CAPIS Morning Note – 06/07/22: S&P 500 Drops -34 As Target Warns About Q2 Margins Drops -8%, Other Retailers Hit As Well.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 4121.30 (higher by 0.31%) from 4108.64 (lower by -1.63%) on Friday. Futures have trading lower overnight. The overnight high of 4126 was hit at 4:00 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4085.75 at 1:30 a.m. EDT, a range of 41 points high to low which is…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 4121.30 (higher by 0.31%) from 4108.64 (lower by -1.63%) on Friday. Futures have trading lower overnight. The overnight high of 4126 was hit at 4:00 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4085.75 at 1:30 a.m. EDT, a range of 41 points high to low which is near the range of late with 45 the average. At 7:20 a.m. EDT the current price is 4087 which is -0.81% and -33.50 points.

Breaking News: Target (TGT) warns on Q2 margins but reaffirms revenue growth in the low to mid-single digit range. Shares off -8%. Other retailers hit as well. (Reuters)

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: GTLB +0.08, COUP +0.03.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BDSX: Filed Form S-3.. 2,877,092 Shares of Common Stock.
    • HNVR: Hanover Bancorp, Inc. Announces Closing on Overallotment Option and Issuance of 191,250 Shares of Common Stock.
    • MODD: Filed Form S-1.. 1,438,202 shares of common stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes:
    • PFHC: Partial Exercise of Underwriters’ Over-Allotment Option.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • INM: Announces Closing of $5 Million Registered Direct and Private Placement Offerings Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • MHO: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • RWT: Prices offering of $200 million of its 7.75% convertible senior notes due 2027.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: GTLB +9%, VERU +5%.
    • Trading Down: None of note.
  • News Since The Close:
    • SEC Closes In on Rules That Could Reshape How Stock Market Operates. (WSJ)
    • Reserve Bank of Australia decided to increase the cash rate target by 50 basis points to 85 basis points.
    • Oil:
      • Morgan Stanley: Continues To See Brent Reaching $130/Bbl During Third Quarter In Base Case, With Upside To Bull Case Estimate Of $150/Bbl.
      • Goldman Sachs hikes 3Q oil forecast to $140 on the deficit. 3Q at $140/bbl vs $125 4Q at $130 vs $125 1Q at $130 vs $115 GS forecasts Brent will need to avg $135/bbl in 2H22 to 1H23 for inventories to finally normalize by late next year (+$10/bbl from previous forecast)
    • CDC raises Monkeypox alert to level 2, recommends masks during travel. (NYPost)
    • Twitter (TWTR): Texas AG launches investigation into TWTR over fake bot accounts.
    • Retractable Technologies, Inc. (RVP) Announces Reduction in Workforce by 16%.
    • Russian/Ukraine News
      • U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says reports Russia is pilfering Ukraine’s grain exports for its own profit are credible.
      • Russia Is Weaponizing Food Supplies in Ukraine, Europe Says. (WSJ)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Cazoo (CZOO) announces business realignment plan.
    • Green Dot (GDOT) settles litigation with Republic Bank & Trust Company.
    • Hippo (HIPO) announces appointment of Richard McCathron as CEO.
    • Peloton (PTON) appoints Liz Coddington as Chief Financial Officer. (CNBC)
    • Philips (PHG) names Willem Appelo as COO.
    • Remitly Global (RELY) appoints Hemanth Munipalli CFO.
    • Sanofi (SNY) launches 2022 global Employee Stock Purchase Plan for 86,000 people.
    • SmileDirectClub (SDC) Appoints Troy Crawford as Chief Financial Officer.
    • TreeHouse Foods (THS) Announces CFO Transition.
    • TIAN RUIXIANG Holdings Ltd (TIRX) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • Zoom Video (ZM) appoints Greg Tomb as President.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • ESSA Bancorp, Inc. (ESSA) Announces Authorization of Stock Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -34, Dow Jones -215, NASDAQ -145, and Russell 2000 -14. Europe lower and Asia mixed.  VIX Futures are at 26.30 from 25.40 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 25.07 from 24.79 yesterday. Gold higher with Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Oil Futures lower and Natural Gas higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 3.018% from 2.953% from yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $29,470.64 from $31,410 yesterday morning and is lower by -6.00% this morning. As of 8:07 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – 06/06/22 Close (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):   

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Basic Materials, Industrials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Basic Materials of note.

Markets ended in the green, but it really did not feel like it.  After an initial solid starts, indexes pulled back through the day as rates climbed.  Updated 06/06/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • TuesdayAfter the Close: CASY, GWRE, SMAR, VRNT, CURV of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: CPB, THO, OLLI, KC, LOVE, VRA of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: SJM +0.34, MOMO +0.32, PLAY +0.21, GIII +0.12, UNFI +0.12.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: REVG (0.07).
  • Still to Report: ASO, CBRL.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: HQY, GTLB, TSCO, UNFI, GIII of note.
  • Negative Guidance: MOMO, ECL, REVG, EHC of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 06/06/22 close.

 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: KSS +14%, RWT +12%, GTLB +10%, NVAX +4%.
  • Gap Down: RVP -8%.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  TCDA, QUOT, RPID sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 06/06/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: TGT SJM KSS UNFI (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Inflation ready to ease according to DRAM prices, Drewry Shipping Index and Fertilizer prices. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Amazon (AMZN) split delivers more than bargained for, as shares drop with high price effect gone. (Bloomberg)
  • Chinese economist calls for China to seize Taiwan if U.S. increases sanctions against China. (Bloomberg)
  • Universal Beijing to reopen on June 15th. (Reuters)
  •  U.S. wants Mexico to investigate Stellantis (STLA) for labor rights violations. (Reuters)
  • Fitch upgrades Wells Fargo (WFC) debt from negative to stable. (MarketWatch)
  • Highlights of Apple (AAPL) Developers Conference yesterday. (WSJ)
  • Bitcoin falls back under $30,000. (Bloomberg)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at Elon Musk and his buyer’s remorse over Twitter (TWTR). President Biden appears to boost solar panel production but his clean energy plan is not “sunny”.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes to 48% from 45%.  Updated 06/06/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President signs into law nine bipartisan bills that honor and improve care for veterans; the Secretary of Veterans Affairs attends, 2:45 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • International Trade in Goods 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • Consumer Credit 3:00 p.m. EDT
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appears before the Senate Finance Committee at 10 a.m. EDT.

M&A Activity:

  • Kohl’s (KSS): Franchise Group proposal to buy for $60 per share.
  • TrueCar (TRUE) acquires California-based Digital Motors.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Securities Global Technology Conference 2022 (06/07/22-06/09/22)
    • The BMO Rare Earth Supply Chain Conference
    • Cowen Sustainability & Energy Transition Summit 2022 (06/07/22-06/08/22)
    • Credit Suisse European Materials Conference 2022 (06/07/22-06/08/22)
    • Credit Suisse Asia Consumer Corporate Day 2022 (06/07/22-06/09/22)
    • Evercore ISI Consumer & Retail Summit 2022 (06/07/22-06/10/22)
    • Goldman Sachs Global Semiconductor Conference 2022
    • Goldman Sachs Annual European Financial Services Conference 2022 (06/07/22-06/09/22)
    • LD Micro Invitational XII 2022 (06/07/22-06/09/22)
    • JP Morgan Southern Cone & Andean Opportunities Conference 2022 (06/07/22-06/09/22)
    • JP Morgan Automotive Conference 2022 (06/07/22-06/08/22)
    • JP Morgan Chase Silicon Carbide (SiC) & Gallium Nitride (GaN) Week (virtual) (06/07/22-06/09/22)
    • Needham 6th Annual Automotive Tech Conference 2022
    • RBC Capital Markets 29th Annual Global Energy, Power and Infrastructure Conference 2022 (06/07/22-06/08/22)
    • Stifel Virtual Cross Sector Insight Conference CSI 2022 (06/07/22-06/09/22)
    • UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference 2022 (06/07/22-06/08/22) 
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Baird 21st Annual Global Consumer Technology & Services Conference 2022 (06/06/22-06/08/22)
        • Bank of America Securities 2022 Innovative China Conference(05/30/22-06/10/22)
        • Barclays Business Services ESG Summit 2022 (06/06/22-06/08/22)
        • Gartner Supply Chain Symposium/Xpo 2022 (06/06/22-06/08/22)
        • Goldman Sachs 2022 Virtual Insurtech Conference (06/06/22-06/07/22)
        • Goldman Sachs Travel and Leisure Conference 2022 (06/06/22-06/07/22)
        • HSBC 16th Annual Transport and Logistics Conference – part of the Future Transport series 2022 (06/06/22-06/10/22)
        • Raymond James Silicon Valley Visit 2022 (06/06/22-06/08/22)
        • William Blair 42nd Annual Growth Stock Conference 2022 (06/06/22-06/09/22)
  • Company Meetings: GPRO, PENN, TJX, URBN.
  • Fireside Chat:
    • Aridis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARDS) Fireside Chat Presented by Maxim Group LLC and Hosted by M-Vest 2022.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BIOC, BOSSY, CANO, CABGY, HUBB, HYZN, IBM, KMDA, LLY, PD, PMVP, XLNX.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • AAPL Annual Worldwide Developers Conference (06/06/22-06/10/22)
    • Qualys Security Conference San Francisco 2022 (06/06/22-06/08/22)
    • HSBC Capital Markets Forum 2022
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Psychiatric Association Annual Meeting (Online version) 2022 (06/06/22-06/10/22)
    • NAREIT REITweek Investor Conference 2022 (06/06/22-06/09/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • American Society for Mass Spectrometry’s 70th Annual Meeting
        • American Society of Clinical Oncology ASCO Annual Meeting 2022 (06/03/22-06/07/22)
        • American Diabetes Association (ADA) 82nd Scientific Sessions 2022 (06/03/22-06/07/22)
        • American Transplant Congress 2022 (ATC) (06/03/22-06/08/22)
        • AIHA Petrochemical Summit 2022 (06/05/22-06/07/22)
        • American Association of Airport Executives Conference & Exposition 2022 (06/05/22-06/08/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: