVZ, TROW, ORCL, C, ARCB, TFII, KNX, WERN, SNDR.
      • Cautious View: DIS, ETSY, NFLX, BA, CSX, NSC.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Autohome (ATHM) announced that Mr. Haifeng Shao has stepped down from his role as a co-president of the Company due to his other personal commitments.
    • Barnes Group (B) appoints Thomas J. Hook as President and Chief Executive Officer; CEO Patrick Dempsey to become Executive Vice Chairman of Barnes.
    • Bit Origin Ltd (BTOG) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • Brooklyn ImmunoTherapeutics (BTX) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • Burning Rock (BNR) Announces Plan to Pursue An Alternative Listing.
    • Connect Biopharma (CNTB) Announces Receipt of NASDAQ Deficiency Notice Regarding Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • Entera Bio (ENTX) Announces Departure of Dr. Phillip Schwartz, the Company’s President of Research & Development to Pursue Outside Opportunities
    • Galmed Pharmaceuticals (GLMD) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Notification.
    • G Medical Innovations Holdings Ltd. (GMVD) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Notification.
    • Janus Henderson Group (JHG): Ali Dibadj joins Janus Henderson as Chief Executive Officer and Director.
    • Janus International Group (JBI) appoints Anselm Wong as Executive Vice President and CFO.
    • Medigus (MDGS) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notice of Bid Price Deficiency.
    • MEDNAX (MD) will change its name to Pediatrix Medical Group after the close of the market on 7/1/22.
    • New Residential Investment (NRZ) to change its name and rebrand as Rithm Capital (RITM).
    • Team, Inc. (TISI) receives continued listing standard notice from NYSE.
    • Versus Systems (VS) Receives NASDAQ Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • Acushnet (GOLF) announces it will repurchase up to $75 million in shares held by Magnus Holdings.
    • Burning Rock (BNR) Announces US$10 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • LiveOne (LVO) Completed the Repurchase of Approximately 1.2 Million Shares of Its Common Stock Totaling $1 Million.
    • Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (NFBK) Announces New $45.0 Million Stock Repurchase Program.
    • Southwestern Energy (SWN) announces $1 billion share repurchase program.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Announces Further Enhancement To Its Capital Return Program And Intention To Increase Base Dividend by 7.1%.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +50, Dow Jones +389, NASDAQ +157, and Russell 2000 +23. Europe higher and Asia higher ex Shanghai down -0.26%.  VIX Futures are at 31.35 from 31.40  on Thursday morning and the VIX closed at 32.95 from 29.62 yesterday. Gold lower with Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Oil Futures higher and Natural Gas lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 3.271% from 3.222% yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $21,263.56 from  $21,113 Friday morning and is higher by 6.06% this morning. As of 8:05 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – 06/17/22 Close (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):   

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, Communication Services, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Cyclical and Basic Materials none of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy and Utilities none of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Quadruple witching had the indexes spike both ways, ultimately having the indexes close a horrible week in the green.  Updated 06/17/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: LZB of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: KFY, PDCO, WGO of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: LEN +0.74.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: none of note.
  • Negative Guidance: HIMX of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 06/17/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: VALN +84%, SAVE +10%, ALV +8%, TRMR +6%, SHEL +6%, BP +6%, LEN +5%, HIMX +5%, BNR +4%, TTE +4%, IREN +4%.
  • Gap Down: LEV -6%, EJFA -4%.

Insider Action: NMFC, VST sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 06/17/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: K, LEN, SAVE, MDLZ, TSLA (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Tesla (TSLA) to cut workforce by 3.5%. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: President Biden says recession not inevitable after call with former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers. (Bloomberg)
  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says Ukraine War could last for years. (Bild De)
  • Germany will restart coal plants after Russia lowers natural gas supplies. (WSJ)
  • Russian oil flows to Europe have starting moving higher again. (Bloomberg)
  • President Biden not to make China tariffs before G7 meeting next week. (Reuters)
  • Food prices get reprieve as Wheat and Oil seeds fall in price. (Bloomberg)
  • Consumers are slowing services spending amid inflation. (The Washington Post)
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen says expects economy to slow no recession and said a gas tax holiday and tariff relief would be a positive. (ABC News)
  • Nightmare in the air as 10,000 flights were delayed or cancelled over the long weekend. (NBC News)

Moving Average Update:

  • Red across the board….again.  Score remains at zero.  Updated 06/17/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, 10:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President has lunch with The Vice President, 12:45 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady visit a local COVID-19 vaccination clinic hosted by the District of Columbia’s Department of Health to highlight the recent authorization and recommendation of COVID-19 vaccines for children under age five, 2:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks on COVID-19 vaccines for children under five and the historic progress the country has made in fighting COVID-19 with safe, effective vaccines available to virtually all Americans, 3:45 p.m. EDT

Economic

  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index  8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Philly Fed Non-Mfg Survey 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Existing Home Sales 10:00 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 11:00 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 12:00 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 3:30 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • Mondelez Int’l (MDLZ) acquires Clif Bar & Company for $2.9 billion.
  • RADA Electronic Industries (RADA) & Leonardo DRS agree to all-stock merger

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Technology Media and Communications Conference 2022 (06/21/22-06/22/22)
    • Bank of America Napa Biopharma Conference 2022 (06/21/22-06/22/22)
    • Berenberg SDG Conference 2022 (06/21/22-06/22/22)
    • Credit Suisse Mobility Virtual Forum 2022
    • Goldman Sachs Leisure & Transport Conference 2022
    • Jefferies Airlines Summit
    • JP Morgan Healthcare Services Value Based Care Summit 2022
    • Lytham Partners Summer Investor Conference 2022 (06/21/22-06/22/22)
    • ROTH 8th Annual London Conference 2022 (06/21/22-06/23/22)
    • UBS Latam Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Jefferies Consumer Conference 2022 (06/20/22-06/22/22)
        • HSBC Global Digital Finance Forum 2022 (06/20/22-06/30/22)
        • UBS Taiwan Conference 2022 (06/20/22-06/22/22)
        • Piper Sandler Global Exchange & FinTech Virtual Event 2022 (06/20/22-06/23/22)
        • HSBC 6th Annual Asia Credit Conference 2022 (06/13/22-06/24/22)
  • Company Meetings: ATVI, JD, MA, MET.
  • Fireside Chat:
    • Lowe’s (LOW) Virtual Fireside Chat Hosted by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.
    • Nordstrom (JWN) Fireside Chat Hosted by Telsey Advisory Group 2022.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: CRSP, DNBBY, EWTX, JNJ, NRZ, SR, TGT.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) Innovation Day 2022.
    • eXp (EXPI) Shareholder Summit 2022 (06/19/22-06/21/22)
  • Industry Meetings:
    • International Consumer Product Health and Safety Organization (ICPHSO) North America Product Safety Training Workshop 2022 (06/21/22-06/22/22)
    • American Bankers Association’s Regulatory Compliance Conference 2022 (06/21/22-06/24/22)
    • Facing Today(R)s Challenges in Pancreatic Cancer Treatment
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • International Microwave Symposium (IMS) 2022 (06/19/22-06/24/22)
        • Drug Information Association (DIA) Global Annual Meeting (06/19/22-06/23/22)
        • European Association for Cancer Research(EACR) Congress 2022 (06/20/22-06/23/22)
        • ChemCon Europe 2022 (06/20/22-06/24/22)
        • Customer Contact Week Las Vegas 2022 (06/20/22-06/23/22)
        • Connect IT Global Las Vegas 2022 (06/20/22-06/23/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: